Is the real estate adjustment in place? This is something that many people are paying attention to, and for pessimists, they must think that the real estate crash is hopeless, but the real estate industry is always a pillar industry.
The two recent land auction information are very noteworthy, and the two pieces of land in Chengdu and Changsha are sold at a premium, which is actually an obvious market signal.
On December 11, the Liulichang plot in the South Second Ring Road of Chengdu was won by Renhe Real Estate, and the floor price was 1640,000, and finally 2350,000 transactions, a premium of 43%.
On December 12, at the Changsha land auction, the plot of Xiangya Road in the center of the city was sold by China Construction Xinhe Real Estate at a total price of 275.8 billion yuan was won, with a premium rate of 36%, and the floor price was 14,968 yuan per square meter, setting a new high in Changsha's land price.
Real estate must be saved
A friend asked me, will real estate fall, will it save real estate? I say this question depends on how you understand it, if you are talking about the real estate industry, then it must be saved! If you are talking about real estate companies, it is impossible to save them all, those who should fall will fall, and those who can stay will stay.
Why? This is related to our economic growth structure, the igniter of China's economic rise and rapid growth in the past 20 years is land finance and land financing, whether it is the leading infrastructure investment, or the fixed asset investment of enterprises, if you go back to the source of funds, you will find that most of them are inseparable from land. For example, the local government invests in the construction of the subway, and the money comes from the city, and many cities allocate some land along the subway to the subway company, and the subway then takes the land to mortgage financing, and then sells the land to repay the money while repairing the subway.
In the process of land finance to promote China's economic development, real estate enterprises are actually the role of setter porters, real estate companies take the funds from financial institutions to buy land from the first hand, and invest the money in infrastructure construction after receiving the land payment.
Therefore, China's economic growth is tied to real estate, in contrast, the U.S. economy is bound to the capital market, China's current GDP is about 20 trillion US dollars, the overall market value is 10 trillion US dollars, and the United States now has a GDP of 28 trillion US dollars, the overall market value of 50 trillion US dollars.
Think about the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, when the U.S., as a free-market economy, abandoned the idea of non-intervention in liberal economics and decisively came to the rescue.
Once the real estate industry completely collapses, it means that China's economy will also collapse, and we cannot afford this consequence.
The time to enter the market to buy a house
When is it better to buy a house in 2024, this is a question that many people are paying attention to, and the time to buy a house. Even if you just need to get married or can't live at home and have improvement needs, you should choose a good time to buy a house from an investment perspective.
Compared with the investment risk, real estate investment is still the first choice for family asset allocation, but if you don't choose the time to buy a house, you will suffer the same losses as **.
How should we judge the time to buy a house in 2024? At present, many research institutions have a consensus on the judgment of the current market situation, that is, the adjustment of the real estate industry has basically bottomed out.
In 2024, no one knows whether it will continue to lie flat in the shape of L or there will be a V-shaped reversal, but we can analyze and judge the appropriate time point to buy a house by paying attention to the changes in the land market and analyzing and judging the appropriate time point for buying a house from the investment and land acquisition behavior of real estate enterprises.
The so-called Chunjiang plumbing duck prophet, the recovery after each round of adjustment in the past, the most obvious market feedback signal is the action of real estate companies to invest in land.
Generally speaking, increasing investment inventory indicates that they are optimistic about the market outlook, and we can pay attention to the changes in indicators in two aspects:
The first is the change in the ratio of the amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises to the amount of sales, which we call the ratio of land acquisition to sales. In 2022, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies in sales is only 018, which is equivalent to selling 10 billion, and only taking out 1.8 billion to get land in the same period, and the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 sales from January to November 2023 is 019,**The trend has basically stopped, and it is very likely that the inflection point of the recovery will be confirmed in 2024.
The second is the relationship between the growth rate of the amount of investment in real estate enterprises and the growth rate of the sales amount, if the two indicators are positive, it means that the market is in a boom period, and if the two indicators are negative, it means that the market is in a downturn. From January to November 2023, the amount of land acquired by the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 13% year-on-year, while the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 14% year-on-year in the same period4%, so the market is still in a downturn.
However, in many cases, central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises will go to the bottom to get land for special reasons, which has caused the data interference of normal real estate investment and land acquisition behavior, and we also need to pay attention to the changes in the following three indicators.
The first is the change in the number of private enterprises in the top 100 real estate enterprises, if the number of private real estate enterprises increases, it shows that rational real estate companies are actively entering the market, reflecting that they are optimistic about the market outlook.
The second is the change in the proportion of the number of land-grabbing enterprises in the top 100 real estate companies, if the proportion of non-land-taking enterprises in the top 100 real estate companies in sales increases, it means that they are still very worried about the future capital security of enterprises. In 2022, nearly forty percent of the top 100 real estate companies in sales did not take land, and from January to November 2023, nearly half of the top 100 real estate companies in sales did not take land, indicating that real estate companies are still worried about the safety of funds and are a little pessimistic about the market prospects.
The third is the change in the proportion of land auctions in key cities at a premium price, if all urban land auctions are no longer all transactions at the reserve price, and the proportion of land plots sold at a premium increases, indicating that the inflection point of market recovery has appeared at this time.
Judging from the current land transaction data research reports in many cities, the time to buy a house in 2024 has arrived. Of course, the specific real estate house to buy still depends on each person to choose a house according to their own needs.