As the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, the number of pessimistic people about Ukraine's prospects is growing. Even some Ukrainian scholars have begun to speculate about what the situation would be like if Ukraine lost the war. Allegedly, Ukrainian historian and professor at the Catholic University of Ukraine Khrytsak said on a TV program that if Ukraine fails to resist Russia, according to Putin's "vision", Ukraine may be divided into three independent states, covering the west, the center and the east. The original Ukraine may evolve into three "controlled" states, one under the influence of Russia, one of Poland, and one of the puppet states.
Ukrainian scholars point out that the division of land is closely related to the current situation, and they speculate that Russian-speaking regions may be cut off. In other words, places like Kharkiv, Odessa, Mykolaiv, the four regions determined by the referendum, and Crimea will be included in the Russian "map". Historically, Russian was the main language in these regions, so there is some justification for dividing them by language use. However, this may not be Putin's plan, but just a speculation on the part of the Ukrainians. Because Ukrainian, Russian, and Belarusian are all East Slavic languages, it may be far-fetched to divide them purely on the basis of language. Some argue that perhaps the more convincing way is to divide it from the perspective of strategic value.
In addition to the "division of east and west" mentioned by the outside world, the views of Ukrainian scholars also involve the idea of a central country. They argue that Russia may set up a puppet state in central Ukraine as a buffer between Ukraine and Russia. But some people think that this is extremely unlikely, if not completely impossible. First of all, Russia and Ukraine themselves are evenly matched, so Russia does not need to create a buffer zone, and Russia will not be afraid even if it is directly facing Ukraine. Second, even if Ukraine regains control of the region in the future, Russia will have the ability to resist, so there is no need to carve out a central puppet state.
In the envisage of the possible return of the regions of Western Ukraine, including the Lviv region, the Volyn region, and other regions to Poland, some people believe that this idea of a Russian "gift" to Poland is not justified. Between Russia and Poland, which are in a state of antagonism between countries, their national position will not change because of Russia's "spoils". In addition, Western Ukraine has a large Ukrainian population, and they are unlikely to accept Polish rule, which could lead to instability in the region, which is not good for Russia's long-term stability. In general, Russia needs a stable external environment, not to create more chaos and increase spending on border defense.
In terms of land division, some point out that this is not Putin's ** plan, which is also reflected in history. Although the eastern part of Ukraine tends to be pro-Russian, and the western part is more pro-Russian, this should not be used as a criterion for dividing countries. In the case of the inhabitants of this land before the founding of Ukraine, it is not clear which side they are rooting for. Some people believe that there may be some misunderstandings in the arguments of Ukrainian scholars, and it is more like inciting ** to strengthen the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.