On December 4, local time, South Korea's ** Yoon Suk-yeol announced a reshuffle of the cabinet and the replacement of 6 ministers. This is the largest cabinet personnel reshuffle that Yoon Suk-yeol has made so far when he is about to pass the halfway point of his term. Previously, Yoon Suk-yeol's ** office was also reshuffled at the end of November, and all chief secretaries were replaced.
Yoon Suk-yeol (center) at the South Korean cabinet reshuffle ceremony on December 4. Visual: It is a tradition in South Korean politics for China to reshuffle its cabinet before the National Assembly election year and release ministers to "fight" in local constituencies. And because *** must resign before January 11 next year to participate in the parliamentary election, December is the deadline for a cabinet reshuffle. The most important person to step down in the reshuffle, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs and Minister of Strategy and Finance Choo Kyung-ho, announced in August that he would return to the Diet election. Choo Kyung-ho, who is a professional economist, has a good reputation in Daegu Metropolitan City, and has repeatedly served as the head of the conservative camp's parliamentary campaign in South Korea's fourth-largest city. Choo Kyung-ho's exit shows the importance that the ruling People's Power Party attaches to the 2024 parliamentary election. After all, according to the results of the majority polls, the opposition Democratic Party of Korea is likely to maintain or even expand its majority position in the Diet. This means that Yoon Suk-yeol may face congressional constraints throughout his term, almost a "political death sentence". In the face of a difficult electoral situation, a cabinet reshuffle must be carried out, but there are certain risks: large-scale personnel changes may trigger voters to doubt the continuity of the ruling party's policies, and even perceive the ruling party as internally unstable;On the other hand, if too many new faces are introduced, it will be difficult to achieve governance results in the short term, which will lower voters' evaluation of the ruling party. In view of this, Yoon Suk-yeol's cabinet reshuffle has comprehensively "sought stability". Yonhap News Agency commented that Yoon Suk-yeol appointed Park Chun-sub, the current of the Bank of Korea, as the chief secretary of the economy, when he adjusted the senior office at the end of November, while Choi Sang-mo, the outgoing chief secretary of the economy, took over as the deputy prime minister for economy and minister of strategy and finance in the cabinet reshuffle. This "all-in-the-box" approach means that even as calls for policy change and structural reform are high, "policy coherence and communication within the economic team are still given the highest priority". In addition, half of the six new ministers are women, and most of them are professional and industry experts, and they have also been commented by South Korea** as "clearly considering balance" so as not to affect the perception of voters. With the exception of Choi Sang-mok, the new ministers do not have much experience in political parties. However, the shrewd choice cannot hide the personnel turmoil behind this reshuffle. Since the beginning of this year, many of Yoon Suk-yeol's high-level departments have undergone large-scale adjustments that are rare since South Korea's "democratization". In March, Kim Sung-han, head of the National Security Office of South Korea's ** Office and the top head of diplomatic security and unification affairs of Yoon Suk-yeol**, suddenly announced his resignation.
At the end of June, Yoon Suk-yeol replaced the unification minister, the first official and the unification secretary of the ** office with three "outsiders", marking a "big change" of South Korea's high-level officials against the DPRK. South Korea** reported that the "people are panicking" in the Unification Ministry, and the current reform "requires the Unification Ministry to completely change its functions, methods and thinking", and the Democratic Party of Korea even pointed out that the Unification Ministry has become a "Unification and Destruction Ministry". On November 26, Kim Kyu-hyun, director of the National Intelligence Service, South Korea's top intelligence agency, and the first and second ministers submitted their resignations to Yoon Suk-yeol on the same day, which was approved. Yoon Suk-yeol's office has not disclosed the nominees for the successor president, nor has it explained the reasons for this unprecedented "high-level general resignation" of the National Intelligence Agency. It is worth noting that the departments in which these personnel turmoil occurred were all involved in diplomacy and reunification.
First, security matters, and in the past have been relatively detached from partisan politics. Seo Hoon, the famous "special envoy of the DPRK and the ROK", who has served as vice minister and president of the National Intelligence Agency, has been reused by Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in. But after Yoon Suk-yeol took office, South Korean prosecutors have prosecuted Suh Hoon on a series of decision-making issues related to North Korea. Perhaps because the turmoil was too violent, Yoon Suk-yeol**'s cabinet reshuffle was much smaller than originally planned. At the end of November, a source in the ruling party revealed to ** that "more than half" of the 19 cabinet members would be replaced in December, and that the cabinet reshuffle and personnel adjustment of the ** office would be carried out simultaneously. But in fact, the cabinet reshuffle released this time is later than the personnel change of the ** room, and it only involves 6 ministers, including the first minister Park Jin, who was rumored to be replaced. This is especially striking in the wake of Busan's failed diplomatic campaign to host the Expo. Whether it is a downsizing of the reshuffle or a "gradual" reshuffle, it shows that Yoon Suk-yeol wants to show stability to the outside world. However, when the ** office has repeatedly avoided "what happened to the National Intelligence Agency", it is difficult to recover the sluggish approval rating by relying on a few experts and female "new faces".