After India surpassed the United Kingdom to become the fifth largest economy, and India's population surpassed China to become the world's first, it is all about itThe future economic landscapeThe lively discussion,Every time, I want to write an article on the ** chain from the perspective of economics, but I have never started to write。And recently Lin Xueping's new book ".The battle for strength from enterprises to countries: ** chain offensive and defensive battlespublished in a group, there are also views on the global ** chain. Take this opportunity to say a little bitEconomics** chain from the point of view
**Chain management is in the transition layer between micro and meso economically
Whether it is the interruption of the ** chain caused by the new crown epidemic, or the ** chain fluctuation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or the decoupling and disconnection caused by the friction between China and the United States, it is all fromLocalaffectsGlobal, because of the overall impact, it has attracted the attention of the state.
But I still think that chain management should essentially belong to slavesA transition layer from microscopic to meso
Let's start with a few definitions of economics:
MacroeconomicsIt is a discipline in Western economics that studies macroeconomic phenomena such as a country's economic aggregate, aggregate demand and aggregate supply, total national income and composition, money and finance, population and employment, factors and endowments, economic cycle and economic growth, economic expectations and economic policies, and international economy and international economy.
Microeconomics: A discipline that mainly analyzes a single economic unit (a single producer, a single consumer, and a single market economic activity) as the research object.
MesoeconomicsIt is an emerging discipline between microeconomics and macroeconomics, which refers to a theory that takes the economic activities of a certain sector, a certain group or a certain region as the research object.
EconomicsIt is a discipline that studies various economic activities and corresponding economic relations and the laws of operation and development of human society at various stages of development. The development of the study of the laws of economics is mainUnfold with the balance of supply and demandNo matter which dimension of economics, the core is to achieve it efficientlyBalance between supply and demandand through the coping strategy of supply and demand deviation, find economic laws to promote economic development.
Macroeconomic research is:The law of the balance between aggregate demand and aggregate supply；Microeconomics isStudy the law of supply and demand balance at the business level；Mesoeconomic researchIt is the law of supply and demand balance in a certain field, or group or region
* Chain is essentially a new form of manufacturing industry that has gradually evolved from the traditional single factory manufacturing model to improve efficiency with the help of market division of labor to a certain stage of development. Mainly with leading enterprises as the chain master, the rules of industrial synergy are formulated, so as to form a multi-level value chain
For economics, the automotive industry is one of the most representative industriesAutomotive OEMsfor the faucet,Through the first-chain plan and the first-class business collaboration, the first-chain ecology with a certain main engine factory as the main chain has been built
In the automobile industry, there are many automobile brand enterprises, and each brand has established its own set of first-class chain system. If the economic activities of a certain group are taken as the research object, the first-chain ecology of a certain automobile group can be used as a meso-economic study。However, the economic activities of a certain group are dominated by the strategy of leading enterprises [single enterprise], so I think that the chain is a transitional state of economic form from micro to meso.
Taking the automobile industry as a whole as a research subject is a dimension of mesoeconomy, and the study of this dimension is more called in ChinaIndustrial chain
Personally, I classify the industrial chain into the category of meso-economy, and define the ** chain as the transition from micro to meso.
For the industrial chain, it is a domestic concept, while the business network is more commonly used abroad.
Recently Europe has been pushingCatena-X is the most typical business networkby creating an open and collaborative data ecosystem, we aim to build aAn open and scalable network for the automotive industryin order to complete the secure and standardized exchange of information and data between various enterprises across industriesEstablish end-to-end data links throughout the automotive value chainCatena-X willThe cloud-based network is open to all companies in the German and European automotive industry and to global partners
Catena-X: I think it's an automotive industry chain that Europe is building. And Industry 4The 0 platform is also facilitating manufacturing-xThat is, the industrial chain of all walks of life
The essence of chain battles is the battle of rules
The theme of Lin Xueping's new book is:Chain offensive and defensive battles, the following is an analysis of what the chain contention is.
From an economic point of view, the management of the first chain is to promote the development of the economy by improving the management efficiency of the first chain.
If fromThe world as a whole, as a stakeholderBuilding an open and integrated industrial ecosystem is the most valuable for improving global efficiency. However, the global ecology is composed of multiple countries, each country has different interests, and the laws of each country are different, in order to maximize its own interests in the global value chain, each country formulates its own rules under the global rules, which brings complexity to the global industrial ecology.
At present, the rules of the global industrial ecology are formulated by developed countries, and in the process of gradual evolution, the rules are dominated by developed countries. The rules are beneficial to the developed countries, and the leading position of the economy is maintained through the ideas of marketization, free economy, and even finance.
As a developing country, China has entered the global ecologyThe early days are at a disadvantage。Mainly involved in the lower end of the value chain, with low profit margins. For example, in the same manufacturing industry, China's manufacturing link is the bottom end of the smile curveHowever, Japan's Musashi curve is not low, and the profit margin in the manufacturing link is not low.
