Japan in 1941 was at a difficult time. Since Japan launched a war of aggression against China in 1937, Japan has suffered a huge consumption of resources and its domestic economy has gradually collapsed. This has left Japan's leadership in a very difficult question: should it continue its expansionist policy?This issue has sparked a heated debate among the Japanese ruling class. On the one hand, there are those who believe that continued expansion is the only way forward for Japan. They believed that the shortage of resources faced by Japan could only be solved through further conquest. On the other hand, there are also those who believe that Japan has fallen into a quagmire from which it cannot extricate itself. Continued expansion will only put Japan in further trouble.
This controversy exists not only at the political level, but even within the military, there are similar divisions. For example, although some high-ranking members of the Japanese Army supported a tough stance against the United States, they knew deep down that Japan would almost certainly lose if there was a war with the United States.
This ambivalent mentality makes Japan's decision-making process fraught with complexity and uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Japan's policymakers, including the military, civilians, diplomats, and even the emperor himself, are caught in a dilemma. They are not just faced with a simple matter of choice, but a major decision that has to do with the future of the country, the destiny of the nation, and even the life and death of the individual.
A key factor in this decision-making process was the failure of Japan's political system. At that time, the Japanese political system had seriously lost its effectiveness. In this dysfunctional system, rational voices are often marginalized, while extreme and emotional voices dominate.
This dysfunctional political system ultimately led to the catastrophe of the entire country. Although there was no shortage of rational voices in Japan at the time, for example, Isoroku Yamamoto in the navy was a staunch anti-war person. However, these voices of reason often fail to function in the political system. Reinforced by militaristic ideology, any anti-war voice is seen as cowardly or even disloyal.
Another issue that cannot be ignored is that there is a serious problem of information occlusion in Japan's decision-making process. In Japan at that time, access to information was very limited, and only a few high-level decision-makers could understand the real war situation and the external situation. These decision-makers, in turn, are often confined to a narrow frame of thinking that prevents them from comprehensively and objectively assessing the prospects and consequences of war.
For example, before declaring war on the United States, Japan** did not publicly communicate the status of negotiations with the United States to its people. As a result, the Japanese public knew very little about the real situation of the war, and some were even shocked by the magnitude and duration of the war after the war was declared.
This information occlusion not only leads to a misassessment of the war, but also to a lack of ability for decision-makers to understand the big picture when making decisions. As a result, they were unable to correctly judge the current situation and future development trends in Japan, which in turn led to wrong decisions.
Finally, another dilemma facing Japan is that they have embarked on a path from which there is no turning back. Since beginning its aggression against China, Japan has established a large sphere of influence in Asia, including most of Chinese mainland and some important parts of Southeast Asia.
This makes it impossible for even policymakers who want to abandon expansionary policies to turn back. They need to deal not only with a long-term war with China, but also with the already established spheres of influence and broad opposition to foreign aggression. Abandoning expansionary policies would mean facing serious civil unrest and political crises.
To sum up, Japan was faced with an extremely difficult choice in 1941. Their political system is dysfunctional, there are disagreements and contradictions among decision-makers, information blockage leads to wrong decisions, and Japan has embarked on a path of no return. All this led them into a lost choice, which ultimately led to Japan's defeat in the war and great losses to the country.