Germany was the first country in Europe to develop institutionalized technology, and since then, European countries have been carrying out technology** activities. In 2019, Germany launched the third round of technology**, focusing on technological and social development in the 30s of the 21st century, judging the changes in German social values, new issues and trends in the future, and evaluating issues related to education and research. The analysis of the organizational and implementation characteristics, work content and research methods of the third round of technology in Germany can provide reference for China's technology work. China's technology should be strengthened in terms of "big view", "big system", methods and application of achievements.
In today's world, technological innovation is advancing by leaps and bounds, digitalization is accelerating, and people's lifestyles, ways of working, and social structures are changing rapidly. Scientifically, the future social needs and technological trends, and the selection of key core future technologies, have become the key to seeking new advantages in national competition and cultivating new social and economic momentum. As early as the 17th century, there were researchers who analyzed the size of the future population of England and London for the first time through the ** method, and then after years of development, the United States gradually developed the ** research on future technology, and the emergence of "technology**" and was widely used in the development of US Air Force and Navy science and technology plans in the 40s of the 20th century. In 1970, Japan carried out technology based on the Delphi survey, and in the early 90s of the 20th century, the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy issued the "National Key Technology Report", and countries began to organize national technology practices, and gradually integrated into the formation process of national science and technology innovation policy. Chinese scholars have followed up and studied the development of foreign technology, mainly in Japan and South Korea. Jian Nanhong compared the key technology plans of the United States, Japan, and EU countries in the early period, and Tan Kaiming and others studied the fourth national technology method of South Korea. Since the 80s of the 20th century, Germany has carried out its first technical research since the 80s of the 20th century, and in 1993, Germany followed Japan's lead in carrying out the first technical activities, and then gradually formed its own independent party system. Zhao Changgen focused on the Delphi method used in the fourth technology of the German twentieth century, and Peng Fanjia et al. took German nanotechnology as an example to study the German technology method. After the 21st century, Cuhls Kerstin, et al. of the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation, conducted research on the second round of German technology methodology. In contrast, the third round of German technology** was less followed by studies.
Since 2019, the third round of technology** in Germany has focused on the technological and social development of the 30s of the 21st century, using horizon scanning and other methods to make judgments on the changes in German social values, new issues and trends in the future, and evaluation of education and research-related topics. In the process of the third round of technical implementation in Germany, innovative explorations have been made in terms of work system and methods, and its latest concepts and practices have good inspiration and reference significance for China's technical work.
1 The basic situation of the third round of technology in Germany
Germany carried out two rounds of technology in 2007-2009 and 2012-2014. The main goal of the first round of technology is to identify key technology areas that will be prioritized for future development, and the second round of technology is mainly focused on social challenges and scientific and technological development trends before 2030, and 9 "innovation sprouts" in 2030 are identified. From 2019 to 2023, the third round of technology** in Germany mainly looks forward to the development trend of German social values, society and technology after 2030, and proposes key development areas of education and research. Compared with the first two rounds of technology**, the third round of technology** in Germany focuses more on a broad field of social needs research, in-depth public communication and interaction, and a systematic methodology.
1.1. Organizational implementation framework
The third round of technology in Germany is being implemented by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) with the goal of looking ahead to the technological and social development of Germany beyond 2030. The project was officially launched in September 2019 and is expected to end in 2023, with a total budget of €6.5 million**. Compared with the first two rounds of technology in Germany since the 21st century, the organization and implementation of the third round of technology reflects two major characteristics: first, it has further improved the systematic organizational work mechanism, and paid attention to the role of enterprise think tanks while continuing to play the strength of experts in the field; The second is to realize the offline face-to-face interaction between technology and the public through the operation of the exhibition hall.
The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, relying on social think tanks and strategic experts in various fields, has set up the "Future Office" and the "Future Group" to jointly promote the concrete implementation of the third round of technical work, as shown in Figure 1. The "Office for the Future" is a two-think tank that includes Prognos AG and Z-Punkt Management Consulting, which identify new topics and trends for the future development of German society and conduct research on German social values. The "Future Group" is composed of 17 strategic experts from various subject areas and is responsible for evaluating and selecting key topics for education and research and advising the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Cornelia Daheim, a technologist and entrepreneur, co-chairs the "Future Group" with physicist, philosopher, and technology evaluation expert Professor Armin Grunwald.