Even in the face of unfavorable situations, the hard-working Chinese have gradually grown into the largest economy with the help of the bottom end of the manufacturing industry. After joining the WTO, under the economic rules dominated by developed countries,Rational use of rules, and gradually transition to the high-end of the manufacturing industry
According to the "Currency Wars", developed countries have formulated it for developing countriesNew rules, rules related to the environment. China has also made reasonable use of the rules of developed countries to enrich China's industrial chain.
In 2009, developed countries formulated the "Copenhagen AccordThis is an agreement that restricts the development of developing countries, and China has not signed it. Officially and rationally take advantage of this time difference:Developed countries have set environmental constraints on their own industrial development, leading to the large-scale transfer of many carbon-emitting industries to China. During this period, China ranked first in the world in many sub-sectors with high carbon emissions. After the industry entered China, China committed to the dual carbon goal in 2020, opening the road of high-quality development and new industrialization.
For the first-chain offensive and defensive war, China has made reasonable use of the rules formulated by developed countries to promote the development of many industries in China (steel, chemicals, building materials).
At the same time, to adapt to climate rules, China has developed new energy vehicles, new energy batteries, photovoltaics and other internationally competitive rules.
China has made perfect use of the rules of developed countries and achieved a breakthrough in the industrial chain
So a certain country that advocates freedom and marketization, startsIncrease the first barrier and start to decouple and break the chain。Barriers that are essentially made by the rules are breached. We hope to maintain a dominant position in the field where the existing technology is leading.
In this context, China has also begun to woo new partners and establish its own rules. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS alliance have begunThe export of Chinese rules
So the final victory of the chain offensive and defensive battle,It depends on which rule will be dominant in the future
One of the rules will be very interesting, the rules of the Paris Agreement on climate, I think in the future will be designated by developed countries to limit the development of developing countries [especially for China], but China has made perfect use of this rule to develop industrial advantages in the field of new energy, and in the future, China will use the rules of the Paris Agreement to promote China's industrial development (such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics).
Establish industrial advantages based on scale
The development logic of China's ** chain is mainly as follows:Cultivate and improve their own industries with the help of the big market;After the industry is perfected, it will occupy the international market by taking advantage of the cost advantage brought by the scale effect
According to this logic, in the 80s of the last century, China's textile and garment industry achieved an upgrade from a shortage to occupy the international marketFrom the 90s of the last century to the beginning of this century, China's home appliance industry has achieved a breakthrough from backwardness to leadershipAt the beginning of this century, high-tech [computers, and small household appliances] occupied the international market;Infrastructure construction in the 10s of the century.
The most interesting is the recent discussion about the route of new energy vehicles.
According to the research of many experts, hydrogen energy is the best energy source for cars. To this end, Japan has set up technical barriers to hydrogen energy by using leading technologies to seize the new energy track.
In the early days, China subsidized the electric vehicle track through policies, because China and the United States have large markets, and the new energy direction of automobiles is determined by the large marketElectric vehiclesAt the same time, it has also helped China seize a new track in the field of new energy electric vehicles
Therefore, the big market has helped China choose the right track. 【Whether China chose the right track, or whether electric vehicles became the track because of China's choice, will not be discussed here】。The big market also helps China improve its industry and establish its industrial advantages.
One thing I would like to say here is that when discussing India's future prospects, we should not only look at India's big market, but also see whether India can build up its industrial advantages with the help of its big market. After 40 years of reform and opening up, China's industrial advantages are not only because of China's large market. The most important thing is the cost advantage of Made in China, as well as the stability and cost of infrastructure [including transportation, water supply, and power supply] established to support Made in China.
**Chain stability requires security
The gentleman is not guilty, and he is in it.
When the industrial chain was transferred to China, China's economy continued to growIt's starting to get rich
Poor people don't need bodyguards, whileThe rich need bodyguards
In the same way, countries that are rich but not strong are the most prone to wars - if there was no oil in the Middle East, would Iran, Iraq, Syria and other countries have wars so often?
Many countries in the Middle East are driven by a mismatch between resources and the ability to conserve them.
Therefore, in the competition of the first chain, the countries that gain advantages must also be able to protect their own industrial chains in the future.
Therefore, to discuss the ** chain, it must be discussedSafety。Security here includes:
1. The sovereignty and security of the country [no matter how developed the industry is, once there is a war, there will be none];
2. The country's basic chain securityFor example, food, oil, steel and other necessities for human survival are safe。I used to be an expert in the field of industrial Internet of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and after years of observation, it is difficult for the private sector to succeed when it comes to the most advanced industrial chain. For example, the food industry chain, the steel industry chain, and the oil industry chain. The successful search for steel in the early years has now declined, and it is Ouyeel Yunshang that replaces the search for steel network. Similarly, the once relatively successful oil search network has long been in difficulty.
3. Information security. **After the Deng incident, China attaches great importance to information security, and after the Russia-Ukraine war, many software companies have withdrawn from Russia, which has prompted China to increase its support for the field of information security.
For many people who are optimistic about India, you can also think about whether India can protect its economy after it becomes rich.
The most typical example is Japan, which used to wrestle with the United States economically, but it is a pity that Japan's security is protected by the United States, and Japan must abide by the rules of the United States, and then Japan loses decades of development opportunities.