On January 8, 2024, China Duty Free released its 2023 annual performance report. According to the report, the operating income in 2023 will be 6757.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2415%, net profit attributable to the parent company 671.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3352%。
This performance is beyond expectations, when the third quarter report came out, everyone was not optimistic about the performance of the fourth quarter, and the market's expectation for the fourth quarter was basically between 51 billion. Now the express report shows a net profit of 15 percent for the fourth quarter1 billion, a significant increase of 27562%, which can be said to greatly exceed the market's expectations, which is also the reason for today's sharp rise.
The company explained the reasons for the growth in performance in the express report, "The company seized the opportunity of consumption recovery and the liberalization of entry and exit policies, focused on stimulating consumption vitality, continued to optimize the commodity structure, and effectively improved operational efficiency, so that the company's main business rebounded significantly, and profitability continued to repair." ”
From this statement, we need to pay attention to two points. First, consumption recovered, exceeding expectations. The market is generally negative about China's economy and consumption, but this report gives us a different answer. Speaking from facts, the performance of China Duty Free gives me hope for China's economic and consumption growth in 2024, and also makes me more confident in 2024.
Second, the report also shows that the company's reforms have been effective. This also lays a good foundation for the further development of the company. Unless there are special circumstances, the company's performance will develop steadily in the next few years.
In terms of valuation, assuming that the net profit in 2024 can increase by another 20%, the net profit in 2024 will be 8 billion, which is about 20 times the dynamic P/E ratio based on the ** price on January 9, 2024. It is a high probability that the company's net profit will reach 10 billion yuan in the next three years, and if it is given a valuation of 30 times, the total market value in 2026 will be 300 billion yuan.
If the market is optimistic, holding it at the current price** for three years, there is a possibility of doubling. It's just that the current A** market is relatively sluggish, and it is not ruled out that the company's stock price may continue to fall. Therefore, you need to be cautious when making decisions.
The above is purely a personal opinion, with personal bias, for reference only, and you will be responsible for acting accordingly.