The third round of technology in Germany** places special emphasis on public participation and interaction with society. The German Confederation** has established the "Futurium" exhibition hall to provide the public with an interactive physical place to engage in dialogue with the public about the future. The "House of the Future" exhibition hall opened in September 2019 and is operated by Futurium GmbH. The company is financed by shareholder donations and institutional funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, in which the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research holds 86 percent of the company's shares.
1.2 Main work
The third round of German technology** attempts to look forward to German society after 2030, such as how German society will develop in the future under the background of different values, what changes will occur in German society under the megatrends of digitalization and globalization, and what aspects will be focused on in the future in education and research. The third round of technology** in Germany focuses on social values, new issues and trends, education and research-related issues.
The first is to study the changes in the values of German society, which will be implemented by the "Office for the Future". The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research believes that the prevailing values are instructive for the development of society, and it is therefore necessary to study how German values will change in the future. Focusing on possible social scenarios and associated value models, the study examines the future of values for the German people through social surveys and scenario analysis.
The second is to find new issues and trends in the future, and the "Office of the Future" is responsible for implementation. Technological innovation will follow a certain life cycle, and in the embryonic stage of technology, the volume and growth rate of ** or patent publications are relatively low; As innovation moves into applied research in its life cycle, both the number and growth rate of publications continue to grow; As the life cycle evolves, technology gradually enters the public domain, such as newspapers, commerce, and the general public**. Therefore, new topics and trends in the future can be discovered through horizon scanning and expert survey methods, combined with the megatrends of global change. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research has outlined a list of 112 topics for the future technological and social development of Germany, including political, economic, socio-cultural, technological and eco-geographical aspects.
The third is the evaluation of education and research-related issues, which will be implemented by the "Future Group". Combined with the functions and concerns of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the "Future Group" further selects and condenses on the basis of new topics and trends on the future, and forms key future topics, mainly related to the future economic form, the establishment of trust mechanisms in the digital economy, and the integration of technology and biology.
2 Germany's approach and progress in finding new issues and trends for the future
German technologists believe that most of the social and technological developments in recent years are emerging phenomena that exist in the interaction between the various parts of the social system, such as the interaction between technological push and demand pull. The third round of technology** in Germany mainly uses the horizon scanning method, system analysis method and trend analysis method to identify new topics and trends that represent future development through large-scale topic scanning and interdisciplinary team research and analysis.
2.1. Identify new issues and trends based on horizon scanningThe Office of the Future uses the horizon scanning method to gather a wealth of topics related to the third round of technology**. Horizon scanning is mainly implemented from three aspects. First, at the basic level, the use of web crawlers, public surveys and other methods to scan from the political, economic, socio-cultural, technological, eco-geographical and legal factors; The second is the technical level, mainly using web crawlers and other methods to search for the development of new technologies in a targeted manner; The third is the social level, which mainly uses big data literature analysis and other methods to scan social topics such as social and cultural development. Horizon Scan covers a wide range of topics, including forward-looking research, and newsletters, technology research, technology roadmaps, global scenarios, science fiction literature, international conferences, bestseller lists, social, podcasts and technology, entertainment, design (TED) talks, and projects already underway by Future Office partners. The large-scale topic scanning ensures the diversity and representativeness of the topics, and provides a sufficient information basis and selection basis for finding new topics and trends.
2.2 Criteria for identifying new issues and trendsThe Office of the Future organizes an interdisciplinary expert workshop to conduct a multi-stage evaluation based on the topic of horizon scanning, and finalize the selection of a list of topics that describe the future society. The topics and trends selected should take into account factors such as different subject areas, different channels, frequency of occurrence, and social relevance. Some issues are known to the public and visible or developing in daily life, some issues have entered the public eye but have not yet received due attention, and some issues are known by professionals and may enter the public eye, and all selected topics must have a high degree of social relevance. As a result, the "Office of the Future" categorizes the selected topics according to their degree of public attention, stage of development, and social relevance.
