In November, world rice averaged 2 percent as demand recovered in Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as in African countries. Despite the arrival of Asian crops in the market, exports have been trending since mid-November, partly due to a decrease in Vietnam, which is the highest in the market. In addition, despite India's announcement of some exceptions (mainly for African countries), its export restrictions continue to put pressure on the world**. At the beginning of December, the world was 4% higher than in November.
Global rice** is expected to tighten in 2024 and the world** is expected to be firmer as restrictions in India are likely to be extended, at least until the end of the first half of 2024. In addition, the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to affect Asian crops. Over the past 12 months, the world has **been** nearly 40%, and some analysts don't expect a significant decline until 2025. In fact, despite the recovery of world production in 2023 2024, the balance between production and consumption remains unstable. 。
In November, the Osiriz Infoarroz Index (IPO) *66 points, reaching 3229 points (base 100 = January 2000), compared to 316 in October3 points. At the beginning of December, the IPO index was 335 points.
Produced worldwide
According to FAO's latest estimates, world rice production is expected to increase by 08% to 7904 tonnes (milled 525 metric tonnes) compared to 784 in 20225 metric tons. Pakistan's production will increase by 30%, returning to 2021 levels. This partially offset projected reductions in India and Thailand. In China, production is expected to remain stable in 2023.
After a disappointing 2022 harvest in the United States, production will return to 2021 levels. On the contrary, Mercosur production fell again due to poor weather conditions.
World**
World rice** volume is expected to decline by 53% to 53T compared to 56Mt previously. The decline was mainly due to lower imports from China, but also due to increased production in some deficit regions, mainly in Africa. In addition, India's decision to ban the export of non-basmati rice (a quarter of India's exports and 11% of world exports) tends to exacerbate the decline in the world**.
In fact, India's restrictions have led to the world*** forcing some importing countries to postpone and/or reduce import demand.
However, exports from Thailand and Vietnam have increased significantly since September last year, making up for part of the decline in Indian exports. During the same period, Thailand's monthly exports increased by 15% year-on-year. India's non-basmati rice exports fell by 50 percent. The first ** of 2024 indicates that the world ** volume will fall further to 522 metric tons.
World rice stocks are expected to remain relatively stable at 1965 metric tons compared to 196 in 20229 metric tons. This accounts for 38% of global consumer demand, which is 3% higher than the average for the past five years. In 2023, China's reserves are expected to shrink again to compensate for stagnant production and reduced imports. However, China's inventories remain high, equivalent to 70% of annual domestic consumption and 50% of world stocks. India's inventories are expected to increase by 4%, mainly due to export restrictions.
By 2023, inventories in major exporting countries will reach 575 metric tons, equivalent to 30 per cent of world stocks. In 2024, world inventories are expected to increase again, estimated at 200 metric tons, an increase of 16%。
In India, parboiled rice is again 2% due to new crops. The 20% tax rate on parboiled rice exports will be extended until the end of March 2024. However, due to the **substantial** from Asian competitors, contracts are increasing, mainly for East Africa and the Middle East. In addition, India** is introducing a new export exemption for non-basmati white rice. Beneficiaries include mainly Africans, such as Senegal, Mali and the Gambia, Madagascar and Kenya. These waivers are in addition to those already announced in October in Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire and Cameroon. As a result, more than 1 metric ton of the projected total of 2 metric tons in the **agreement will be allocated to African countries.
However, the exemption will have little impact on the stocks already accumulated in India. The accumulation of public stocks has increased by more than 15 metric tons from the beginning of 2023, which tends to increase the risk of post-harvest damage, some of which may end up in ethanol production. In November, parboiled rice** in India reached $503 tonnes of FOB, compared to $511 previously. At the beginning of December, ** stabilized at $505.
In Thailand, ** is down slightly from October, but has recovered sharply since mid-November, with strong demand, especially from the Philippines, which traditionally imports Vietnamese rice, with strong demand of 6% in just a few days. The Philippines expects to import another 1 metric ton by the end of the year. In addition to this demand, there is also a significant demand in Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, and Malaysia. In the first 11 months of the year, Thailand's exports totalled nearly 8 metric tons, a 15% increase from 2022.
Overall, the export volume could reach 88 tons, compared to 7. in 20227 tons. In November, the average** for 100%b rice in Thailand was $596, compared to $593 in October. At the beginning of December,** it was $640. Thai soft-boiled eggs stabilized at $580 but rose to $620 in early December. Broken Rice A1 Super **4%, from $460** to $476, has remained relatively stable since the end of November.
In Vietnam, exports increased by 4% due to limited and strong external demand, especially from the Philippines. Prices in Vietnam have reached their highest level in a decade. But at the same time, exports continued to grow, reaching 7. in the first 11 months of the year8Mt – up 17% from 2022. The country may export 85 metric tons compared to 72 metric tons. 5% of transactions** were $659, while 25% of transactions in Vietnam were $645, compared to $618 previously**. At the beginning of December, ** stabilized.
In Pakistan, driven by strong demand from the Philippines, rice is ***2%. Pakistan also has the capacity to export to Indonesia and Malaysia. In addition, African countries have shown interest in Pakistani rice to compensate for India's restrictions. However, the exchange rate instability that the country has faced for months is increasing business risks and limiting exporters' business. In November, the PAK 25%** was $499, compared to $491 in October. At the beginning of December, it tended to $530.
In the U.S., exports** remained steady, but began to decline at the end of November with the arrival of a new harvest and are already 37% higher than in 2022. Exports increased again to 245,000 tonnes in November, compared to 215,000 tonnes in October. This represents a 10% increase compared to the same period last year. Mexico is once again the largest customer, accounting for 23% of U.S. exports. Indicative ** for long-grain 2 4 rice held steady at US$753 tonnes in November, but reached US$745 tonnes in early December. On the Chicago Exchange, rice was 6% to $372 a tonne, compared to $352 a tonne in October.
At the beginning of December, ** stabilized at $375. In Mercosur, exports are sharply 4%. The new decline in production in 2022 2023 and uncertainty over the 2023 2024 harvest continue to affect exports** and often limit foreign sales. Brazil's exports are down 7% from the same period last year. Brazilian rice was indicative ** recorded historic**, with 13 percent in November reaching US$464 tonnes, compared to US$411 in October.
In early December, the indicative** breached the $500 ceiling, $80 higher than the record set in May 2008 at the height of the global** crisis. Harvests in sub-Saharan Africa were generally satisfactory and domestically stable. However, import demand remains high, equivalent to 40 per cent of the subregion's consumer demand. In 2024, imports are expected to increase again, especially in West Africa, the continent's main rice-consuming region. Rice-deficit countries in the region rely on Asian exporters**. At the same time, they want to continue to benefit from the export exemptions granted by India.