In the first 11 months of this year, the total premium income of the five major A-share listed insurance companies was 25.2 billion yuan, an increase of 533%。Overall, the premium growth rate of life insurance and property insurance companies improved compared with October. In terms of life insurance, income fluctuated to a certain extent due to factors such as the reduction of predetermined interest rates. However, the monthly premium income of the five listed insurance companies in November eased compared with the negative growth of all in October, and the decline narrowed. In terms of property and casualty insurance, the growth of new car sales supported the rise in monthly premiums, but the non-motor insurance business came under pressure. The monthly premium income of the "old three" in November all achieved positive growth.
The industry expects that the industry's previous product switching overdraft demand has recovered significantly, and the results of the transformation of the first-class team are superimposed, and the good start in 2024 is expected to achieve positive growth. Looking forward to 2024, industry insiders believe that under the influence of factors such as strong demand for residents' savings and lower bank deposit rates, savings insurance is still attractive, the value of new life insurance business is expected to grow, and property insurance is expected to maintain a steady and rising trend.
#The marginal decline in life insurance has narrowed, where is the main direction next year?
According to the latest data disclosed by listed insurance companies,In the first 11 months, five companies, Ping An Life, Chinese Life, Taibao Life Insurance, Xinhua Insurance and PICC Life Insurance, achieved a total of 153 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 494%。
Despite the impact of lower product interest rates, life insurance premiums maintained a positive growth trend during the year. In November, the life insurance business of the five listed insurance companies showed a differentiated pattern of "two rises and three declines". Among them, the premium income of Ping An Life and PICC Life Insurance achieved positive growth, with 250 respectively6.9 billion and 275.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2 percent year-on-year94% and 277%。The premium growth rate of the other three life insurance companies was under pressure, with Chinese Life Insurance Company, Taibao Life Insurance and Xinhua Insurance achieving original premium income of 16.7 billion yuan and 94.4 billion yuan respectively in November4.7 billion yuan, 681.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -118%、-19.01%、-12.2%。
In recent months, life insurance companies have successively launched "good start" flagship products, and increased whole life insurance occupies the "C position". From a comprehensive analysis, at present, life insurance products in the market are still dominated by increased whole life insurance, and the design types cover traditional and dividend-paying types, both of which have their own advantages in terms of product income and stability.
In the face of the reduction of the scheduled interest rate of life insurance in 2023 and the strict implementation of the "integration of newspapers and banks", its policy intention is mainly to reduce the debt cost of insurance companies. In terms of its impact, some industry insiders pointed out that the "integration of newspapers and banks" in the bancassurance channel will affect the sales side in the short term, but it can reduce costs and control the difference in fees in the long run. However, it is expected that the insurance companies that are leading the reform process will have a relatively small impact. "In the long run, it will help reduce the vicious competition in the industry. ”
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the strong demand for residents' capital preservation savings has driven the transaction of life insurance policies, which indicates that more cash that people have can be converted through insurance policies, although the 3% predetermined interest rate is not high, but it is one of the better choices at present. Looking forward to 2024, savings products will continue to be the main direction of residents' financial asset allocation, and the growth of new orders driven by savings insurance on the liability side of life insurance is expected to continue.
#Property and casualty insurance revenue has achieved positive growth, and "strict cost control" is still the focus of supervision in 2024
After the comprehensive reform of auto insurance in China has been implemented, the regulatory penalties have been continuously increased, and with the continuous deepening of the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the handling fee rate of the industry has indeed been effectively controlled, and the results of the reform have continued to appear.
The data for the first 11 months showsThe three listed property and casualty insurance companies are on the upside as a whole. Among them, the "big brother" PICC property insurance achieved a premium income of 472.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 6 percent year-on-year8%;Ping An Property Insurance premium income 27364.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 1 year-on-year4%;CPIC P&C achieved 118% premium growth, premium income 17475.7 billion yuan.
