Author: Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice, Tsinghua University.
On January 8, 2024, the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University released a macro report on the theme of "Establishing First, Breaking Down, Promoting Stability: China's Economic Outlook 2024" at the 46th Tsinghua University China and the World Economic Forum. Li Daokui made the following speech at the forum.
Li Daokui: Thank you to Li Ke Aobo, thank you to the young team, they have done a very comprehensive, very in-depth explanation, I will emphasize a few points very briefly. Our report is:Three judgments, one outlook.
First of all, we particularly emphasize that China's economy is still a growing economy, still in adolescence, full of vigor, and still has potential, and this judgment must be firmly grasped. Some people abroad say that China has peaked, and some people even say that we have the same economy as Japan in the 90s, but these are completely ignorant judgments.
The second judgment is that the current problems of China's economy cannot be simply attributed to the epidemic, nor can it be simply attributed to some superficial problems that need to be solved urgently, including local government bonds, including real estate, including the enthusiasm of private economic investment. We must be objective and sober, and on the basis of judgment based on confidence in China, we must admit that we have some long-term problems, and the long-term problems that have formed over the past 10 years or so must be resolvedIt is very simple, that is, in the past, we have been emphasizing that social governance in the social field should be standardized and orderly, and objectively has a strong contractionary effect on the development of the economy, so our macro policy orientation must be adjusted in a timely manner, in the words of traditional Chinese medicine, yin and yang must be balanced, some political, social governance principles are not to be trampled on, it is yang, is rigid. Economics and finance belong to yin and flowing water, just like the building of the School of Economics and Management, the lecture hall is round, and the law building next to it belongs to the yang, which is a square building
Based on these three judgments,First, there is potential, second, there are problems, and third, we believe that the country's policy has clearly pointed out the problem, and this ** economic conference is probably the most important one in more than ten years, and it is a directional adjustmentIt is clearly stated that high-quality development is the last word.
So based on these judgments, we give a general outlook, we believe that in 2024 China's economy is expected to reverse the past ten years, the growth rate that began in 09 has been declining, and in 2024 we hope that China's economy can reach about 5% growth, which is very good. In 2023 we estimate it to be 4A growth of 5% cannot be calculated according to the low base in 2022, so it is considered 53% figure, not good feeling, 53% is the apparent growth rate, but the actual feeling is 45%。
So the overall judgment, this year our Chinese economy is expected to reverse the downward trend in the past, which we are very much looking forward to, of course, there is an important premise, that is, our policy adjustment must be in place, to overcome the inertia, the current policy inertia is very large, the highest decision-making level put forward a clear new judgment, but the following may not be able to immediately understand. Therefore, this year is whether the economic work departments and local governments can understand the new direction and new spirit of the economic work conference at the highest level, formulate new policies in a timely manner, and make the policies land. We look forward to it together.