The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still two months away from two years, and the war situation has not yet found a decisive change, but the outbreak of a Palestinian-Israeli conflict is affecting both Russia and Ukraine, and more and more aid that should have been Ukrainian has been transferred to Israel, so that the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is changing, and the balance of victory seems to be slowly tilting in favor of Russia.
Russia recently released the latest economic data, which showed that Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 35%, industrial production and manufacturing both increased, and the unemployment rate fell to 2 for the first time9%, the Russian economy experienced a contraction of 2 in 2022After 1%, it actually achieved positive growth in the second year of the conflict, and the Russian economy has improved
Although everything is developing in the direction of Russia's favor, Sunshine feels that Russia has long been in trouble, and these fragments of good news are not enough to break its predicament.
Military stalemate. As the second military power in the world, since it has decided to defend its strategic interests by force, it must not drag its feet, especially if it is still a war of the best people, and the Soviet Union was not slowly consumed in Afghanistan in this way.
Russia invested more troops in Ukraine than in Afghanistan, when the Soviet Union invested 620,000 troops in Afghanistan, and at the beginning of the blitzkrieg in Ukraine, Russia invested 200,000 troops, and in the past two years, Russia has conscripted a total of 10220,000 recruits, of which 6250,000 for contract soldiers, 3970,000 is a compulsory soldier, almost twice as much as the war in Afghanistan, and it is never an exaggeration to invest so many troops to say that it is a gamble, but the Russian army cannot end the opponent on the battlefield, and it is difficult to expand the results, and as a ** person, it is basically impossible to end the conflict through negotiations, and the war situation is so stalemate, Russia does not have the ability to "feed the war with war", and has not always maintained the strength of the conflict.
According to the latest budget amendments announced by Russia, the military budget for 2023 has almost doubled to 97 trillion rubles (about 725 billion yuan, about 101.1 billion US dollars), accounting for one-third of Russia's total spending.
According to the latest publicly available data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, the military expenditure of the Russian army in January and February of this year amounted to 2 trillion rubles, and in 4 June 359 trillion. This shows that Russia currently spends 1 trillion rubles (about $10.4 billion) a month on the battlefield in Ukraine for the war, which is about 3$4.6 billion.
It is obvious that if the war continues, it may be that Ukraine does not fight to the last man, and the Russian economy will not be able to bear it first.
Moreover, this conflict has basically exhausted Russia's war potential, and in the future, Russia will no longer be able to launch large-scale military operations, and NATO expansion will be even more unscrupulous.
Economic woes. Didn't the opening chapter say that Russia is growing positively against the trend?How is Russia in economic trouble again?
The Russian economic apparatus is very simple, roughly two 50%;Foreign trade exports account for nearly 50% of GDP, and energy exports account for nearly 50% of total foreign trade.
In 2021, before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's total annual exports reached about $490 billion, accounting for 47% of GDP that year. Among them, the total value of energy exports is about 240.7 billion US dollars: ** accounted for 110.2 billion US dollars, 68.7 billion US dollars for oil-related products, 54.2 billion US dollars for pipeline natural gas, and 7.6 billion US dollars for liquefied natural gas.
Under the influence of the oil price cap order of the United States and Europe, Russia's oil revenue has plummeted.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia's export revenue from ** and petroleum products averaged $15.2 billion per month in January 2023, down 22% from $19.5 billion in 2022.
Russia's oil exports in 2023 are close to 2500 million tons, exports have increased, but revenues have decreased, and it is clear that the price cap order is working, because the price cap will put Russia in a weak position in the bargaining.
This can be seen in the import of oil from China**.
From January to November 2022, Russia had 79.78 million tons to China, with a transaction volume of 546$8.4 billion;
From January to November 2023, Russia sent a total of 97.46 million tons to China, with a transaction volume of 5.50$1.8 billion;
Russia's trade with China increased by 22%, and the transaction volume increased by only 06%, which shows that China** has dropped a lot.
