The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for 16 months, and we believe that three battles are the most impressive in this conflict.
The first time was when the Russian Airborne Forces suddenly attacked Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, at the very beginning of the conflict, and then mysteriously withdrew. It was only recently that Putin made public the truth at that time: in March last year, Russia and Ukraine signed a temporary peace agreement, with several world powers as guarantors, but as soon as the Russian army left Kyiv, Ukraine violated the agreement. This is the most likely end of the conflict and the most complete of the territory of Ukraine.
The second time was in Mariupol, the first time that the Chechen armed forces showed the world their toughness, they used brutal means to eliminate the elite Ukrainian forces, and also encountered NATO mercenaries.
The third was the just-concluded Battle of **Mut. Having learned from the previous two campaigns, Russia decided to give the Wagner mercenary group a preemptive strike, and later they became the main force in the ground war. But the decision was not made because of how much Putin trusted Wagner, but because he took advantage of their identity.
Wagner fighting alone can allow Russia to do not have to bear any legal responsibility and consequences, massively kill and injure Ukrainian soldiers, and can also use primitive and barbaric methods to deal with NATO mercenary prisoners, with the aim of deterring the enemy. But we must not forget that most of Wagner's combat effectiveness depends on the supplies and support provided by the regular Russian army, which Wagner itself does not have.
Obviously, Wagner is the tool that Russia throws into the battlefield in order to avoid risks, and Moscow has other similar tools. Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner, is well aware of this. For example, Gazprom and Rosneft also have their own private armies, they have also appeared in various battlefields, and Wagner is a competitor, but they are not as strong and more ** than Wagner.
Wagner has such a status not only because it was the first to be established, has the most extensive business, and has the most practical experience, but also because its leader is Putin's cook.
To get back to the point, the fate and whereabouts of Prigozhin, its head Prigozhin, since the mutiny of Wagner, is still uncertain, but Wagner's domestic business will definitely be completely banned.
On the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, Wagner will no longer have the opportunity to fight alone. This must be a huge surprise for the Ukrainian army, which already sees Wagner as a demon. But this feeling of ease will soon disappear, because they will soon run into another "big devil" Chechen armed forces, and will also see the true strength of the regular Russian army.
Of course, the situation on the battlefield will change at any time, and there will definitely be situations where it is inconvenient for the Russian regular army to shoot and Russia will face legal risks. We believe that at that time, Russia will send other mercenary organizations to fight in a stealthy identity, and may also organize Wagner's mercenaries into a death squad to continue to play their ferocious advantages.
In addition, the fact that this Wagner mutiny can be resolved quickly directly proves that Russia has strong control, quick response capabilities, and superb means of dealing with internal crises. Very much in line with the characteristics of the fighting nation. This will certainly disappoint the United States and the West and Ukraine, and means that it is impossible to expect major internal turmoil in Russia, at least in the short term. The issue of the Russia-Ukraine conflict still needs to be resolved on the battlefield. This is simply a kind of despair for Ukraine, which has suffered heavy losses in troops and is logistically powerless.
Therefore, we believe that as long as the follow-up work of Wagner's mutiny goes smoothly and there are no more accidents, the process of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be greatly accelerated, and the Russian army will be more combat-ready and creative.