The 204th issue of the research value group [unraveling new high stocks] series.
Jessica, Literature and Research Value Group
Editorial Value Group Jessica
December 18th,China Transport Marine Energy（600026.SH) 10cm daily limit, closing at 1272 yuan shares, with a market value of 60.7 billion yuan.
The four major shipping giants suspended Red Sea shipping
On the news side, December 15,Affected by attacks by Houthi militants in Yemen, Maersk announced the suspension of all its container ships in the Red Sea until further notice. On the same day, Hapag-Lloyd also announced the suspension of its container ships in the Red Sea, at least until December 18. On December 16, MSC and CMA CGM also announced the suspension of ships passing through the Suez Canal route in the Red Sea until further notice. So far,All four major shipping companies suspended the Red Sea route
In this regard, Guohai** pointed out that once the key shipping lanes are interrupted, it will force ships to detour to increase the demand for tonne-kilometer, and if the Suez Canal is blocked, these ships have almost no other choice but to detour from the Cape of Good Hope in the southern section of Africa, which will add an additional 9,000 kilometers of voyage and 6-14 days of detour time. At the same time, some ships may be blocked in the canal or temporarily change the course, which will greatly reduce the cargo arrival rate and cause panic among cargo owners**. The risk of freight rates** increases dramatically during the lockdown of shipping lanes
China Securities Construction Investment** said,The suspension of the four major shipping companies will cause the loss of effective capacity on the Asia-Europe route by about 12%, which will increase the degree of cashing in the recent freight rate of shipping companies。If the Red Sea route is completely impassable, the effective capacity of the Asia-Europe route will be lost by about 21%. The bypass will promote the freight rates of LR2 ships, Suez and Aframaxes to rise significantly, and some VLCCs will indirectly benefit from the transfer of barges in the Suez Canal.
According to incomplete statistics, the Suez Canal has been blocked 6 times in history due to war conflicts, ship grounding and other reasons, and the blockade time ranges from a few hours to 8 years.
The agency saidIn the shipping segment, the supply of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers is tight, and the redundant capacity is insufficient, and any risk event that leads to damage to navigation efficiency may drive the freight rate up rapidly。The container shipping industry is solid and has benefited most from the Suez Canal's inefficiencies.
Equity incentives demonstrate confidence
Through continuous acquisitions, China Transport Maritime Energy has integrated to:Oil and LNGThe layout of the main business for the two cores has been preliminarily completed;As the oil transportation market enters a boom cycle, the company's full-ship tanker fleet has a significant upward performance elasticity.
As of the third quarter of 2023, Sinotrans Shipping Energy owns and controls 155 oil tankers with a controlled capacity of 22.74 million deadweight tonsThe largest oil tanker in the world
Currently,The growth rate of tanker capacity has slowed, shipyard tanker orders are at an all-time low;Under the background of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, shipbuilding costs are high, shipowners' shipbuilding demand is sluggish, and the tanker market cannot replenish capacity in time.
At the same time,The tanker fleet is aging significantly, 15 years old ships accounted for 33%, the shadow fleet continues to absorb old capacity, but the EU sanctions are frequent, the conventional market is expected to accelerate the clearance of old ships, short-term capacity tightened, and the freight rate curve will be steeper.
Under the background of carbon neutrality, the eastward movement of refineries, superimposed on the high export level of the United States, the lengthening of the distance of oil tankers will effectively support the transportation demand, and the long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a positive impact on the transformation of the first pattern and the increase in demand per ton kilometer.
Global demand is slowly recovering, China's post-epidemic travel demand has been boosted significantly, and jet fuel demand supports optimistic expectations for the whole yearOECD** Global oil demand is still expandingSinotrans is expected to continue to benefit from the increase in downstream demand
In the first three quarters of 2023, China Transport Haineng achieved an operating income of 1653.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3337%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 371.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48049%；Deduct non-net profit of 332.4 billion yuanA year-on-year increase of 41814%
Recently, China Transport Marine EnergyAnnouncement of the draft equity incentive plan, effective conditions: 2024-2026 EOE not less than 22% 24% 26%, total profit compared with 2022 compound annual growth rate of not less than 241%/24.3%/24.5%, and all of them are required to be no less than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking company. It shows the company's confidence that the oil transportation industry will continue to rise in the next few years.
Guotai Junan said that in 2023, the capacity utilization rate of the oil transportation market has increased significantly, and the rise and volatility of the freight rate center have increased. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023-25 is expected to be 46 72.86 billion yuan.
Risk warning: the global economic downturn, production cuts in major oil-producing countries, Sino-US relations and geopolitical risks The implementation of environmental protection policies is less than expected.
This column is only a review of the value group, and any views and ** mentioned are examples only, and are not trading advice. **There are risks and investment should be cautious.