What will happen if the US financial war fails?Will they go crazy and wreak havoc all over the world?
We know that the U.S. has been engaged in a financial war with China for several years, however, the U.S. still has no hope of victory, and they are now at the peak of their rate hike cycle.
Historically, in past rate hike cycles, moments like this have usually led to global mourning, but this time it was somewhat unusual, and the whole world remained calm.
You know, starting in March last year, the United States increased its benchmark interest rate from zero to 5% in just one year, which is unprecedented.
However, their series of operations do not seem to have the desired effect. The US rate hike did not go out of the ordinary throughout the first half of the year, and everything seemed to be under their control. They raise interest rates quickly, attract dollars back, and try to drive money away by starting a war to avoid safety, all of which are routines they have used in the past.
However, in the second half, things went unexpected. Despite their many efforts, the world's major economies did not experience the financial crisis they expected. Will the financial war, which has been almost won for decades, end in failure?
If the financial war fails, the United States will certainly not accept it silently. This means that their conventional means have been exhausted, and the next step may be to start sabotaging with rogue means.
By March next year, this rate hike will be two years away, which is beyond their average rate hike cycle over the past 18 months. Their goal of raising interest rates will not be achieved, domestic contradictions in the United States will be detonated, the dollar may lose global markets, they will not be able to eliminate debt, and they will not be able to absorb the over-issued currency.
Since the dollar is the world currency, a significant depreciation of the dollar will lead to a complete restructuring of the international order. The U.S. interest rate hike cycle cannot continue indefinitely, and high interest rates can wreak deep havoc on the U.S. economy. What's more, they have been working hard for so long, but they don't see a glimmer of hope for success. Whether it makes sense to stick with it or not, no one can guarantee it.
There are institutions**, and the United States may hold out until around May next year, or even until the third quarter. In the remaining half a year or so, no matter what measures they take, whether they continue to raise interest rates to 7% or voluntarily turn to small rate cuts, they will face the same outcome.
The financial war has failed to achieve its desired goals, and at that point populism within the United States may take over, liquidating financial capital and undermining the three major systems of globalization externally.
Please note that this may affect the interests of each of us. The three major systems of globalization are the industrial chain division system, the goods system and the global monetary and financial system. Now the United States has begun to undermine the system of division of labor in the industrial chain, trying to exclude China, but it is very difficult to implement and almost impossible to achieve.
Although the United States has been trying for several years to rank China in the amount of goods imported by Canada and Mexico, the amount of goods that reach more than $500 billion a year has not increased. It can be said that there is no country in the world that can replace China at present, which is also the ballast stone of Sino-US economic relations. However, we should not be overly optimistic.
If populism in the United States rises its head, they may do whatever it takes to wreak havoc. The destruction of the other two systems is much simpler. There are US military bases on the international shipping corridors, as long as the key nodes are stuck. It would be easier to undermine the monetary and financial system, such as proposing the SWIFT settlement system and freezing our foreign exchange reserves.
However, the price they did so was discredited. So they don't dare to do it easily.
The purpose of analyzing these is to remind everyone what actions the United States will take once the can is broken, so that everyone can take precautions in advance.
The confrontation between major powers is bound to be stormy, so we must prepare in advance. What are the specifics, you can talk about it in the comment area.