Will Vision Pro recreate the "iPhone moment"?
Who can seize the opportunity and ride the wind?
Text |Green Cliff White Deer.
(VRPINEA, December 22, 2023).Continuing from the above, Apple's Vision Pro will bring new content entrepreneurship opportunities. Please note!This is a declarative sentence, not an interrogative sentence.
After the official release of Apple's Vision Pro, it is bound to pull out enough incremental space for the originally niche XR market. Empty words, direct data: App Store developers created 1$1 trillion in bill revenue and sales.
App Store FY2022 data).
For traditional entrepreneurial hardware manufacturers
First of all, although Apple's Vision Pro does not belong to the traditional AR VR headset, there are even overseas bloggers who recently broke the news that Apple emphasized to employees that the use of the word "VR" is prohibited in the Vision Pro sales training. However, neither XR manufacturers nor Apple can deny the fact that Vision Pro will have a huge impact on the original XR market. (Since the overall sales volume of the AR market is still at a low level, the main impact on VR manufacturers is here).
This shock wave has little impact on VR manufacturers that are already single-positioned. On the one hand, the market share of these manufacturers is not high, and the users are loyal fans;On the other hand, it specializes in product positioning in a single field, and does not form a direct competition pattern with Vision Pro. Representatives of such manufacturers, such as Pimax and Varjo, focus on high-end positioning and high-definition visual effects.
Pimax Crystal).
But for those VR manufacturers who mainly focus on the low-end mass consumer market, after the Apple Vision Pro giant ship breaks the waves and flies away, the things in front of them are very clear: the ship is small and the wind is not enough, and it is difficult for the ship to turn around.
Those "small" manufacturers, if they are willing to take Apple's product logic as a benchmark, then refer to the early domestic smartphone manufacturers to make a fortune and learn from it;If you are not willing to "make a version" of Vision Pro, then retreat bravely and stop losses in time. As for those "big" manufacturers, "stubbornness" does not matter, even if they want to change, their road to innovation and change is also a long way to go.
Ships and Wind and Waves").
Especially Meta, it is difficult to return, and the self-developed technology at hand is also difficult to explain. Meta's strength is the algorithm, gesture eye tracking, environmental perception, etc., and its hardware capabilities, such as the Quest series headset, rely more on the solution of China's ** chain. How can such a fragmented software and hardware strength compete with Apple, an "old hooligan", which has never had a major defeat in the field of consumer-grade hardware.
Not to mention that Meta still has a "gold-swallowing beast" - Reality Labs, whether it can make up its mind to "change", or whether it has the confidence to harden steel apples, it is difficult to choose. Meta Reality Labs Quarterly 2023 Financial Report: Q3 Quarterly Revenue 2$100 million, the lowest in the division's history since the release of revenue statistics in Q4 2020;Q3 quarterly loss of 37$4.2 billion, Q2 was 37$3.9 billion, Q1 was 39$9.2 billion, with a total loss of 114 in the first three quarters$7.3 billion.
meta vs apple）
Back then, Meta broke through 10 million sales with the Quest 2, and the scenery was unlimited for a while. Now, in the face of the situation that Vision Pro is the first to win the first and the second-generation affordable Vision** is harvested, can Quest 3 keep the existing market share of the Meta headset, if not, then all the efforts of the past will make a wedding dress for Apple.
Zuckerberg uses Quest 3).
For small and medium-sized development teams
General purpose applications
For small and medium-sized XR development teams, it is a wiser choice to apply for the Developer Lab as soon as possible and participate in the development of the Vision Pro content ecosystem. Based on the characteristics of Vision Pro's interactive logic and space, it is not beautiful to create an adaptable APP and be a "hero from the dragon".
The magnitude of the existing XR market is difficult to support the emergence of a second Beat Saber (Rhythm Lightsaber);In other words, under the existing platform structure, no matter how small and medium-sized development teams market, the possibility of selling "Rhythm Lightsaber" is very small.
beat saber》）
However, with the efforts of Vision Pro and subsequent generations of products, it can exceed the scale of tens of millions of sales. Then, even if it is a vision pro application that is dozens or even a hundred people away, the market value is greater than that of "Rhythm Lightsaber".
Previously, Meta executives announced at the Meta Connect 2023 conference that the Quest Store has generated more than $2 billion in revenue;The annual revenue generated by the App Store mentioned above is 1$1 trillion. Of course, this direct comparison is very unscientific, but to a certain extent, it can also give a glimpse of the "upper limit" of the existing platform and the scale that the Apple platform represented by Vision Pro may have.
Meta Connect 2023).
If the Vision Pro goes on sale in January next year, it will develop as expected (iOS era). In 2024, there will be new applications of logic that can verify the interactive characteristics of the Vision ProIn 2025-2026, the first batch of content products to complete rapid growth will appear;After 2026, there will be 5 10 start-up content companies that will stand out and give birth to new unicorns.
You must know that the essence of Apple's ecosystem is to use good enough hardware to allow more developers to make enough money in Apple's closed ecosystem. This is the real advantage of Apple's Vision Pro, based on Apple's brand appeal, the basic user base does not have to worry. As long as the content development team can make money and have a predictable "bright future", is there any need to worry about good content?With ** pieces and good content, are you still afraid that there will be no users?
Cook presents App Store at WWDC 2022).
Productivity tools
Apple's Vision Pro productivity app was highly anticipated long before its release. After all, compared to the XR chip that was previously modified with a mobile phone chip, Apple directly stuffed a computer (M2 chip) into the Vision Pro.
Based on the hardware performance of Vision Pro, it may not be far away to truly realize the availability of virtual office. Custom workspaces (infinite canvases), remote collaboration, product displays, and AI assistants all see hope in Vision Pro. $3,499 for a headset may be too expensive, but buying a pen computer doesn't feel more acceptable.
In addition, the above are all talking about small and medium-sized development teams, but what about traditional content manufacturers?For example, EA, Ubisoft, Tencent, NetEase, V and the like, if you don't make a move, it will be a phenomenal product. However, big manufacturers have big businesses, and they will not end up easily if they don't wait for the situation to be clear.
Vision Pro promotional image).
For accessories ** merchants
If Vision Pro can reproduce what the iPhone did to the mobile phone circle in the XR field, then, in addition to hardware development and content ecology, accessories will also be a big cake. Of course, this will have to wait until the late stage. Just imagine, once Apple opens up the interface and signal port of related devices to accessory manufacturers, all kinds of DIY accessories are bound to emerge in endlessly.
As far as the external battery module of Vision Pro is currently criticized, I believe that the best accessories manufacturers will be happy to provide "power banks". As early as the beginning of July after the release of Vision Pro, the Dubai luxury brand C**IAR announced that it would launch a customized version of Vision Pro, limited to 24 units worldwide and priced at $40,000.
C**IAR Customized Vision Pro).
Conclusion
If there's one piece of advice for XR developers, it's simple: stop any project, as long as it's not outsourced, and start working on Vision Pro at full capacity. Anyway, it's half-dead now, so it's better to gamble, and if it happens, it's a pioneer in embracing a beautiful new era.
Whether you're a mobile, PC, or XR developer, hurry up and jump into the arms of the Vision Pro!The words are divided into two ends, developers can directly "hug their thighs", and hardware manufacturers can't always take their own acres and threes of land to Apple. So, how should the XR camp catch up with the Vision Pro?This is the focus of the analysis of the next Vision Pro special report, ladies and gentlemen, and listen to the next time!
This article is an original manuscript of VRPINEA, **Please contact: brand@vrpineacom
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