2.3. Look for progress on new issues and trendsIn July 2020, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research published the first list of topics in the third round of technology**, with a total of 50 topics for insight into the possible future of German society. After the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research carried out a second round of horizon scanning, according to the situation at the time, and published the second and third lists of topics, containing 62 new topics, for a total of 112 topics published in three times. The list of issues is presented in a uniform structure. The structure table summarizes the current development of the topic, expounds the degree of social consensus of the topic, its potential future development trend and application scenarios, and puts forward its expected impact on the future society in the development process.
3 The description of the future society of the third round of German technology**
The third round of technology in Germany** describes the future society of Germany beyond 2030 with the publication of 112 topics. The topics cover science and technology, economy, politics, ecology and social culture, and are divided into four categories according to the characteristics of the topics: conflict, trend, emerging and weak signal, showing a new perspective on the future.
3.1 Conflict issues
In the third round of technology** in Germany, 15 conflict topics were set up out of 112 topics to demonstrate the multiple impacts that the emergence of such new topics may have on society in the future. Conflict issues involve contradictory or antagonistic topics, which can provide a multi-faceted analytical perspective on future development, and may also represent a paradigm shift in society. Looking ahead to German society beyond 2030, the invention and application of technology will not only improve people's living standards, but also bring many new problems. In the economic field, the development of new technologies will increase the demand for key raw materials, leading to a conflict between supply and demand of key raw materials;New technologies promote the formation of a digital society and bring about new social competition;New technologies have extended human lifespans, requiring more resources and putting pressure on social resources. In the political sphere, the use of human augmentation technology, while bringing convenience to life, may also contribute to societyThe development of the Internet not only connects the whole world, but also shows the trend of regional networks. In the ecological field, along with the extinction of some species, the ecological balance is affected. In the socio-cultural sphere, the emergence of new things is testing society's tolerance for ambiguity, and animal-human genome editing has an impact on human ethics. 3.2 Trending topics
Germany's third round of technology** sorted out 41 trend topics, accounting for 366%。Trending topics are topics that have emerged and will be sustainable. It is not cyclical, empirically available, and has a history of at least 10 years.
Looking ahead to German society beyond 2030, there are many trending topics in the field of science and technology. For example, e-sports will develop rapidly, new gene-based vaccines will appear, digital skills will be an important skill for employment, drones will be widely used, electronic products will be miniaturized, the Internet of Things will begin to be popularized, blockchain technology will be widely used, donor organs will be developed, there will be new breakthroughs in the diagnosis of rare diseases, two-dimensional nanomaterials will be widely used, and the food of the future world will be diversified.
In the German social and economic field after 2030, a cashless society will become possible, and 3D printing will be widely used in the construction industry to build large-scale buildings. In the political sphere, Arctic territorial claims will be in the spotlight, and new approaches to water management will be promoted. In the ecological realm, the extinction of some insects is accelerating, climate change is causing migration problems, extreme weather will become more frequent, heat-tolerant cities will develop, and green IT (the Xi of using computer and network resources efficiently) will become the trend of the future. In the field of social culture, topics such as AI ethics, tired society and lonely society will attract much attention, horticultural cemeteries may become a trend, deepfake technology will bring a crisis of trust, the influence of Chinese culture will be strengthened, and non-linear life patterns may become the mainstream in the future.
3.3 Emerging issues
Germany's third round of technology** sorted out 49 emerging topics, accounting for 438%。Emerging topics are those that are developing, or emerging that may be important for research and education policy in the future. Emerging issues are often latent issues that have the potential to evolve into trending issues in the future.
In German society after 2030, there are many emerging topics in the field of science and technology. Emerging things such as micro-artificial intelligence, analog computers, post-lithium-ion batteries, self-driving cars, high-tech buildings, quantum computers, and nano-3D printers will emerge and be applied to life, digital twin worlds will emerge, and new breakthroughs will be made in microbiome decipherment. In the political sphere, there will be something new such as the new space economy. In the ecological realm, carbon dioxide may be considered a resource. In the socio-cultural field, topics such as population peaks and data trust are involved.
