Economic Herald reporter Liu Yong.
On December 19, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened as scheduled. The Economic Herald reporter learned that at 24 o'clock on December 19, the price limit of gasoline and diesel will be lowered, with gasoline reduced by 415 yuan per ton and diesel reduced by 400 yuan, which is equivalent to an increase in price, and 92 gasoline will rise and fall by 033 yuan, 95 gasoline per rise and fall 034 yuan, 0 diesel per lift34 yuan. After this adjustment, the domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2023 will end with "six consecutive declines".
Bi Mingxin, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said in an interview with the Economic Herald reporter that the rate of change in this round of price adjustment cycle fluctuated negatively, on the one hand, because investors are still worried about the economic outlook, and the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index was below the 50-point boom and bust line for the 13th consecutive month. Secondly, the EIA lowered the global ** demand in 2024 and *** multiple negative factors led to pressure on oil prices.
Liu Bingjuan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that the International Monetary Organization pointed out that the global economy has shown signs of negative impact, which may increase global losses significantly, accounting for about 2 percent of GDP5% to 7%. The U.S. consumer index** unexpectedly rose in November, further reinforcing the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates early next year. At the same time, some institutions said that high interest rates for a longer period of time could slow economic growth and lead to weaker demand. In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation may be over, but the possibility of further rate hikes remains.
Han Zhengji, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that it should be noted that the Secretariat of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries issued a statement saying that a number of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will continue to voluntarily reduce production in the first quarter of next year, with a total production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. However, the market is skeptical and confused by the news, because given the voluntary nature of the production cuts, the market is worried about whether the actual production cuts of the oil producers are in line with the requirements and whether they can meet investors' previous expectations for further production cuts.
Among them, the Office of the Minister of Petroleum of Angola said in a statement that Angola has sent a note to OPEC on the decision of the OPEC+ group of oil producers to lower the country's oil production quota for 2024. Earlier, OPEC+ lowered Angola's oil production target for 2024 to 1.11 million barrels per day at the meeting. The statement said that the decision had not been adopted unanimously and was contrary to Angola's position. Angola reiterated its proposal for a production quota of 1.18 million barrels per day for 2024 during the meeting, and subsequently sent a note to the OPEC secretariat.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently raised the growth of global oil demand for next year, citing the improved economic outlook in the United States and oil prices**. At the same time, the IEA said that global oil demand growth is slowing sharply as economic activity in major countries weakens. The IEA expects global oil consumption to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024, an increase of 130,000 barrels per day from the previous level. The agency said the adjustment was made because of an improved GDP outlook compared to last month's report, which is especially applicable to the United States, which is on track for a soft landing for the economy.
After this adjustment, the domestic refined oil price achieved "six consecutive declines". Looking back, from October 10th to December 5th, the domestic refined oil achieved "five consecutive declines", and the cumulative decline of standard gasoline and diesel was 690 yuan tons and 665 yuan tons, which was equivalent to a price increase of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel respectively54 yuan, 057 yuan, 057 yuan.
This price adjustment has reduced the cost for private car owners and logistics companies. Based on the calculation of ordinary private cars with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, after the price adjustment, the owner will spend about 17 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel. According to the model with 8 liters of fuel consumption per 100 kilometers in the urban area, the average cost per 100 kilometers will be reduced by 2About 6 yuan. For large logistics and transportation vehicles with a full load of 50 tons, the fuel cost is reduced by about 13 yuan per 100 kilometers on average.
Talking about the market outlook, Bi Mingxin said that the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate policy outlook has increased, and investors' wait-and-see sentiment has increased. The four shipping giants suspended Red Sea shipping, the Suez Canal is at risk of closure, and the geopolitical situation is heating up. On the whole, international oil prices may maintain a low ** trend.
The CITIC ** research report believes that in the first quarter of 2024, there may be a repair opportunity for multiple resonances. At the end of the day, there are still many doubts about whether OPEC's production cuts can be implemented. If OPEC implements voluntary production cuts in the first quarter, and at the same time, U.S. production may gradually turn down, it may bring about a revision of expectations. On the demand side, the maintenance season of refineries in the United States and Europe ended in the first quarter, and China's refineries issued import quotas and refined oil export quotas, and the processing volume and import volume may gradually rebound. If there is no significant recession, demand expectations may need to be repaired. On the capital side, at the end of the year, overseas entered the Christmas and New Year's Day holidays, and the transaction was thin and the liquidity was reduced. A new round of trading was launched in the first quarter, and the return of funds may increase speculative demand.
Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that with the current international level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show an upward trend at the beginning. At present, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries are still firmly promoting production cuts, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle is nearing the end, market confidence has been restored, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil ** will have a high probability of raising the price. The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 3, 2024.