The recent situation with Bitcoin ETFs has been unpredictable. Today we're going to dive into the topic and find out what's going on.
First of all, the exciting news is that the SEC announced on Wednesday that it had extended Franklin's ETF, which was really unexpected. The exact booking time was booked early next year, but it was brought forward. This means that there may be a major change in the application that is about to take place. Strikingly, the final decision date for Bitcoin spot ETFs is January 10 next year. If the SEC only announces the results on the same day, even if it is approved, it may face the risk of the market being exhausted and triggering the overall ** However, as it stands, several analysts at Bloomberg believe that the SEC may be brought forward, which will bring more surprises than expected. Of course, this is in line with the speculation they approved, and the official announcement was made before the January 10th issue.
Next, the news to be shared can be a bit frustrating for everyone. That's whether the SEC will actually approve Bitcoin spot ETFs. For those who are new to the crypto space, the current market is full of information that can be unsettling and dazzling. They may not have lived through the last market cycle and don't know enough about it. And as an experienced old investor, I can clearly tell you that in the 2019 small bull market, a similar situation happened, and the final result was that the ETF was rejected and Wall Street completed a successful sell high and buy low.
In addition, there are some potential risks to be aware of, such as the market maker targeting a long position of more than $6 billion, is it bullish or bearish at the momentWhat other potentials are worth paying attention to are the questions we are pondering. Therefore, before you need to invest, be sure to do adequate research and analysis and don't blindly follow the herd. Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin ETFs has indeed undergone many changes, and everyone should be vigilant and rational, however, I believe that as long as we remain rational and boutique, we will be able to succeed in this market. The above personal views and suggestions, investment needs to be high-quality, and the market is risky.
In April '19, the SEC (U.S. Exchange Commission) began reviewing Bitwise's ETF (Exchange Traded**) applications, triggering multiple applications in the Bitcoin market that were substantial. However, in September of the same year, Vanda Capital canceled the ETF, which led to a sharp increase in the price of the currency, which caused many people to suffer heavy losses. By October, Bitwise's ETF application was ultimately denied. This shows that Wall Street is using the news to hype the market, not for the first time and not for the last.
Therefore, for those who are new to the crypto space, the currency space should not be overly blindly optimistic. From the perspective of the strategy of creating suspense, if the SEC approves the ETF now, then they will have no means to continue to promote the market in the future. As a result, they chose to push a wave** first and then wait until a year later to regain control of the market. This situation is more in their interest. It's important to note that all of Bitcoin's major compliance developments occurred during a bull run.
For example, in late 2017, Bitcoin's CM-1 option was approved;And at the end of 2021, **ETF was also approved. All of these successfully triggered the price of the currency at that time to push to the high point of the cycle. Therefore, according to this logic, Bitcoin's spot ETF may not materialize until 2025. Despite the fact that people in the crypto world are always self-motivated, self-motivated, and major institutions have expressed confidence, the SEC's attitude towards this has not been clear. This is just speculation. Although the normal probability of approval may be less than 20%, we still believe that the probability of approval this time is as high as 70%.
Among them, there is a 50% probability that Shuxing is confident in the high pass rate of BlackRock ETFs. As long as BlackRock's ETF is not revoked, it should still have a chance of passing. However, regardless of the outcome, when the ETF results come out, the market is likely to have a **, and possibly even earlier**. If it passes, the market may briefly **, such as supporting the 40,000 mark. But it is also possible that the direct benefits will be exhausted and begin to appear**. If it doesn't pass, the market could be sharply**, especially now that there are a lot of bulls**, which could trigger a chain of Chinese New Year, causing some markets to fall sharply. On less liquid exchanges, it may fall below the 30,000 mark. In general, both of these scenarios are possible.
*The last one has become the last wave of the big bull market**, don't panic, especially for newbies, be brave**.
SSV is a good project with a very strong rally. Like Lead, it is a project in the Ethereum staking space, but it has a smaller market cap, so it may have more explosive power after the Cancun upgrade. The recent operation can be said to be very successful, and the contract has even achieved a total win record.
Next, let's look at some data to explain why Ethereum is relatively weak. Recently, there has been no significant increase in the amount of new staking on Ethereum, and the long-term ** volume has not changed significantly compared with the previous months. However, there is an unusual trend in the amount of unstaking withdrawals. With the ** of the currency price, the exit volume has increased from 1500 to 2100, and the profit is huge. Therefore, many long-term large investors are unstaking one after another to achieve profits. This is not a positive sign. What's more, there is a top divergence in Bitcoin at the daily level, and the MACD is showing an unfavorable position. Ethereum's big whale has begun to reverse at more than 2100. So, while the market looks very buoyant at the moment, it may just be in the air.
In addition, let's pay attention to the long and short liquidation data of Bitcoin contracts, which is a scene in a zero-sum game. The data of the past 30 days shows that the long positions have accumulated rapidly, and from the current ** to between 34,000, 600 million Manhattan long positions have been accumulated. This is a data that caught our attention. Imagine that if ** is smashed at the 34,000 position, the 600 million long orders will face the risk of liquidation. At the same time, the short position as a counterparty will gain 600 million.
Therefore, we would like to remind everyone not to be overly optimistic. The big wash in the spot market will eventually come, it's just a matter of time. We need to reap the benefits of the market, rather than blindly chasing profits. Of course, that's not to say that we can't focus on data, on the contrary, understanding data can help us better understand the market.