U.S. non-farm payrolls in November were seasonally adjusted to 1990,000 people, 180,000 expected, 150,000 previously. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 37%, both expected and previous values are 39%。The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of new nonfarm payrolls in September fell from 2970,000 downwards to 2620,000 people;The number of new non-farm payrolls remained unchanged at 150,000 in October. After the revision, the number of new jobs added in September and October combined was 350,000 people.
The decline in the unemployment rate is due to the aforementioned increase in employment, which increased by 74 in November70,000 people, up to 16.2 billion people, and an increase in the labor force participation rate, the U.S. employment participation rate in November was 628%, the expected and previous values are both 627%。The average hourly wage in the United States in November was 4% y/y, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 41%。The average hourly wage in the United States in November was 04% and 0 expected3%, the previous value was 02%。Analyst Katia Dmitrieva said the labor force participation rate and average weekly hours have also risen, which is often a sign of stronger demand.
While this year's economic growth has shattered widespread expectations of a recession, most economists expect the economy to slow sharply in the fourth quarter and see modest growth in 2024. There are already signs of a weakening economy this week, but the US non-farm payrolls show little sign of slowing down in November, with employment growing even faster than expected, while the unemployment rate has fallen. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November reversed expectations for a cooling job market this week.
A number of job market reports released earlier this week suggest that the labor market is cooling: job openings fell to 8.73 million in October, the lowest level since March 2021 and well below expectations of 9.3 million"Small non-farm" The ADP employment report for November showed that employment fell short of expectations for four consecutive months and wage growth hit the lowest level in more than three yearsThe number of layoffs at challenger companies in the U.S. in November was 45.51 million people, an increase of 24% month-on-month;Initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 220,000 in the week to December 2.
Contrary to expectations of a slowdown in the job market, the US 11 non-farm payrolls report showed broad strength in the US labor market, which highlighted the Fed's intention to keep interest rates high for longer, weighing on market rate cut expectations.
Following the release of the data, Fed swap contracts showed that bets on a Fed rate cut in 2024 have declined. The market pushed back the consensus expectation that the Fed will start cutting interest rates as early as March next year until May. Currently, the market is pricing in a 48% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in May next year2%。
Ali Jaffery, capital markets economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said today's report is sure to draw some attention from the FOMC and serve as a reminder that the labor market remains tight. Although inflation persistence is no longer a challenge, the Fed will continue to be patient. This means that financial markets' expectations that the Fed could pivot to rate cuts as early as the first quarter of 2024 may be premature.
After the release of the data, US Treasury yields rose, and the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose to respectively. 274%。The U.S. dollar index DXY** rose nearly 50 points and is now trading at 10428。Spot *** fell by $7 and is now at 2019$59 oz. The three major stock indexes extended their decline, and the Nasdaq fell 078%, and the S&P 500** fell 044%, the Dow fell 035%。
This article is from: Zhitong Finance and Economics.