Professor John Mearsheimer, a well-known American political scientist, recently expressed skepticism about Putin's claim that he is trying to restore the Soviet Union.
He said: With a little common sense, you know that it is unrealistic to rebuild the Soviet Union.
In fact, Putin, while regretting the collapse of the Soviet Union, also accepted the demise of the Soviet Union and the realities of Europe.
But in February 2022, before the Ukraine crisis erupted, he put security or survival first. He is very worried about Russia's security. Because, in many ways, Russia is a very fragile country.
Especially if you remember what she was like in the 90s of the 20th century. She was in dire condition.
On December 25, 1991, Gorbachev announced his resignation on television.
Chinese often talk about their century-old national humiliation. But in fact, for the Russians, that decade was a decade of national shame.
After that, it took Putin a long time for Russia to be reborn. I think he did. ”
John Mearsheimer.
At the moment, Professor Mearsheimer's views have attracted a lot of attention. In particular, it resonated with the Russians, the Americans.
1. The United States generally discusses Putin's plan to rebuild the Soviet UnionVersion 0: Food for Thought Now, in the United States, Putin plans to rebuild the USSR 2The saying of 0 is popular.
This is not surprising either.
The reason is simple: since World War II, the Soviet Union has been the only superpower on an equal footing with the United States. During this period, the Soviet Union and the United States fought a long Cold War for decades.
Although the final result was a victory for the United States and a sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, objectively speaking, this game was not easy for the United States. The United States was also at risk of losing the competition.
This must be fresh in the memory of many Americans. And as the crisis in Ukraine continues to escalate, Americans began to discuss or worry about Putin's plan to rebuild the Soviet Union20, which is also understandable.
To summarize briefly, the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union can be roughly divided into several stages: beginning, peak, détente, reconciliation and end.
On March 5, 1946, former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill delivered the "Iron Curtain Speech" in Fulton, USA, officially opening the prelude to the Cold War.
Since then, Europe has become a major battleground for the United States and the Soviet Union. Even, today's Ukrainian crisis can be seen as a continuation of the US-Soviet confrontation.
At the same time, from 1946 to the end of 1948, the People's Liberation Army seized the opportunity and basically wiped out the Kuomintang army in less than three years and established New China. Moreover, the baptized Red Army successfully defeated the American army on the frontal battlefield, thus establishing the status of New China, so that the Chinese could overcome any difficulties encountered in the long years that followed.
And for the United States and the Soviet Union, marked by 1956: the world generally recognized that the United States officially replaced Britain as the leader of the Western world, and the USSR became the leader of the socialist camp.
In other words, the two sides have officially begun the road to global hegemony. The major events were the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, and the Afghanistan War. The latter two events, in particular, became wars that affected the fate of the USSR and the United States.
Specifically: 1) Cuban Missile Crisis.
In 1962, the Soviet Union, which delivered missiles to Cuba, attempted to establish a missile launch site in Cuba, was discovered by American U-2 reconnaissance aircraft. The crisis subsided when the United States ordered a military blockade of Cuba and threatened war, and the Soviet Union was forced to withdraw its missiles.
This incident showed that the Soviet Union began to embark on the road of global competition with the United States, and at the same time, it also showed that the strategic advantage at that time was still on the side of the United States.
2) Vietnam War.
From 1961 to 1975, the United States waged a war of aggression against Vietnam. I thought it would end quickly, but I didn't expect it to fall into the quagmire of war.
At the same time, in the 70s, the power of the Soviet Union quickly rose to the point where it could compete with the United States for hegemony, and for a time it had a large advantage. Even throughout the 70s, the USSR was on a strategic offensive, which put a lot of pressure on the United States.
Arguably, these 10 years or so may be the most memorable decade for Americans since World War II.
However, the United States initiated the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States by adjusting its national strategy in a timely manner, while the Soviet Union was ...... by the hostile relations between China and the Soviet Union
3) The war in Afghanistan dragged down the USSR.
With the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and the Soviet Union mired in the 10-year war in Afghanistan, the United States undoubtedly saw a huge strategic opportunity.
As a result, the United States gave full play to its economic and technological advantages, successfully took advantage of the internal situation in the Soviet Union, and then dismantled a superpower step by step.
It can be said that throughout the history of the Cold War, the United States did not win easily. Whether it is militarily, politically, or **, for a long time, the United States will not be able to stabilize the Soviet Union. Even the Vietnam War caused a lot of trouble for the United States. Had it not been for the Soviet Union's internal problems and fatal strategic mistakes in the later years, the history of the Cold War might have been rewritten.
And it is precisely this deep memory, as well as the fact that Russia is a nuclear superpower, that has led to the widespread viewing of the United States as its main adversary and its long-term strategy of weakening. They even want to repeat the changes in the Soviet Union in the hope of gaining huge benefits and an unprecedented sense of security.
And Putin, perceiving this unprecedented crisis, gave up his illusions and quickly took Crimea in 2014, and then again.
Decisive intervention in the war in Syria, persuaded by Iran, significantly improved Russia's geopolitics.
But this apparently succeeded in infuriating the United States. The constant arming and training of Ukraine over the past 8 years is the response of the United States.
So, inevitably, in 2022, the Ukrainian crisis broke out!
This may well be the ultimate test for Russia. Once Russia withstands the pressure and wins, it will be no less historically significant than China's victory in the Korean War.
In other words, Russia will completely wash away the shadow of the previous "decade of national humiliation".
So, now, what is the situation between Russia and Ukraine?
It is worth mentioning that the Mearsheimer professor actually gave the answer as early as the end of September: Russia will win an ugly victory.
He believes: this is a war of attrition. Who will win the war of attrition will largely depend on three factors: the determination of both sides, the population of both sides, and the ** ratio of both sides.
And judging by the current situation, it is clear: Russia has a decisive advantage in the number of people, and also has a clear advantage in the proportion of **, and the two sides are comparable in terms of determination.
So, which side is likely to win the war?
Russia will eventually win this war, but it will not completely defeat Ukraine either.
In other words, it will not occupy all of Ukraine, which is necessary to achieve Moscow's three goals: to overthrow the Ukrainian regime, demilitarize Ukraine, and cut off Kiev's security ties with the West. But Russia will eventually annex large swathes of Ukraine's territory while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional remnant state. In other words, Russia will win an ugly victory. ”
Obviously, Professor Mearsheimer now thinks that Putin has succeeded in bringing Russia back to life, that is, that Russia has basically passed the test set by the United States: Russia is stronger now than it was in the 90s.
As for his belief that it is impossible for Russia to return to the USSR. The reason is simple, today times have changed: the multipolar world is coming at an accelerated pace.
Conclusion There are signs that the course of the war in Ukraine will increasingly affect the national destiny of Russia and the United States.
And, although, the situation is not entirely clear, or it is still too early to say who will win or lose. But Mearsheimer may be a euphemism for reminding the United States not to repeat the same path as the Vietnam War or the war in Afghanistan.
In short, whether his opinion is justified or not, I believe that there is likely to be a clear answer in the coming year.