Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain producers and one of the largest grain exporters. However, since Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine on February 24 this year, Ukraine's food security and food** have been seriously threatened. Russia's occupation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and two eastern oblasts has cut off Ukraine's land and sea routes, leading to a significant drop in Ukrainian grain exports. This has not only affected Ukraine's economy and people's livelihood, but also affected the world's food ** and **, especially for those poor and food-deficient countries and regions, and caused famine and humanitarian crisis.
To address the issue, Turkey and the United Nations brokered a Black Sea grain export deal between Russia and Ukraine on July 22, the only one since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the heart of the agreement is that Russia allows Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports, while Ukraine allows Russia to export grain and fertilizers. The agreement, which is valid for 120 days, was supposed to expire in November. However, just months after the agreement was implemented, Russia abruptly announced an indefinite suspension of the agreement on October 29. This move by Russia provoked questions and reactions from all sides: why did Russia suspend the grain deal?What is the purpose of this?And what impact does this have on the food situation in Ukraine and globally?This article will analyze the reasons and effects of Russia's suspension of the grain agreement from the following aspects.
1. The fuse and reasons for the suspension.
The immediate trigger for Russia's suspension of the grain deal was an attack on the port of Sevastopol in Crimea on October 29. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, eight drones and seven unmanned boats launched an attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, causing damage to one minesweeper, while the others were destroyed. Russia accused Ukraine of being behind the attack, while Ukraine denied the accusation, saying that Russia had an accident while handling the ammunition. Whatever the truth, this incident has undoubtedly heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and also gave Russia an excuse to suspend the grain deal.
In its statement announcing the suspension of the grain deal, Russia gave the following reasons:
First, due to Ukraine's actions, Russia could not guarantee the safety of civilian ships participating in the grain deal, so it had to suspend the implementation of the agreement.
Second, Ukraine did not comply with the provisions of the agreement and did not provide enough grain and fertilizer to Russia, but exported most of its grain to Europe and Asia, ignoring the needs of food-deficit regions such as Africa.
Third, Russia's grain exports are still subject to sanctions and restrictions imposed by Western countries, resulting in losses in Russia's grain market, while Ukraine has not fought for Russia's rights to lift sanctions.
II. Background and Impact of the Moratorium.
Russia's reasons for suspending the grain deal seem reasonable, but there are many doubts and loopholes. First of all, what they say about the inability to guarantee the safety of ships does not correspond to the facts. In fact, there has not been a single attack involving grain shipments since the grain deal was signed, and both Turkey and the United Nations have provided guarantees and oversight of the grain deal. Secondly, their claim that Ukraine did not comply with the provisions of the agreement is also unfounded. In fact, Ukraine has exported 7.5 million tonnes of grain from Black Sea ports during the agreement, 13% of which went to Africa, and has pledged to export another 2 million tonnes of grain to Africa before the agreement expires. Again, they are not entirely correct when they say that Russian grain exports are subject to sanctions and restrictions. In fact, Russia's grain exports were not substantially affected, but were subjected to market competition and fluctuations. Russia produces 100 million tonnes of wheat this year, a quarter of the world's total, and has 54 grain exporters, including those in Europe, Asia and Africa.
Therefore, the real reason for Russia's suspension of the grain deal may not be due to food security and humanitarian considerations, but to political and strategic motives. Russia's military operation in Ukraine has been strongly condemned and sanctioned by the international community. Russia's occupation of Crimea and the Donbas region has also been met with non-recognition and opposition from Ukraine and Western countries. If Russia continues to implement the grain deal, it will be equivalent to admitting its aggression in Ukraine and giving up control of Crimea and the Donbas region. This is a huge loss for Russia's national interests and reputation. So why is Russia making such a sacrifice?There are two possible reasons:
The first is to negotiate with the West and Ukraine to find a peaceful solution to the conflict. Russia has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate in recent years, but has not received a positive response from the West and Ukraine. Russia may want to pass the suspension of the grain association.