Since the beginning of this year, the management and supervision of auto insurance expenses have become stricter, the market environment has improved, and listed insurance companies have obvious advantages in terms of data, services, brands and channels. On the whole, the overall growth of premium income in the property insurance industry is expected to continue the positive trend in terms of motor insurance premium growth and comprehensive cost ratio of listed property insurance companies with a strong Matthew effect. "The leading insurance companies represented by PICC property insurance have a better quality of business, and the proportion of their own cars with low loss ratios in the auto insurance business is relatively high, the channel rate is controllable, and the profit margin is far higher than that of small and medium-sized insurance companies, and their competitive advantages will become more and more prominent in the second half of the reform. Haitong ** analysis said.
Under the trend of strict supervision and control of auto insurance costs, eight leading insurance companies have signed the "Self-Discipline Convention on Auto Insurance Compliance Management" in November, clarifying the strict control of costs and the non-scale-oriented business policy, which is expected to guide the auto insurance industry to return to a healthy competitive situation, and it is expected that the comprehensive expense ratio of auto insurance business is expected to enter a period of improvement.
It is worth noting that data and pricing models are still a challenge for insurance institutions at present and in the future. Based on the law of large numbers, the pricing of traditional auto insurance is mainly based on a large amount of historical data, and statistical model methods are used to make actuarial estimates of vehicle risk. However, the risk factors of new energy vehicles, especially intelligent networked vehicles, have changed, and it is difficult to identify the risks of new energy vehicles in the traditional car insurance pricing model, and it is different from traditional fuel vehicles that accumulate long-term and stable data.
From the trend point of view, all insurance companies in the industry are trying to obtain data from vehicles, people, driving behaviors and other parties to carry out pricing, and gradually strengthen the identification and pricing of new energy vehicle risks, and the ability to accurately price has been greatly improved. However, objectively speaking, due to the limited data mastery, especially whether the data of car companies can be directly used for auto insurance pricing involves customer privacy and data security, which needs to be further regulated by the leading departments.
The industry expects that, on the one hand, the control of auto insurance expenses will be further tightened in 2024, and the comprehensive cost ratio of property insurance is expected to further improve. On the other hand, leading insurers have strong competitive advantages, and the competitive landscape of auto insurance business will be further optimized, and certainty can be grasped in the uncertainty of the non-auto market, while small and medium-sized insurers urgently need to explore differentiated development paths.
In line with the above views, Soochow** believes that the overall development of the property insurance industry will maintain a steady and rising trend in 2024, with the growth rate of auto insurance premiums in the whole industry being about 5% and non-auto insurance premiums growing at about 10%. "The motor insurance business is still a red sea market with stock competition, and it is expected that the business involving green insurance and other fields will usher in rapid development. Soochow ** said.
The regulatory policy in 2023 is clear, and the "integration of newspapers and banks" will become the focus of regulatory work in 2024. At present, various insurance companies have accelerated the progress of the "good start" in an all-round way, and many insurance companies have sold in the form of pre-recording according to the regulatory requirement of "not substantially in advance" pre-collection. Judging from the specific performance at the end of the year, the industry's previous overdraft demand has recovered significantly, and the precipitation and production capacity improvement of the core ** personnel of various insurance companies, as well as the increase in the value rate under the "integration of newspaper and banking" of the bancassurance channel, will boost the industry to achieve a "good start" positive growth in 2024.
In addition, actively exploring the development path of high connotation value and the new model of bancassurance cooperation is a common topic for the whole industry, and the bancassurance self-discipline convention is conducive to the deepening of cooperation between leading insurance companies and banksAt present, the risk appetite of high-net-worth individuals is stable, and insurance has gradually become one of the favored financial allocation directions of private high-end customers with its unique allocation value and advantages.
In addition, it is certain that the emergence of new energy vehicles has subverted the traditional logic of car insurance products of insurance companies. From the perspective of industry observation, various institutions are trying to reduce operating costs from digital transformation, race to be the first, conduct more accurate risk pricing for user data, solve problems such as excessive costs on the claim side, and optimize the business link of new energy vehicle insurance, so as to realize the reshaping of the whole process.