The so-called unpredictable crisis is the "black swan", and the predictable crisis is the "gray rhinoceros". *2024"** candidate Lai Qingde is like a head-on "gray rhinoceros", forming a crisis that China and the United States can predict but cannot avoid. Taiwan media believe that the United States is very worried that Lai Qingde may become a "**2."0”。
Taiwan's "Wind Media" published an article pointing out that since Lai Ching-te's candidacy, the "theory of doubting Lai" in the United States has lingered. The Financial Times has carried two successive warnings of "skeptical theory" in the United States, the first of which was "pragmatic workers" in January this year, which has aroused concern in the United States, and the second article was published in July, because Lai Qingde said that in the future, the Taiwan authorities under his leadership will aim to "enter the White House", which has aroused tension in the United States. The United States has demanded clarification from the Taiwan authorities on relevant remarks, which has set off a storm of "doubtful theories" in the United States. Lai Qingde visited the United States in mid-August in the name of "transit" and was dismissed by the US side. Rosenberg, chairman of the board of directors of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), refused to accept the airport on the grounds that he was attending his family's wedding, that is, he was technically indifferent.
At a press conference before leaving Taiwan in mid-October, Rosenberg bluntly stressed that the United States opposes any aspect of changing the status quo, including "not supporting"** Although this statement reiterates US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statement after his visit to China in June, the US side has the intention of "deterring the 'independence faction' and warning Lai Qingde." The United States hopes that the two sides of the strait will resume dialogue, avoid conflict or even war in the Taiwan Strait, and do not want a disorderly and uncontrollable Taiwan authority to emerge after the 2024 election.
Taiwan media articles believe that at present, Sino-US relations are slowing down, normal high-level dialogues in various fields are resuming, and the United States hopes that the situation can return to the so-called "Sino-US co-management of the Taiwan Strait", and the "suspicion theory" in the Taiwan region has made a comeback at the countdown moment of the election campaign. On November 30, three scholars from a Washington think tank submitted a book to the journal Foreign AffairsGlaser), Jessica Chen Weiss, Thomas J. KeChristensen), who was worried, specifically named Lai Qingde, compared the differences between his line and Tsai Ing-wen's, and specifically proposed to freeze the "** party platform" in exchange for a calm situation in the Taiwan Strait. This is obviously not worrying about Lai Qingde, and he is worried that he will be "second" after he is elected. This also means that the US side believes that it may be too late to wait for Lai Qingde to show his true colors after he takes office.
However, Taiwan media pointed out that under the conditions of no cross-strait communication and dialogue and no reconciliation strategy, Lai Qingde never mentioned the current constitutional regulations and "regulations" in the Taiwan region, and only had ** Bay snacks left in his eyes, but he still braged nonsense and said, "I am elected and the probability of a war between the two sides of the strait is the lowest." "This is only concerned about their own electoral interests and treating the dangerous situation in the Taiwan Strait as child's play. The mainland has characterized Lai Qingde as a "** element", but Lai Qingde is regarded as a horse and east wind.
According to the Taiwan media, Lai Ching-te has always acted arbitrarily and rarely listened to the criticisms of his aides, and his decision-making core circle was originally small, and there were fewer people who were familiar with Taiwan's security and cross-strait affairs, and he lacked foreign affairs and experience. Especially at the end of the election campaign, it entered the blue-green showdown, and the "anti-China card" was played in the reverse knee style. Under Lai Qingde's negligence and connivance, the staff members beside him were like "vultures" who were not afraid of death, constantly provoking the mainland. Lai Qingde claimed to follow Tsai Ing-wen's line, but smuggled into the "two-state theory", and he himself is the biggest variable.
Taiwan media emphasized that Lai Qingde continued to chase the gray rhinoceros that "choked", and sought to use Xiao Meiqin as a deputy as a cover. However, the US side does not buy it, and will continue to put pressure on Lai Qingde, demanding that Lai Qingde renew to the international community a similar commitment of "four noes and one no". As the election campaign enters the countdown, Lai Qingde cannot guarantee that he will not repeat the mistake of Tsai Ing-wen being repaired by the Financial Times in 2012 and turned around.