In 2023, the real estate policy environment will become more and more relaxed.
In 2023, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and the most advanced departments at all levels have frequently optimized the property market policies to promote the stable operation of the real estate market, and by the end of the year, the policy environment has approached the most relaxed stage in 2014.
According to Zhuge Housing statistics, as of December 18, local regulation and control policies have been issued 751 times this year, an increase of more than 140 times over last year, covering more than 330 cities. Among them, the number of introductions in September reached the peak since last year, and more than 140 times were issued in a single month.
Although the policy environment continues to be loose, factors such as weak residents' income expectations and housing price expectations are still restricting the pace of market repair.
In this market environment, where will the real estate market go in 2024, and how will the policy side exert force?
After more than two years of market overshoot, the real estate industry is expected to gradually stabilize in 2024 with the coordinated efforts of policies at both ends of supply and demand, and the favorable factors are increasing. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, said.
Policy easing has intensified.
For the real estate industry, the policy environment in 2023 is becoming more and more accommodative.
In fact, in the first half of 2023, there will be no substantial blockbuster stimulus policies at the ** level, and most of the policies issued by local governments are to optimize and adjust the current system, or to regulate the market order, and the policy strength is limited to "supporting but not lifting".
Among them, in terms of policy adjustment measures, the optimization of the provident fund loan policy and the implementation of housing purchase subsidies account for the majority, including increasing the maximum loan amount of the provident fund, reducing the down payment ratio of the first two sets of provident fund loans, supporting the withdrawal of provident fund for down payment, and extending the loan term.
Mainly in the first quarter, driven by the release of pent-up demand and the overall loosening of policies, the real estate industry ushered in a wave of small spring. CRIC analysts pointed out.
However, the second quarter failed to continue the upward trend, the growth momentum declined, residents' expectations for home purchases declined, and real estate development investment and new construction continued to be under pressure.
CRIC analysts pointed out that in the third quarter of 2023, the Politburo meeting set the tone of the industry's supply and demand relationship has undergone a major change, taking this as a watershed, and the policy intensity has gradually shifted from "supporting but not lifting" to "lifting and using both".
On July 24, the Politburo meeting proposed to "adapt to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market", which set the tone for the real estate market. Since then, many ministries and commissions have clarified the direction of real estate policy optimization, local policies have continued to land, and the restrictive policies introduced in the past market overheating stage are gradually withdrawn or optimized.
Among them, on the demand side, down payments, interest rates, and mortgages have been lowered one after another, and core cities have started the "four restrictions" relaxation tideOn the supply side, relief measures such as "three not less than" and "white list of real estate enterprises" have been put forward one after another.
According to CRUI statistics, in the third quarter, local policies were loosened and accelerated, 133 provinces and cities relaxed real estate policies 218 times, the frequency doubled compared with the second quarter, and in September, it ushered in the double restriction of core cities, Ningqinghan and other 10 second-tier cities fully canceled purchase restrictions, Guangsu and other purchase restrictions were reduced, and 8 cities were lifted from sales restrictions.
Due to the delay in the property market, the policy was relaxed in December.
The first economic work conference held from December 11th to 12th set the tone that the economic work in 2024 should seek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, establish first and then break down, and the real estate field should resolve industry risks, promote the "three major projects", and accelerate the construction of a new development model.
Subsequently, on December 14, Beijing and Shanghai quickly implemented the optimization measures of the housing purchase policy, involving the reduction of the down payment ratio, the reduction of mortgage interest rates, and the optimization and adjustment of the standard of ordinary housing.
On the whole, the continued downturn in the real estate market and the accumulation of industry risks have had an adverse impact on the stability of the entire macroeconomic and financial system, and stabilizing the real estate market is crucial to stabilizing the macroeconomy. Analysts from the China Index Institute said.
In 2024, the policy will continue to be accommodative.
According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, since 2023, more than 700 real estate policies have been issued by ** and local governments, and most of the local policies adopt the method of improving and optimizing the provident fund policy and issuing housing purchase subsidies, and involve optimizing the purchase restriction policy, reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate, and optimizing the supervision of pre-sale funds.
Industry insiders believe that although the number of policies introduced is not as high as in 2022, the optimization efforts have been increased, and the restrictive policies in most cities have been canceled, and the policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014.
As for how the real estate policy environment will develop in 2024, there is a lot of concern.
From December 21 to 22, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction was held in Beijing to systematically summarize the work in 2023, analyze the situation, and clarify the key tasks in 2024. The meeting pointed out that next year's work should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and focusing on 18 aspects of work in 4 major sectors.
The National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development has made important arrangements for housing and other related work in 2024, and has a clearer understanding of what to do and how to do it. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.
Chen Wenjing said that on the whole, the meeting of the housing and construction department further clarified the direction of the real estate policy in 2024, China's housing development is entering the stage from "whether it is good" to "whether it is good or not", the meeting emphasized that it is necessary to "make efforts to build a good house and create a new track in the housing field", and the increase in the supply of "good houses" also means that it will promote more improved housing demand into the market, and there is still a large space for the release of improved housing demand in the future.
Looking forward to 2024, real estate policies are expected to be effective in three aspects.
First of all, take the construction of the "three major projects" as the starting point to promote the construction of a new model of real estate development. The "three major projects" such as affordable housing and urban village renovation are important contents of the reform of diversified housing supply, and they are also the meaning of the new model of real estate development.
Secondly, the implementation of supply-side financial support, the implementation of detailed rules, so that the "three not less than", "financing three arrows", "real estate enterprise white list" and other measures are truly effective.
Finally, reduce taxes and fees on housing transactions, such as buying the only family house or improving the house, reducing the deed tax, shortening the value-added tax, personal income tax exemption period, etc., and through fiscal and tax incentives such as talent subsidies, new citizens, and multi-child family housing subsidies, to stabilize demand and then stabilize the market.
Experts believe that in the future, local restrictive policies are expected to be further optimized, and there is still room for loosening the regulation and control policies of first-tier and some strong second-tier cities. Among them, it is also possible for first-tier cities to optimize suburban purchase restrictions in accordance with district-specific policies;More of the core second-tier cities are expected to lift purchase restrictions altogetherMore low-energy cities may promote the release of housing demand through the issuance of housing purchase subsidies and other means.
Overall, the new home sales market will still face adjustment pressure in 2024. Among them, the sales area of new homes in first-tier cities will continue to increase steadily in 2024The second-tier city market is expected to stabilize at the bottom;The scale of new home sales in third- and fourth-tier cities may continue to decline. The above-mentioned analyst of the China Index Institute said. (Finance Associated Press).