Autumn and Winter Check-in Challenge
Today is December 26th, Christmas has passed, New Year's Day is approaching, "stabilizing the property market" has lasted for two years, and 2024 will continue, so in the new year, what other "tricks" can be used in the property market?
The property market in 2023 can be said to be the most relaxed in recent years, with the optimization of the property market continuing to increase, and the frequency of new policies for the property market is far more frequent than in previous years.
According to Zhuge housing statistics, as of December 18, this year's local relaxation policy has been introduced 751 times, on average, there are more than 60 times per month, this data is as of December 18, even if the last two weeks of 2023 are difficult, the number of new policies in the property market is only half of the average, and there are about 30 times, then the whole year of 2023 will be as high as about 780 times, an increase of nearly 200 times compared with last year, and the frequency of such new policies in the property market is not high. Under the already set tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability", the frequency of new policies in the property market in 2024 may be more relaxed.
From the perspective of property market optimization, this round of "stabilizing the property market" covers more than 330 cities, and as of the end of the year, the policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014. If the first half of the year is still "stable", then the second half of the year already has the meaning of "seeking progress in stability", since "7After the 24 "meeting, the optimization of the property market in various places has increased, especially in September, 140 new policies for the property market have been introduced in a single month, which has not only reached the highest level in 2023, but also reached the peak since last year. In November and December, the first-tier cities have successively "loosened", pushing the "stable property market" in 2023 to the peak again.
Although the policy environment of the property market in 2023 is extraordinarily loose, the downward trend of the property market has not changed, the property market continues to be sluggish, and the property market is expected to be difficult to boost.
On the one hand, the first end of the property market is not enough. In the absence of an improvement in the financing environment, not only the land market continues to be sluggish, but also real estate development investment continues to decline. Reflected in the real estate market, it is the crazy discount of real estate companies, all kinds of fancy activities are staged, and even some real estate projects have been "stopped" because of the excessive decline. The purpose is very simple, that is, to quickly withdraw funds to solve financial difficulties, but from the sales data, the sales and sales area of commercial housing are declining, and the financing difficulties of real estate enterprises have not been improved.
On the one hand, the demand side of the property market is even more sluggish. In addition to real estate risks, the other two factors affecting the recovery of the property market are related to the demand side of the property market, including income expectations and housing price expectations. Although China's economy is resilient enough and the annual GDP target can be achieved, the income expectations of residents are not optimistic for the time being, and perhaps this factor will be boosted as the economy improves. On the other hand, it is expected that housing prices will not be expected until the housing price data is released in November this year, and new and second-hand houses are still in general, and it will not be too good in December.
The property market environment in 2023 is loose enough, but what about the upcoming 2024?Will the property market continue to be loose, and what "tricks" can be used for the property market that is already loose enough?
This round of downturn in the property market did not start in 2023, but began as early as last year, and it was the deep adjustment of the property market in the past two years that formed an "overshoot" to a certain extent, and the property market was "broken" too much, so there was a tone of "standing first and then breaking". It is still necessary to stabilize the property market first, and then slowly "squeeze the bubble", after all, the crux of the accumulated decades is not something that can be solved in a year or two. With the continuous increase in the efforts to "stabilize the property market", the coordinated efforts of policies at both ends of supply and demand, and the increasing number of favorable factors, the real estate market may be expected to gradually stabilize in 2024.
Looking forward to 2024, the property market may make efforts from this aspect, one is the demand side of the property market, including the further optimization of local restrictive policies, especially in the core first- and second-tier cities, the pace of "small steps and fast running" may be accelerated, and the second is the first end of the property market, that is, financial support for real estate, to help real estate enterprises bail out, including promoting the accelerated implementation of the "16 financial articles" and "three arrows", so that more real estate companies can be on the "white list". The third is to build a new real estate model, accelerate the transformation of real estate enterprises by promoting the construction of the "three major projects", abandon the previous "three highs" model, and then achieve stable, healthy and sustainable development of real estate.
To sum up, the property market environment in 2023 is exceptionally loose, but the downward trend of the property market has not changed, and the property market will be more relaxed in the upcoming 2024?