You may say that it is the problem of international ***, you might as well look at Saudi Arabia, in the first 11 months of this year, Saudi Arabia gave China 79.97 million tons worth 50 billion US dollars, in contrast, Russia *** is 10% cheaper, it is obvious that it is not a problem with international oil prices.
It can be seen that the oil price cap order has been playing a role, directly causing Russia to suffer heavy losses.
Let's take a look at Russian natural gas, Russia's natural gas exports in 2023 will not just be cut in half, in 2022, Russia's natural gas exports will be 184.4 billion cubic meters, and in 2023, Russia's natural gas exports to Europe will drop to 29 billion cubic meters, and the total annual export volume will fall below 100 billion cubic meters, while the average price of Russian natural gas exports is also shrinking. Russia's Ministry of Economic Development estimates that the average price of natural gas exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union will fall to "434 per 1,000 cubic meters" in 20236 dollars", while in 2022, the average export price was 730 thousand cubic meters, ** almost halved.
Russia's collapse in the conflict has also caused the collapse of Russia's other pillar of military exports.
In 2021, Russia's export sales were about $14.6 billion, and in 2022, Russia's exports were about $8 billion, down 40% year-on-year.
Since the beginning of 2023, the data released by Russia in the first half of the year is that the relevant arms trade exports have fallen by more than 30% year-on-year, and it is obvious that this pillar no longer exists.
At the end of 2022, Russia's grain exports exceeded $41 billion, and this year's Russian grain harvest should exceed this data. However, even if agriculture has been modernized, it is still essentially dependent on the weather for food, and this year's harvest may be short, and next year's harvest may be in arrears, and as a pillar of the economy, it is inherently unstable.
Russia's economic structure is difficult to change in a short period of time, which also determines that oil and gas will be Russia's lifeblood for a long time, and the current energy market is no longer a seller's market, but a buyer's market.
The big market is just a few pieces, except for the United States, China, India is a big market, but for Russia can only be incremental can not cause qualitative change, Russia to maintain oil and gas revenues, the EU market is indispensable, then for Russia there are only two choices, one is to accept the oil price limit order, the other is to borrow a third country to export, Russia chose the latter, at present, Russia is lower than the Brun ** through the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates exports to Europe.
Among them, international oil prices are the most critical, once oil prices plummet, Russia has to be lower than the international oil price sales, which is very fatal to the Russian economy, especially when Russia's military action is still ongoing, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which can play an important role in OPEC, are particularly important to Russia, so there is Putin's visit to the Middle East.
Political dilemma. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has directly pulled down the political power Russia from the altar, and the political influence of the five permanent members has been greatly reduced under the pressure of the West after the conflict, and Russia has made matters worse after the arrest warrant of Putin by the International Criminal Court.
Although Russia does not recognize it, it does not affect its functioning.
These influential meetings of the G20 and APEC basically did not have a chance with Putin.
Because South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, the BRICS meeting hosted by South Africa has to be abandoned, and Brazil has also signed this treaty among the five BRICS countries.
Epilogue. Russia is not as healthy as the data shows, but it is already in crisis and in multiple predicaments.
The military stalemate cannot end the conflict, to end the final need to look at the face of the United States, if you want to end the negotiations with the United States, Russia has to be prepared to sacrifice a large part of its interests, Sansheng speculates that Ukraine may be carried into the European Union by the United States, the purpose is very simple is to enter the European Union to prevent the United States and Europe from getting closer again.
At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the ruble against the US dollar had all the way to below 109:1, and in the case of Russian exchange rate control, in October this year, the ruble against the US dollar was the lowest ** to 102:1. The economic structure is too monotonous, the dependence on oil and gas is too large, once it is too large, Russia faces the possibility of collapse, so it is very important to stabilize OPEC's Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and cannot increase production according to the wishes of the United States.
Politically, not to mention, now Russia can only be in peripheral diplomacy.
More serious is actually strategic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may make Ukraine shed its last drop of blood, and Russia has basically knocked out all its war potential, and it is impossible to prevent large-scale military operations, so what should Russia do if NATO expands in the direction of the Caspian Sea again?