1. I don't know how the index will go in the short and medium term, in the long run, I said once on the blog at the end of November: "I am optimistic that China's ** index will hit a record high in the long term for three or five years, seven or eight years." The reason for the record high is: At present, China's ** market is in the process of "long-term huge transformation of traditional stocks and technology stocks", that is, China's ** is undergoing a huge transformation!The situation that traditional industry stocks such as real estate, brokerage, insurance, nonferrous metals, coal, liquor, food, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics occupied the index weight in previous years will slowly change in the next few years starting this year. Even some leading pharmaceutical stocks, with the development of artificial intelligence, the speed of screening new drugs with artificial intelligence is very fast, they are facing the impact of other emerging artificial intelligence companies, and they need to change or are afraid that they will not be able to keep up with the changes.
In fact, the most reasonable explanation for the Chinese ** index in the last one or two years is: when the traditional industry stocks are not strong enough for future development and because they have occupied a large weight of the index before, their long-term downward process will drive the index naturally long-termIn the process of traditional stocks, because China's technology stocks have not yet come up, there is no weight index space left by traditional stocks, so it is difficult for the index to rise in the short term. China has adopted a lot of rescue strategies in the past few months, and the reason why it is difficult to reverse the ** is the fundamental logic of the above. The rest of our ** system is not perfect, the size is not circle money, refinancing bonds, etc., in fact, they are secondary reasons, secondary contradictions.
Once China completes the transformation process from traditional stocks to technology stocks, these technology stocks will lead the index upwards in the future, just like the trend of U.S. stocks in the past 14 years, after the value of some emerging technologies has become bigger and stronger enough to influence the index weights like CATL in previous years. Therefore, at present, many people are worried, worried that no one will fry in China in the future, in fact, I am not worried at all, because if you are human, you will have humanity, and if you are human, you will not be able to change the psychology of wanting to be rich. Therefore, once China's transformation is completed, and the index begins to slowly lead the technology stocks, the funds will come again like a crucian carp crossing the river.
In fact, I have long known the reason for China's ** in the last year or two**, but I just don't want to point it out, I just don't want to say it. Today, I just think it's better to say it, and it's better to say it.
In the short term, in half a year, if you want to stop falling, you only need the head companies in the lithium battery sector, photovoltaic sector, and liquor sector to stop falling. Because these head companies account for a large weight, it is difficult for them to stop falling not only **. As for whether these top company stocks are currently falling in place and whether they are reasonable, I really don't want to talk about it here.
2. At present, the ** index is mainly dragged down by the leading companies in the three major sectors of new energy lithium batteries, photovoltaics and liquor. In fact, some of the other sectors have fallen into place, but because the index is not only falling, they do not dare to rise and only dare to trade sideways there. When China's ** completes the transformation process of traditional stocks to technology stocks, once the index slowly rises, these other sideways sectors will improve with the **good**, and do not worry about how they will be cut in half in the future, such as Hanbell Precision Machinery and many other sectors ** is now such an embarrassing situation.
3. In fact, in the past two weeks, the ** index has continued to fall, and the optical and optoelectronic sectors have gone well, such as Accelink Technology, Huagong Technology, Fujing Technology, Xin Yisheng, etc.;Information technology stocks such as Sugon, Venustech, Newland, and Supermap Software are also trending well, but they have not yet obtained the "right to speak in the index" and cannot influence the index. Especially in the optical and optoelectronic sector, although after June 16 this year, because of the first half of the year, after the rise was too large, but on December 1, basically the entire sector has stopped falling and began to turn upward;In fact, the entire optical optoelectronic sector (including optical communications, optical modules, etc.) has been the overall pattern of the bull plate, the overall trend has been maintained upward, I personally feel that it is expected that in the next one or two years, two or three years will take over the position of lithium batteries and photovoltaic plates in the previous years, and become the medium and long-term hot plate in the first year.
However, at present, there are still few real high-tech stocks in China, which is related to the overall lack of cutting-edge technology enterprises in China. There are only some high-tech stocks such as Huada Jiutian, Loongson Zhongke, Jingjiawei, Suochen Technology, VeriSilicon and other high-tech stocks, many of these stocks are currently general or even loss-making, but the current price-earnings ratio valuation is already in place, and it is very high. Some of China's high-tech enterprises are currently in a situation where they are not profitable or have very little profit, and these technology companies still have a long way to catch up to the level of global high-tech like Apple, Nvidia and other American companies, which is also the reason why China's first index needs to "wait for transformation", and waiting for transformation requires a time process to cultivate these high-tech enterprises.
When the high-tech enterprises in our country have not really made substantial profits and have not yet achieved the world's top two status, China's first index is in the process of waiting for transformation, and the index is indeed difficult to get up temporarily, and we need to be prepared;But in the end, three or four years later, four or five years later, the future of China's ** is very good. So before there is no good time, we can only find industry prospects in the next two or three years, such as the optical optoelectronics sector, the technology sector, etc., to do, and wait for China's ** to complete the transformation process of the index weight plate type. In the process of waiting for you and me, doing these sectors can still ensure that we will be profitable in the next one or two years, two or three years, as long as it is profitable, it will be a win. So put your mind at ease, go to work with peace of mind when you should go to work, and slowly wait for the future in a good plate.
4. Say a digression to see the best picture, Some netizens think that the world's leading company in China is not good at making nonlinear crystals, but you really go to see other people's graphics, and you take a look at Zhou**, but it is more than your recent rise in optical communication peers Accelink Technology, Taichenguang, etc., than Huagong Technology, etc., and even more than the last one or two months of the rise of the new Yisheng and other stocks, the overall upward trend is more obvious, and the graphics remain perfect. Although it is true that its rise in the first half of this year is not as large as the above stocks, but in the second half of the year, people are more resistant to declines than almost all of your peers in the optical communication sector, and the upward trend is more obvious
Since mid-June this year, the overall trend of the leading companies in the nonlinear crystal world has been upward, and the upward trend is stronger and more obvious than that of almost all optical communication peers. Do you think you don't know the true face of Lushan, only because you are in this mountain?Or is the bright future of this nonlinear crystal industry company that determines the big capital, and the big institutions are looking at it and keeping it in their hearts?If everyone can see the future clearly, and everyone can foresee the future, then there are billionaires everywhere, if you don't understand, you need to consult someone who can understand, and the threesome must have my teacher and ......
Note: The above blog post examples**are all to illustrate the logic of a**city, and I don't want any netizens to participate in the above**, they are**!）
100 help plan