On December 28, the reference news network "Russian Daily" published an article entitled "Political scientist Alexander Lal made an annual summary and ** after the "live connection" in Russia", the author is Yevgeny Shestakov. The following is an excerpt from the full text:
Russia's ** Putin recently held the first "live connection" since the special military operation in Ukraine. Alexander Lal, President of the Eurasian Association (Berlin), shared his impressions of the Russian leader's Q&A with Rosday Gazeta and his thoughts on 2024.
On December 14, Russia's Vladimir Putin (center) speaks at the "Annual Stocktake" event in the capital Moscow. This year's "annual stocktake" includes the annual "Live with Putin" TV program. (Photo by Bai Xueqi).
Russian-European relations are difficult to repair.
Yevgeny Shestakov asked: You watched Putin's "live connection". What conclusions did you draw after the show?
Alexander Lal answered: It is now clear that Ukraine has failed, and the Russian army has a clear advantage on the battlefield. In the ** elections in three months' time, Putin will be able to show the results to voters. Westerners who follow the "live connection" closely will not fail to notice that the Kremlin master does not use an aggressive tone towards the West. Russia has long been complaining and accusing about the so-called "partner countries", and they know it. The time for a cautious "thaw" will come in 2024. This is provided, of course, that Western military equipment is withdrawn (or destroyed) from Ukraine and that Ukrainian law guarantees the rights of Russian-speaking residents of the territory.
Q: At his annual press conference, Putin said that Europe is making decisions that are detrimental to itself and has lost its sovereignty, and that the West and Russia do not have the basic conditions to restore relations at present. Is it possible for the European elite to wake up and stop going along with the United States?Or is it that without a directive from Washington, do not expect the EU to take independent action against Russia?
A: Europe and Russia actually need each other to the same extent. Peter the Great opened the window to Europe 300 years ago, making Russia one of the major powers on the continent. Until the end of the 20th century, Europe understood that Russia was an integral part of the European family. But today's European elites are conditioned and imprisoned by transatlantic ideas. The United States wants to suppress Russia in Europe. The European elite will not leave Washington alone for a separate dialogue with Moscow, unless the United States loses interest in the geopolitics of old Europe. This only happens when the United States sees the need to shift its focus to Asia. Only then can we see new hope for Russia and Europe to repair relations.
The impact of elections in many countries is far-reaching.
Q: Some experts have pointed out that 2024 is epoch-making. Is this statement correct, or is it an "exaggeration"?
A: I also tend to think that next year will be a fateful year. Elections will be held in 70 countries. About two-thirds of the planet's population will vote for the new or keep the old, including the United States. The Democratic Party, led by Biden, may lose, and Trump will come to power again, dramatically changing the United States. America's role as a global power may also change.
Russia will continue to maintain a fortress of stability. Today, the population supports Putin. But this does not mean that Russia can rest up, and it must continue to build relations with its neighbor China and consolidate its position in the new world order.
In 2024, elections will be held in three former East German regions, and right-wing parties, such as the AfD, will obviously receive a large number of votes, which will clearly change the German political landscape. The UK will apparently also be replaced**. It is not excluded that there will also be a change of power in Ukraine.
Q: In the past year, there has been a lot of talk about the collapse of the old world order, and there are already clear signs of this – the expulsion of France from its former colonies in Africa, the expansion of the BRICS and its new connotation, and the refusal of many countries to comply with Western sanctions against Russia.
A: The big question is what the confrontation between the EU and Russia will look like in the future. The thought of us being able to fall back into the Cold War is terrifying. I can't imagine that we will return to the time when almost a third of the budgets of countries were spent on military needs.
The world order will change in Asia. Thirty years ago, when the Soviet system collapsed, the upheaval spread to Europe, but not to the United States, and only to a lesser extent to Asia. But now Asia is overtaking Europe in this regard, and it is not clear whether the evolution will take place peacefully or violently.
Russia is advancing the process of establishing a new world order through its military operation in Ukraine. In fact, it is pushing for a new system that, in my opinion, will be an era of co-dominance between the United States and China. No one knows what the outcome will be. Today, humanity is looking for the answer to the main question - how to stabilize the global situation. We see that there are so many challenges that solutions have not yet been found. Europe is plagued by mass immigration, inability to solve its debt problem, and deindustrialization. In fact, isolation from Europe can also adversely affect Russia. It is difficult for me to imagine how Europe and Russia will live separately under the new Iron Curtain in the future.
It is very rare that such a process occurred at the same historical moment. The political power of most major powers is changing – not a superficial change in the period of economic stability and national security, when global institutions, including the United Nations Security Council, were still functioning. Now we see the threat of the entire world system being shaken – and I haven't mentioned it yet. However, a change in an inherently unstable system could indeed lead to a major change in world politics.
Migration has changed Europe.
Q: The term "Global South" has become a common phrase in the last year, and its interests are increasingly at odds with those of the G7 and the collective West. Has the influence of the "Global South" reached its ceiling, or is it just getting started?
A: It seems to me that the "Global South" that people often talk about is more like what the future calls for another world. It includes the Arab States and Africa, which is becoming the "roots" of the "Global South" – where the population is doubling and will triple in 50 years. This is where the challenges facing humanity arise, and it is hard to even imagine how the world will respond. Africa's population has skyrocketed, and the planet's population will soon reach 10 billion. How to feed them is the main challenge.
I doubt that the world being formed will be fair to these regions. There are still a large number of conflicts in the Central African region. In the Middle East, the entire region is on the brink of a major war. The influence of the United States there disappears. The country there has gained full autonomy and is going its own way. We feel that there is a huge problem in these countries, and the mass migration from there cannot be stopped. This migration is not the migration of a small number of people and may lead to changes in the European population, including changes in mentality, structure, etc. This will not happen in 50 to 80 years, as in the previous **, but in 20 years.
Q: According to Bloomberg, there are 183 regional and local conflicts taking place in the world today, and the number is growing. Will the Western world accept the changes that are coming?
A: The current instability is first and foremost related to the fact that all countries are fighting for their own power. No one is going to give up power and influence. Today, the world is changing. There is no Paris Charter, no Yalta Agreement, no other world order. The United Nations is falling apart. We need to create something new. A multipolar world order is being born. But the West, especially Europe, is terrified of its appearance. I fear that the West expects to use force to thwart or change this new order that is in the making.
International experts are right that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a question of Ukraine, but of the future world order, which is opposed by forces that do not want to see it happen. (Compiled by Hu Liwen).