On Friday, A-shares continued to **068%。Today's trend is even more pronounced. The recent ** can be said to have no resistance. The index will be for several months in a row**.
At present, China** is still fluctuating between 2,870 and 3,400 points. Whether A-shares can have a bull market in 2024 depends on the following points.
1. Interest rate cuts stimulate the bull market!Can China's economic data stop falling?Can the manufacturing index turn from contraction to expansion?Can the economy and consumption keep up?The central bank said that it is necessary to increase the implementation of the monetary policy that has been introducedThe simple understanding is that next year may have to increase the dose of money into the market, and the Fed will start cutting interest rates anyway!
Although the four major ETFs and the four major bank stocks protected by the national team on Friday morning, as well as northbound funds, no longer take a strong offensive posture. There was a slight outflow of 400 million yuan into Beijing throughout the day, but a net inflow of nearly 19 billion yuan for three consecutive days. This has not been the case since July. The inflow of capital from the north slowed down, and the outflow of domestic capital was modest. While the index did not continue to be sharply, it was already very strong. The daily limit is as high as 73, and there are more than 300 stocks with an increase of more than 5%, which is stronger than Thursday. The overall money-making effect is still high. If the index continues to be sharply** and is shorted, it is worrying. It's only when weight and theme alternate that it's the perfect combination.
When you get to a place where there is a shortage of water and sit and watch the clouds rise, after a long and painful ordeal, the market finally ushered in the opportunity you were looking forward to. When the opportunity comes, don't hesitate. If there are flowers that can be discounted, fold them. Don't wait until there are no flowers. Empty broken branches. Friday is the last battle of 2023, and some funds choose to reduce their positions in **, but it is still perfect. Looking forward to the wonderful performance on New Year's Day.
2. Can China's real estate market show signs of recovery?
3. Can the Russian-Ukrainian war end smoothly?
4. Can the Palestinian-Israeli war end smoothly?
Will the U.S. adopt monetary and fiscal policy to cut interest rates?
The above points play a decisive role in the operation of A-shares. In particular, the recovery of China's economy itself has played a decisive role in the A** field.
The pit has been dug, and now it's time to wait with peace of mind, don't be afraid of fluctuations, and don't be anxious.
Whether it is this low point or the post-holiday trend, it is basically in the time period repeatedly described before, and there is basically no deviation in the direction of the large and medium cycles. This is the natural law of the cycle of history, and there is no escaping it.
Needless to say, the weekly ** above 2915, the 2915 adjusted last year, and the 2914 last week are also the last washes before the reversal, and they will be gone forever. Cherish the bottom chips, and the future trend will shift from the current ** of most sectors to ** of most sectors, and will become the norm.
The market was relatively firm on Friday. It fluctuated sideways near Thursday's highs. It's already stable very well. The reversal is certain, and then it will be **upwards. Don't think about it dramatically now.
Compared with the trend on July 4, brokerages started from the bottom of the pit, and then slightly**, completing the close combination of the upper zero axis and **.
Now you have to cross 5 and 10 first, and then you can slowly rise up along the 5 and 10 lines. After the 26th, it will gradually go downwards and cross upwards to stand firm, after which the market will break out. This is true for large, medium, and small. There is no escaping the process.