Beijing, setting a record for the longest continuous low temperature in December since 1951;Henan, experienced the coldest mid-December since 1961;Shanxi is still in a continuous low temperature. How to deal with the increasingly frequent extreme weather?
Source: Photo by Kale** Jia Qiong.
The strongest cold spell of December has endedZhou Bing, chief expert of climate services at the National Climate Center, said that the large-scale cooling, especially the strongest cold wave in December, has ended. Cold air is the main weather process in winter, and in the near future, it will also be affected by cold air in the eastern part of Inner Mongolia, the central and northern parts of Northeast China, with a cooling of about 4 to 6 and light to moderate snow in some areas. So, the whole warming is beginning, but some areas will also be affected by the cold air.
Experts say December is a very unusual month of temperaturesZhou Bing introduced that in December, the total temperature change is like a seesaw and a roller coaster. It was unusually warm from December 3rd to 13th, and unusually cold from around 14th to 23rd. After this warm and cold transition, we are about to usher in a period that may be warmer than the same period in history, soThe temperature in December is very abnormal
Source: CCTV.
Extreme weather is frequent, what kind of preparations should be made in the future?Yuan Hongyong, dean of the School of Safety Science of Tsinghua University, introduced, 1. In terms of scientific research, it is necessary to study the occurrence of extreme disaster weather, including the law of secondary derivative disasters, when it will occur, the impact on the entire urban society after it occurs, and what kind of form of the most serious node and social unbearable disaster chain will be manifested in science.
2. In terms of action, it is necessary to improve the resilience of cities and societies, improve monitoring and early warning capabilities, improve emergency rescue capabilities, and improve the post-disaster recovery capabilities of cities and societies. The building of these three capacities and the improvement of anticipation capabilities will make it possible to prepare for possible future disasters in the future.
2024 is likely to be an even hotter yearIt could also be a more frequent, powerful year for extreme weather.
This year is already the "warmest year in the world", so why should it be even hotter next year?Actually, this year isFor the first time in seven years, El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, a moderate-intensity El Niño event will form in the second half of the year, which is expected to continue into next spring.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It occurs on average every 2 to 7 years and usually lasts 9 to 12 months.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) just announced it on 30 November2023 is the hottest year on record in human history。Data as of the end of October this year show that this year's average temperature is about 1. percent higher than the pre-industrial baseline due to climate change and El Niño4℃。
It is worth noting thatThe impact of El Niño on global temperatures is usually most pronounced in the year after it starts, in 2024
Source: Photo by Kale** Ning Ying.
The hottest year on record was 2016, followed by an El Niño in 2015-2016, with rising SST in the eastern Pacific Ocean, warming in many areas, and unusually active typhoons. The climate situation in the past two years is very similar to 2015, with high temperatures and active typhoons, especially in 2022, even with the existence of the La Niña effect that inhibits global warming, the global temperature still reached the sixth place in history, which is extremely close to the fifth place in 2015.
By all indications, the World Meteorological Organization** expects temperatures to rise further in most parts of the world in the future, with at least one of the five years from 2023 to 2027 breaking the high temperature record set in 2016, with a 98% probability. That is, "there is no hottest, only hotter",Not only is it likely to be hotter in 2024, but there is a high probability of "record high temperatures" in the next 5 years
However, a warming global average temperature does not mean that temperatures are rising in all regions. In some areas, the average temperature will rise significantly more than in others, and in some areas, the temperature will even decrease.
Source: Photo by Kale** Ning Ying.
In 2024, global warming may break 1 for the first time5℃National Weather Service (Dec. 8)**The year 2024 could be 1. The global average surface temperature is likely to be 15 years above the first year。This is the first time that the Met Office has the potential for temperatures to temporarily exceed 1 in a year5. Temporarily exceeding does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been violated. In 2015, ** from around the world** agreed at a meeting in Paris to work to prevent global temperatures from rising by 1 above pre-industrial levels5℃。But more than 1The first year of 5 is sure to be a landmark event in climate history.
According to **, 2024 has a 27% chance of being 1 percent warmer than the average temperature from 1850 to 19005℃。However, the probability is higher than 27%, as temperatures in 2023 exceed expectations. For the 10 years leading up to 2023, the global average surface temperature has been in the range of the Met Office's first year of the year. But for a record 2023, the average warming from January to October is 14, up from 1 at the end of 2022**1℃—1.3℃。
Part of the reason may be that the current El Niño phenomenon is stronger than expected. During El Niño, changing winds spread warm water throughout the Pacific Ocean, temporarily warming the atmosphere. In addition, the eruption of Tonga's underwater volcano in 2022 also injected a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere, which has a warming effect. What's more, temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere are warmer than expected, and the reasons for this are not entirely clear.
Only in terms of the temperature in a single month and not in the year,For the first time on record, it exceeded 15 The month of restriction is January 2016, which coincided with the last strong El Niño. The following month was even warmer, with an abnormal warming of 164 is by far the hottest month. However, this number may be exceeded in November this year.
Earlier this year, November 17 was the first day to exceed the 2 limit of pre-industrial warming, according to short-term data. Based on current trends, long-term average temperatures are expected to rise above the 2 limit around the 40s of this century.
*: China's well-off network WeChat*** comprehensive CCTV news client, science and technology**, Yangcheng Evening News.
Editor-in-charge: Zhou Jingtao.
Review: Wang Fang.