Apple is about to release new products in the fall, including the highly anticipated iPhone 15, but ** has given Apple a lukewarm response. On August 4, Apple's stock price was up 48%, the largest one-day decline since 2023, and the market value shrank by $160 billion in one day, equivalent to nearly 1 yuan2 trillion yuan.
Such a decline makes one wonder what caused the capital market's confidence in Apple to be shakenIn order to understand this problem, it is necessary to analyze it from three levels: data, competitiveness and pattern.
The flash crash of Apple's stock price is directly related to its third-quarter earnings report announced on the same day. According to the financial report, Apple's total net revenue in the third fiscal quarter was 817$9.7 billion, down 14%；Net profit was 198$8.1 billion, an increase of 23%。
These numbers don't look too bad, after all, Apple's profitability is still very strong. But if you look at it from a longitudinal point of view, the problem becomes apparent. In the first three quarters of fiscal 2023, Apple's revenue was 2,937$8.7 billion, compared to revenue of $3,041 in the year-ago quarter$8.2 billion. Among them, the revenue in the first fiscal quarter was 1171$5.4 billion, down 548%；Revenue for the fiscal second quarter was 948$3.6 billion, down 251%。This means that Apple's revenue has declined for three consecutive quarters.
So, why is Apple's revenue declining?Is it because Apple's mobile phones can't be sold?The answer is yes and no. It's just because Apple's mobile phone sales have really declined, and it's not just because it's not just Apple's problem, it's the entire mobile phone industry and the electronics market.
According to Gartner, in the second quarter of 2023, global PC shipments fell by 166% to 59.7 million units. And according to Canalys, in the second quarter of 2023, the global smartphone market fell by 10% year-on-year to 25.8 billion units. Apple shipped 43 million units in the quarter, down 13% year-over-year.
From these data, it can be seen that the global electronics market has entered an overall downturn, and all mobile phone brands are facing growth bottlenecks. In such an environment, Apple's mobile phone sales are also difficult to buck the trend**.
However, there are also some mobile phone brands that have shown some bright spots in such a market. According to Canalys data, in the second quarter of 2023, Samsung and Apple are still firmly in the top two positions in the global market, Xiaomi is in third place with 33.2 million units shipped, OPPO (including OnePlus) is in fourth place with a 10% market share, and the biggest dark horse is Transsion (including the Tecno, Infinix and ITEL brands), which benefited from the recovery of the African market and the expansion of other markets, jumping to the top five for the first time, with an annual growth rate of 22%.
In the Chinese market, Apple's mobile phones are also performing well. In the second quarter of this year, shipments in China's smartphone market fell 5% year-on-year to 64.3 million units. Among the top five manufacturers, only Apple and Huawei have achieved positive growth. In the quarter, iPhone shipments were 10.4 million units, up 5% year-over-year.
This shows that although the purchasing power of global users for iPhone has declined, the Chinese market's love for iPhone is still very unique. As the world's largest consumer electronics category, smartphones have developed to a very mature stage, and no category has yet been able to compete with or replace them.
From another point of view, this also means that the mobile phone market has been difficult to have obvious incremental space due to its high popularity, large market stock and mature product form. Even Apple, an industry leader labeled as innovation, has become more and more Android in its iPhone product iteration path.
In addition to constantly improving the performance of the CPU, the number of cameras, the position and the pixels, it is already difficult to see any revolutionary changes that the new iPhone can make users perceive. In a market that lacks competitors, Apple's pursuit of market size and profit maximization has also begun to become unscrupulous. A new model of "nesting dolls" a year, the core components can be updated without any updates, and the accessories in stock have been maximized, and **can continue**. So even though iPhone sales continue to decline, profits continue to grow.
However, such a market structure is not stable, and it is not conducive to the long-term development of consumers and enterprises. Under this disguised protection mechanism, Apple has picked up Huawei's massive market share in the world, and has begun to get used to "lying to earn", immersed in a state of self-depravity, and it is only a matter of time before it ushers in the peak of performance.
What really worries Apple's investors is that Huawei has risen back on its feet after a difficult struggle. In the second quarter of this year, Huawei's mobile phones tied with Xiaomi for fifth place in market share with 13%, with an increase of 761%。And this achievement is Huawei's bloody way out of the 5G mobile phone camp by relying on 4G mobile phones.
A former absolute leader in 5G is still pursuing survival and development in such a difficult situation and in such an unbearable way. If Huawei's shortcomings are completely solved, what will happen if it can overcome sanctions and obtain a fair market competition environment?Apple's investors are already voting with their feet.