**Times reporter Wu Qi.
The 2023 ** Economic Work Conference was held recently and became the focus of the market.
In this regard, professionals from Qianhai Open Source, Bosera, China Merchants and other public offerings interpreted the content of the meeting in a timely manner, and made relevant analyses on the positive impact of the conference on the capital market and the investment opportunities it brings.
* The Economic Work Conference comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work in 2024. Looking forward to 2024, what are the signals and policy measures for macroeconomic control?
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, said that the overall tone of this year's economic work conference is to fight for the economy. In 2024, in terms of macro policies, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking down, and more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment.
Liu Sidian, investment manager of Bosera ** Macro Strategy Department, believes that from the overall guiding ideology of next year's work, enhancing economic vitality, preventing and resolving risks, and improving social expectations will be the top priority. In the analysis of the situation, the meeting pointed out that "some industries have overcapacity", and in the policy guidance called for "expanding profitable investment", and also proposed solutions to this problem. In terms of macro policy guidance, fiscal policy requires making good use of space, increasing the leverage of fiscal power on economic development, noting that monetary policy will remain relatively stable, and also noting that the importance of policy orientation consistency is further increasing.
Li Zhan, chief economist of the China Merchants Research Department, pointed out that the meeting for the first time included the first level of expectations into the scope of monetary policy, and the medium and long-term growth center of credit may decline. Next year, the demand for the total monetary policy will be lower, and more attention will be paid to "flexible, moderate, precise and effective" to cooperate with fiscal force, but there may be structural monetary policy supporting measures such as equipment renewal and refinancing.
Li Zhan said that the prevention and resolution of risks is still the top priority, and the tone has not changed, continuing to focus on real estate, local ** debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions. The meeting proposed to "plan a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform", and new taxes may be introduced in the future, and the relationship between the government and the local government may be further clarified, and the matching degree of financial power and power will be further improvedIncorporate non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientations, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and a joint force is formedEmphasis should be placed on the coordination and consistency of policies in the areas of fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, regional, science and technology, and environmental protection, so as to avoid causing inconsistencies and negating the effects of economic policies.
So, what positive impact will the economic work conference have on the capital market?
2023 is coming to an end, and looking ahead to 2024, "the expectation of China's economic recovery is increasing." Yang Delong believes that the ** Economic Work Conference has made specific arrangements for economic work and policies in 2024, which is conducive to stabilizing market confidence. From the perspective of the first level, the current Chinese capital market is near the historical bottom area, and many high-quality products have gradually fallen out of value. In the medium and long term, it is a better investment strategy to seize the opportunity of the valuation recovery of high-quality companies in 2024 by laying out some high-quality leading stocks or high-quality leading stocks on dips. It's important to maintain confidence and patience at the bottom of the market, and by taking advantage of some of the opportunities that have been wrongly killed from a medium- to long-term perspective, is the key to achieving alpha.
Wang Hongyuan, strategic consultant of Qianhai Open Source, believes that at present, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks or Chinese concept stocks, as well as Chinese bonds and RMB exchange rates, they are all seriously undervalued, and there will be a relatively large opportunity for valuation recovery in 2024.
According to Li Zhan's analysis, the policy tone emphasizes more on policy efficiency than quantity, fiscal policy emphasizes more on improving quality and efficiency, monetary policy emphasizes flexibility and moderation, and the medium and long-term growth center of credit may decline. Maintain the judgment of slow economic recovery, continue to pay attention to the landing of trillions of national bonds, the continuous promotion of the three major projects, and the effect of the "16 financial measures" on boosting demand.
In addition, the public offering people also saw a new investment direction from this meeting. Li Zhan pointed out that the overall tone of the meeting was mainly stable, but it highlighted the importance of "progress". The "progress" of "promoting stability through progress" represents structural reform and high-quality development, and industries representing new quality productivity may usher in policy catalysts one after another. The meeting put "scientific and technological innovation leading the construction of a modern industrial system" in front of "focusing on expanding domestic demand", and highlighted the importance of "progress".
For example, in the construction of a modern industrial system, it is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains in the manufacturing industry, vigorously promote new industrialization, develop the digital economy, accelerate the development of artificial intelligence, create a number of strategic emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, and open up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences.
Liu Sidian noted that the role of emerging technologies in the construction of a modern industrial system has been further emphasizedExpansion of domestic demand stimulates potential consumption and expands productive investment;It is necessary to plan major measures to further deepen reform in an all-round way;It is also noted that in the part of risk prevention, from the perspective of the length of the discussion, the risk response and prevention of real estate has received unprecedented attention.
In the context of intensified competition in the world's major economies and the urgent need for domestic transformation, the pursuit of technological breakthroughs has become a more urgent task. Jiang Chenlong, a strategic researcher at Xingye, pointed out that in terms of consumption, it actively cultivates new consumption growth points such as smart homes, cultural and entertainment tourism, sports events, and domestic "trendy products".Reform in key areas, the reform of state-owned enterprises ranks first;Real estate is still to coordinate and resolve risks, and accelerate the transformation of affordable housing urban villages.