Entering December, the inflection point of the hog market cyclical ** has not yet arrived. On December 5, 2023, according to the analysis of pig price data, the average price of standard pigs slaughtered in the country was **004 yuan, slaughtering enterprises ** rose to 1427 yuan kg, compared with the level of the same period last year, the pig price still fell by nearly 38%!The market resistance to price reduction wants to gradually increase, the price mentality gradually warms up, the domestic pig price changes again, and the market shows a downward trend "collapse" situation, then, the pig price stop falling, will it be a flash in the pan?How much can pig prices rise in December?
The market went from falling to rising
In the northern region, pig prices show a trend of most of the best, and the southern market is still dominated by the weakest marketThe logic of this pig price ** is roughly as follows:
First, the market is still looking forward to the upward mentality, and the pickled meat is still expected to be high!The mentality of the breeding end resisting the loss of slaughter has become stronger, especially in the northern region, due to the previous pig price falling below 14 yuan kg, and the ratio of pig food in many places has fallen below 5:1, the mentality of the breeding end resisting the loss of slaughter has become stronger, and the social pig ** has decreased!
That. Second, the consumer demand in the north has gradually improved, the demand of households has rebounded, and the operating rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises is at a high level57%, a single-day increase of 058 percentage points, the scale of pig collection in the market has increased, the source of pigs in the north has decreased, and the slaughterhouse has increased the price and guaranteed the amount of operation!
That. Third, the pig ** continues to be low adjustment, the market is expected to further expand the official pork storage is strong, the panic slaughter mentality at the breeding end is weakened, and the wait-and-see price confidence increases!
In the peak season**, it is still necessary to cash in on pickles
At present, the market attention is focused on the southern pickling, according to the experience of previous years, in December, the pickling is good to cash, or will stimulate the acceleration of fresh white strips, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has also increased significantly, due to the late Spring Festival holiday, pickling is good for the rear, this month pickling concentrated stage, pork sales or will increase at 20%!
The stage pig price will still be in the cycle of "grinding the bottom"!The "inflection point" of the peak season of pig prices will still be guided by the opening of southern pickling, focusing on recent weather changes and the start of the southern pickling phenomenon!