3.4 Weak signal issuesGermany's third round of technology** sorted out 7 weak signal issues to indicate the budding things that are likely to appear. Harry Igor Ansoff, the founder of Strategic Management, defines a weak signal as "an inaccurate early indication of an impending valid event." "Emerging issues" may be inferred from weak signal issues. In German society after 2030, the application of face recognition technology is mainly the issue of weak signals in the field of science and technology. In the political realm, the emergence of a new organizational model, the Climate Club, could be an effective way to combat climate change. In the field of ecology, research on the next epidemic may be needed in the future. In the socio-cultural realm, both intelligent regulation and gender-specific medicine are likely to become emerging topics in the future. The description of new topics and trends in the future of the third round of technology** in Germany shows what is possible, is happening and will continue to develop in the fields of science and technology, economics, politics, ecology and socio-culture. It focuses on trend and emerging issues, taking into account weak signal issues, and discusses conflict issues brought about by development, providing a multi-faceted perspective for thinking about the future and providing ideas for better adapting to the future society.
4 Reflections and Revelations
The third round of technology in Germany is quite distinctive in terms of work objectives, organizational forms and working methods, and also has certain enlightenment and reference significance for China's technical work.
4.1. The technical work should establish a "big view".
The third round of technology in Germany puts technology in the overall situation of social development for overall consideration and system design. German technology** is mainly to provide the public with a description of future technology and social development, including not only looking for technological development trends, but also researching and learning about the changes in future social values and the needs of future social development. For a long time, China's technology work has focused on the investigation and analysis of technological development trends, and paid less attention to changes in social needs. In the future, we should establish a "big view" of technology, pay attention to the interaction and influence between technological trends and social needs, strengthen the vision analysis of the future society in the first work, and combine technology with social development for research.
4.2. The technology should establish a "big system".The third round of technology in Germany** has established a systematic organizational structure with a focus on the participation of all stakeholders. The "Office of the Future" is mainly based on the research of social trends based on corporate think tanks, the "Future Group" includes strategic research experts from 17 fields to select key development areas through seminars and other means, and the "Future House" exhibition hall provides a physical space for public dialogue. China's technology should also strengthen the design of the system, give full play to the role of various social think tanks and experts in various fields, and reach a consensus on future social development and technological development within the scope of more technical institutions and a wider range of experts. At the same time, it can also cooperate with physical exhibition halls such as the China Science and Technology Museum to launch future-oriented technology scenarios and interact and communicate with the wider public.
4.3. The technical method should keep pace with the times
The results of technology foresight are constantly changing, and how to maintain the continuity and iteration of foresight activities is also the future research direction. The German three-wheeled technology** adopts a cyclical methodological framework, which combines a variety of methods such as expert systems thinking, trend analysis, scenario analysis and innovation and technical analysis (ITA) methods based on the Delphi survey method and the horizon scan method. On the basis of optimizing the Delphi survey method, China's technological work should strengthen the application of scenario analysis, vision analysis and other methods, strengthen the role of informatization, intelligence and artificial intelligence in information collection and screening, and also strengthen the exchange and sharing of technical methods and achievements between different institutions, so as to jointly improve the scientific nature of technology.
4.4. Technical achievements serve the public
The achievements of German technology not only support the research and decision-making needs of the department, but also serve the public in various ways. The new topics of the German Technology Selection will be open to the public and will take into account the views of the public. The results will be presented to the public in stages through the image of the public, and will be disseminated to the public through the organization of expert meetings, interviews and seminars. In addition, Germany has invested in the construction of the "House of the Future" exhibition hall to strengthen interaction with the public on the topic of the future**. While strengthening the national science and technology management decision-making service, China's technology should also incorporate social needs into the research objectives, and provide information for the development of all walks of life and various enterprise decision-making through the research and analysis of future social development trends and technological development trends.