**: The Paper.
A-shares continued to test the bottom on Monday.
On December 18, the three major A-share indexes were all **, of which the Shanghai Composite Index was in the negative for four consecutive years, the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by more than 1%, and the ChiNext Index fell by more than 1%.5%。
For the readjustment of the market, market participants believe that it is mainly due to three factors: first, the market liquidity is tight near the end of the year, second, the sentiment is relatively sluggish, and third, the profit-taking of small-cap theme stocks.
On Monday (December 18), the full-day trading volume of A-shares further shrank, reflecting the increasing pressure on market liquidity towards the end of the year, and on the other hand, the outflow of funds on the floor reflected the relative lack of market confidence. The chief investment consultant of a brokerage firm in Shanghai said to the surging news reporter.
It is worth mentioning that northbound funds returned against the market on December 18, with a total net inflow of 272.7 billion yuan.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the aforementioned chief investment consultant believes that the return of northbound funds shows that there are still varieties worth trading in the A** field, and there are not many stop-loss orders below 3000 points, and the current trading volume is also very small.
From a technical point of view, if it falls below 2923 points next, the daily MACD indicator will diverge from the bottom, and there is a technical requirement;If it does not break 2923 points, the technical indicators are seriously oversold, and there are also technical requirements. Therefore, regardless of whether the 2923 points are broken or not, the New Year's Eve ** still exists. Zhao Wei, an analyst at Founder, said in a research report on December 18.
It is worth mentioning that the above-mentioned chief investment adviser believes that in the short term, investors can pay proper attention to the shipping sector, which has upward momentum due to overseas holidays and geopolitical influences.
Keep bottoming out. As of December 18**, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4% at 29308 o'clock;The STAR 50 Index fell 081% at 84068 points;The Shenzhen Component Index fell 113% at 927939 o'clock;The GEM index fell 154% at 1820 points.
On the disk, the market has a low money-making effect, and the characteristics are prominent. On the one hand, wind statistics show that there are only more than 860 stocks in the two cities and the Beijing Stock Exchange, and nearly 4,400 stocks in the Beijing Stock Exchange
On the other hand, under the first-level industry classification of Shenwan, the only sectors that achieved ** on Monday (December 18) were transportation, household appliances, banks, coal and food and beverages, and the increase was 05% near or below. There are as many as 19 sectors that fell by more than 1%, including power equipment, social services, media, national defense and military industries, all of which fell by more than 2%.
The main characteristics of Monday's market are the shrinking amount of energy, the structural differentiation is large, the market sentiment is sluggish, the money-making effect is reduced, and the money-losing effect is increasing. Zhao Wei pointed out.
As for the market adjustment, analysts said that it was mainly due to liquidity, sentiment and profit-taking on the small-cap theme.
In terms of liquidity, Zhao Wei said that the more the end of the year, the greater the pressure on market liquidity. On the one hand, it is the local government that has issued a large number of special bonds due to chemical bonds, which occupies a large amount of funds, and the scale of bond issuance will be larger at the end of the year. On the other hand, the pressure on the seasonal withdrawal of funds at the end of the year has increased, and the pressure on market liquidity has increased unabated, which is the reason for the increase in the upward slope of the funding rate since December.
On Monday (December 18), the market performance was blue-chip stocks trying their best to protect the market, and the small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks weakened sharply, and the changes in the market structure were closely related to the greater pressure on the capital at the end of the year, which also affected market confidence to a certain extent. Zhao Wei pointed out.
On the emotional side, the above-mentioned chief investment adviser said that although some heavyweight stocks in the market performed well on Monday (December 18), the index still reached 2930 points, indicating that there is no particularly obvious hot spot in the market, and there has been a certain degree of shrinkage in transactions.
Wind data shows that from December to the present, the turnover has continued to decline, especially in recent trading days, and the volume has shrunk significantly.
On the disk, another reason for the market to continue to adjust is the decline of the hot spots in the early stage, which can be seen that small-cap stocks have taken profits, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks have weakened significantly, resulting in a reduction in the market's money-making effect. In addition, another major reason for the adjustment of the GEM is the relatively significant adjustment of the heavyweight stocks in the sector. The aforementioned chief investment adviser said.
There are strong technical requirements.
How will the market behave towards the end of the year amid continued weakness?
Zhao Wei pointed out that from a technical point of view, on Monday (December 18), after the low opening, the intraday once rushed higher, and then went all the way down, with the second low, and showed a trend of price decline and volume contraction.
However, the index deviates far from the 5-day line, technically oversold, and the ** combination is 'compass', *after the intraday retreat, it is technically expected to go out of the ** trend. Zhao Wei further pointed out, "The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 5-minute MACD indicator has a continuous bottom divergence, the 15-minute MACD indicator and the SKD indicator golden cross, **intraday repeatedly, the 60-minute MACD indicator has a continuous bottom divergence, the 60-minute SKD indicator is at the bottom, the intraday space for falling back is limited, and the 60-minute combination has a wedge-shaped bottom trend, and there are also ** requirements technically. ”
Zhao Wei emphasized that on the whole, there is still **pressure in the intraday. However, if a new low of 2923 points, the daily MACD indicator will diverge from the bottom, and there is a strong technical requirementIf it does not break 2923 points, the technical indicators are seriously oversold, and there are also technical requirements. Therefore, regardless of whether the height of the project can fall below 2923 points, there is a strong requirement that the height of the project is proportional to the amount of energy.
In terms of liquidity, the chief investment adviser of the above-mentioned brokerage said that all parties in the market seem to be waiting for the entry of incremental funds, but due to the continuous expansion of the volume of A-shares, the market needs more thrust. At the same time, once the market turns around, the duration will be very considerable.
It is worth mentioning that northbound funds gradually entered the market in the afternoon, with a net **27 throughout the day2.7 billion yuan. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Connect net **14700 million yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect net **125.7 billion yuan.
CATL (300750), Industrial Fortune Union (601138), and Wanhua Chemical (600309) respectively won a net **46.1 billion yuan, 2200 million yuan, 18.2 billion yuan. ZTE (000063) had the largest net selling volume with an amount of 17.6 billion yuan.
With the gradual weakening of the company's year-end withdrawal of funds, coupled with the arrival of the seasonal liquidity easing time window at the beginning of next year, the funding rate has reached its peak, and the funding rate will fall and the liquidity will improve significantly It will be a high probability event, which is expected to reduce the liquidity pressure of the A** field and help improve market risk appetite. At the same time, in order to cope with increasing liquidity pressure, the central bank does not rule out the possibility of another RRR cut. Zhao Wei said.
In addition, market participants pointed out that in the context of the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the expectation of interest rate cuts will prompt the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to continue to fall, providing a good external environment for the further release of China's policy.
The domestic and foreign policy environment is expected to alleviate the medium-term liquidity pressure of the market, the decline of ** and the expectation of spring**, which is expected to attract over-the-counter funds to enter the market in advance, and the foundation of A-share New Year's Eve ** still exists. Zhao Wei said.