Before we can see whether Russia is mired in a wartime economy, we must first examine the military landscape and economic situation behind it. The nearly 700-day Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only had a far-reaching impact on the battlefield, but also brought a violent impact on Russia's national economic system. It can be seen from Putin's decision-making that Russia is responding to the economic sanctions imposed externally and the internal military needs with a resolute posture. The adjustment and enrichment of Russia's military forces was a striking feature of this period. The mobilization order, the increase in the number of troops, and the rapid increase in the defense budget are all direct manifestations of the characteristics of the wartime economy. Russia's defense spending will grow sharply in 2024, surpassing social welfare spending for the first time, accounting for 29 percent of the total budget4%, a year-on-year increase of 682%, this change is of epoch-making significance in the allocation of state finances.
The regulation and requirements of the industrial sector by the Russian army and the military department have made military production the top priority of the country's economic operation. From the surge in the number of production equipment to the adjustment of work patterns, all signs are clear that many aspects of the Russian economy have been reoriented to meet the needs of the conflict. Although Russia does not officially say what the state of its economy is, the doubling of defense industry capacity to the jump in production of infantry armored vehicles, tanks and drones is a true reflection of the wartime of the economy. : Before delving into whether Russia is in a wartime economy, we need to interpret the ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the perspective of military strategy.
In order to ensure the morale and combat efficiency of the army, a series of welfare benefits have been given to military personnel, from raising wages to solving housing problems, all of which are aimed at fixing the morale of the army and stabilizing the military strength. At the economic level, Russia's defense budget has increased dramatically, especially as a share of GDP, more than at any time in history. Despite the claim that GDP growth is expected to exceed 3%, it must be recognized that a significant part of this growth is due to the inflation of military spending. The low level of unemployment hides a certain problem in the employment structure, and the attraction of military production to the labor market has led to the flow of a large amount of human resources to the non-social production sector.
Russia's resilience and resilience have been severely tested in the face of ongoing conflict and harsh sanctions. Despite the many challenges, Russia has demonstrated its determination to adapt and resist external pressures through strategic realignment and redistribution of national resources. Looking ahead, Russia will continue to move forward on the path of ensuring stability and stability. The growth of the national defense budget and the expansion of the financial budget reflect Russia's sober understanding and strategic deployment in the current international situation. Russia is making unremitting efforts to realize its national interests and regional stability, whether in building up its military strength, optimizing its economic structure, or in international dialogue and cooperation.
In the long run, the factors affecting energy are complex, including changes in the relationship between supply and demand, technological progress and adjustments in international political and economic policies. As one of the world's largest oil and gas producers, Russia's energy policy formulation and implementation have a profound impact on the global energy market. Energy exports have always played a pivotal role in the structure of Russia's economy. Earnings from oil and gas exports provide a solid support for Russia's finances and are the economic basis for the implementation of its national strategy, including military strategy. Therefore, Russia's ** and planning of the energy market has an important role in guiding the country's economy and military operations.
International oil and gas trends are expected in the next two years, which means a positive impact on Russia's energy export earnings. As a result, the share of energy revenues in Russia's total revenues is expected to increase, providing it with more solid financial support. At the same time, Russia's resilience to international financial sanctions has been demonstrated. Against the backdrop of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, the exchange rate of the ruble has experienced turbulence. However, in Russia**, in the context of changes in the geopolitical situation and the gradual development of the battlefield situation in its favor, the space for Western countries to use sanctions has gradually shrunk, and the ruble exchange rate is expected to stabilize at a certain level, which provides positive expectations for Russia's macroeconomic management.
When considering the international situation, analysts inevitably turn their attention to tensions in Eastern Europe, especially between Russia and the West. In this region, energy and military operations are intertwined into a complex strategic map, and every move can trigger a global change. Russia's actions in the energy market are aimed at consolidating its position as an energy power. By means of energy and planning its economic policy accordingly, Russia seeks to strengthen its financial power in the coming years. This growth expectation is not unrealistic. As the global economy gradually recovers from the pandemic, energy demand is expected to increase, driving ***
These military operations are part of Russia's foreign policy to protect its strategic interests, as well as as a response to international sanctions. Russia has effectively adapted and responded to the financial sanctions of Western countries. The fluctuation of the ruble exchange rate reflects to some extent the market's reaction to the Russian economy and its political actions. Despite the challenges, Russia has demonstrated its ability to maintain and stabilize the ruble exchange rate by adjusting its internal policies and seeking new partners. Russia's optimism ** is not unfounded. Over the past few years, despite the unpredictable international situation, Russia has in many ways demonstrated its ability to adapt and withstand external shocks.
In the global economic and political landscape, Russia's strategic planning is not only crucial for its own development, but also has a significant impact on the international community. Driven by energy and financial policies, Russia is expected to continue to play its role as a great power in the international arena.
Russia's optimism** reminds us that even in the face of major challenges and uncertainties, the country can move forward steadily through thoughtful strategic planning and flexible adjustment of foreign policy. This applies not only to Russia, but also to the general law of all countries striving for development and stability in international relations.
From the perspective of military scientists, Russia's current actions show how a great power can influence the international order through the growth of its combined national power, including military power. Russia's behavior will continue to be the focus of global attention over the next two years, both in the energy market and in the international political arena.
In general, Russia's strategic planning and actions, regardless of the outcome, will have far-reaching implications for the world. As a member of the international community, we expect and believe that all countries, including Russia, can jointly pursue the path of peace and prosperity and create a more harmonious and stable international environment.