On the hot search list in 2023, topics about the high price of gold have repeatedly appeared: "gold prices have reached a new high", "young people have begun to be keen to buy", "global central banks are hoarding gold" ......At the end of the year, **still maintaining a high level** is still hot in the traditional consumption season. According to CCTV News on December 24, no matter what.
First- and second-tier cities, still.
In third- and fourth-tier cities, consumption is a hot scene.
Recently, the reporter visited the Caishikou Department Store in Xicheng District, Beijing, and found that although the gold price is still high, the gold jewelry sales area on the first floor is crowded, and consumers are enthusiastic about buying gold. At the same time, the sales staff of many gold jewellery brands also frequently display new products of their own brands on WeChat Moments, including related products such as "Natal Year" and "National Tide Style".
Except. In addition to the first- and second-tier cities, consumers in the third- and fourth-tier cities are also more likely to have a hot demand for gold. "On this year's National Day, the child bought me a ** bracelet, and it is almost the New Year, thinking that many businesses have ** plans, and I want to add some gold goods. A lady surnamed Liu, who lives in a small county town in the north, told reporters that buying ** jewelry is also a good investment.
The price of gold rose by more than 13% during the year
In fact, there are both consumer goods and investment products, and the interaction of the two roles determines the performance of the product. Overall, factors such as jewellery and technology processing, as well as global central bank demand for gold, have also had an impact on market trends.
So, how has *** performed this year?From an international point of view, on December 4, COMEX broke through the $2,100 ounce mark and reached a maximum of $2,152$3 an ounce, an all-time high. From the perspective of the whole year, as of December 22 this year, the cumulative increase of comex*** has reached about 1305%。If calculated from November last year, that is, the starting point of this round of gold price rally, comex*** has accumulated 25 as of December 2283%。
The performance in 2023 can be described as 'resilient', and in addition to technology, the overall style continues to be strong and upward. Liu Siyuan, chief analyst of Lingxiu Finance, said in an interview with the reporter that from a fundamental point of view, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, international geopolitical conflicts and the continuous purchase of spot by central banks are the main influencing factors. For example, the international geopolitical conflict that emerged in early October this year triggered a rapid rise from a short-term low.
As Liu Siyuan said, 2023 has also become a year for global central banks to buy gold aggressively. According to the information released by the World ** Association on December 15, recently, An Kai, the head of global research of the World ** Association, said that in the first three quarters of 2023, the global ** demand remained stable and exceeded the average of the past decade, mainly due to the net purchase of the central bank and the development of the jewelry manufacturing industry. According to the results of the 2023 Global Central Bank Reserve Survey, more than 70% of the central banks surveyed expect global reserves to increase in the next 12 months.
Overall, global central banks and official institutions have doubled their demand for purchases compared to their long-term averages, which has led to important structural changes in the market. Inflation, geopolitical risks, and the multipolarity of the global reserve currency system have driven the trend of central bank purchases, which may continue for years or even decades, and are expected to further support the performance of **, Ankai said.
How will gold prices go next year?
For the performance of gold prices next year, the interviewed experts generally expressed optimism. Liu Siyuan said: "It is expected that 2024 will be a 'small bull market', and it may face a decline or a strong situation after the rise." ”
He further analyzed that the inflection point is mostly ahead of the turning point of the interest rate cycle, so although Fed Chairman Powell only said that he would cut interest rates in the future in December, the market has treated it as a rate cut, and it has risen directly to a record high. The Federal Reserve, which is facing huge debt pressure, is expected to start a cycle of interest rate cuts between March and May 2024. Therefore, the beginning of 2024 is likely to remain hot, and with the help of the Fed's interest rate cut, it will hit a new high. However, after actually entering the interest rate cut cycle in the second half of next year, the *** that has been overdrawn is likely to appear**.
With the current Fed tightening cycle nearing its end, 2024 is expected to perform relatively well. Yuan Shuai, executive vice president of the Institute for the Promotion of Agriculture, Culture and Tourism Industry, told the reporter that because with the gradual normalization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the risk-free interest rate in the market may fall, which will form a certain support for such non-yield assets. At the same time, if there is a risk of a "recession" in the US economy in the future, or if international geopolitical tensions escalate, ** may play its safe-haven nature and attract more investors.
From the perspective of investors, Liu Siyuan reminded that the change is ahead of the policy change, and there are still "small bull market" opportunities before the Fed cuts interest rates and in the early stage of the interest rate cut next year.