U.S. TreasuriesThe popularity of purchases is causing worldwideInvestmentsThe attention of the market. withFederal Reservepolicy shift as wellInvestmentsThe expected change in U.S. Treasury yieldsU.S. TreasuriesofLiquidityThe crisis seems to have been resolved to some extent. This change is likely to have an impact on the worldBond marketas well as the economies of countries andMonetary policyMake a big impact.
From March 2022, with:Federal ReserveForced to raise interest rates in succession to combat inflationary pressures,U.S. TreasuriesThe yield has been on an upward trend, causing its *** holders to face large losses. Not only China, but also countries around the world have sold offU.S. Treasuries, leading to its marketLiquidityInsufficient. However, with the US inflation data for October beating expectations, and the November and December months emergedFederal ReservePolicy shift is expected,U.S. TreasuriesYields are starting to fall sharply. This change sparked the United StatesInvestmentsAgencies are buying booms, they think it's time to buyU.S. TreasuriesWhat is the logic behind the best timing?
First, we need to understandU.S. TreasuriesThe fundamentals of the market. The higher the yield, the more it meansTreasury bonds**Decline. Therefore,InvestmentsIt is usually based on the pairFederal ReserveJudgment of future policy direction for asset layout and management. According to market expectations, 2024 will be the United StatesRecessionof the year, thenFederal Reservewill be forcedCut interest ratesto support the economy, stimulated by releasing waterEconomic growth。This kindCut interest ratesWill be rightU.S. TreasuriesYields make a difference, so buy nowU.S. TreasuriesIt is possible to lock in higher yields and hedge ahead of next yearCut interest ratesAnticipate.
According to the calculations of JPMorgan Chase in the United States, if there is no black swan event, the United States will be next yearInflation rateIt will fall significantly back to around 2%. ExpectedFederal Reservewill pass 3-5 timesCut interest ratesThe federal ** interest rate will be increased from the current 525%-5.5% to 3 by the end of next year5%-4%, ieCut interest rates100 bps to 150 bps. That means next yearU.S. TreasuriesYields are expected to fall, ** buy nowU.S. TreasuriesA relatively high yield can be obtained.
Secondly, thoughU.S. TreasuriesThe market existsLiquidityproblems, but compared to the assets of other countriesU.S. TreasuriesStill considered one of the safest assets in the world. Buying U.S. bonds can provide a relatively high level of security.
However, it is important to note thatFederal ReserveThere may be some policy adjustmentsVolatilityFederal ReserveChairmanPowelland other Fed chairs' remarks often change to the marketCut interest ratesmay be affected. In addition, the market expectsCut interest ratesIt does not mean that inflation has fallen below the target level. Federal ReserveHawkish measures are likely to be taken to control inflation, which may be positiveU.S. TreasuriesYields have an impact.
In short, for nowU.S. TreasuriesmarketLiquidityThe crisis has eased somewhat, but the $34 trillion debt problem facing the United States remains. Just buyU.S. TreasuriesHigher yields and security guarantees can be obtained, but for the long termTreasury bondsCaution is still needed. Federal ReserveThe policy direction and economic development trend will continue to influenceU.S. TreasuriesWhere the market is headed.