Following industry organization TrendForce**, the annual shipments of the global color TV market this year (2023) may be "lost" After 200 million units, Ovirivo, another data agency in the industry, also issued a document saying that due to the slow recovery of the global economy in 2023, under the influence of multiple rounds of interest rate hikes by the US dollar and the European Central Bank, inflation in Europe and the United States has eased but is still higher than the target value, China's consumer confidence has not yet recovered, and although emerging markets have grown, the driving force is limited, etc., global TV shipments in 2023 are expected to be less than 200 million units, the lowest level since 2010.
200 million units,Create a sales volume in the past ten years"New low",Behind these two figures, it reflects that the current global color TV market has entered"Sales trough"The critical stage。
However,2023After the color TV industry fell to the "bottom",It is expected to rise"slightly" in 2024。 Because,2024year,It's the European Cup、Olympic year,These sports hotspots may inject new vitality into the consumption of the global color TV market。 In addition, global inflation is expected to continue to ease in 2024, and consumer purchasing power is expected to recover.
To this end,Ovirivo analysis believes,The global color TV industry will experience 2022-2023After the demand contraction,Or will usher in a market demand"**2024Global TV shipments will increase slightly year-on-year1.5%, and the total number of shipments is expected to return to more than 200 million units.
Regional market analysis: developed markets such as North America and Europe will increase slightly, and the Chinese market is "uncertain".
In the past two years, developed markets in Europe and the United States,Due to the epidemic"Home economy"Market overdraft、The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and high inflation"Multiple factors"Superposition,The demand for color TVs has shrunk。
However, in 2024, because of the expectation of high inflation easing and sports events, color TVs in developed countries and regions such as North America and Europe may have a "warming" atmosphere. In addition, emerging markets such as Asia-Pacific and Latin America are also expected to grow.
However, next year, due to the lack of consumer confidence in the Chinese market, the performance of the real estate industry related to the strong demand for TV is still sluggish, and TV products are still facing the double squeeze of content channels and smart hardware, or will still encounter huge market shipment pressure. Aowei believes that domestic color TV shipments will still decline year-on-year in 2024.
From the perspective of the global regional market,Next year(2024year)The overall situation is expected to show"Warming"Weather,Especially in overseas developed markets or will take the lead in bringing"Recovery",This shows that,2024In 2024, the focus of domestic color TV manufacturers may be"Overseas market"Layout more。
Product and technology trends: 80+ and miniLED TVs are expected to continue to be "popular".
In terms of product and technology dimension focus,Aowei analysis believes,2024The biggest attraction of the color TV industry is still large-size and miniLED TV。
In 2023, the global shipment scale of 80+ super-sized TVs is expected to reach 45M,In 2024, the panel factory will increase significantly in 80+ super-large size panels**, as well as the high premium of super-large size, and the terminal still has room for price reduction, and the shipment scale of 80+ super-large size TV in 2024 is expected to be 12m growth.
Due to the active promotion of panel manufacturers and brand manufacturers, as well as consumers' preference for large-size TVs, the average size of global TV shipments is expected to reach 53 inches in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1 inch, and the progress of large-size TV in the Chinese market will be far ahead.
And on another "big hit" point, miniLED TVs, next year (2024) will continue to usher in growth. As miniLED TVs are effectively "aggressive" in various dimensions such as brand participation, technology maturity, and cost sinking, it may continue to open a "bullish" mode in the global market in 2024.
Brand pattern:Color TV faucets tend to be conservative in 2024The goal is to be more conservative,The top three in the industry"Internal competition" will be more intense
As the scale of global TV shipments in 2023 will encounter a new low. This has also led industry leaders to become "conservative" and "cautious" about their "expectations" for 2024. In 2024, the shipment targets of major TV brands have been released one after another, compared with previous years, the overall shipping targets of brand owners are conservative, and the TV market has shifted from scale competition to value competition.
Aowei's analysis believes that in 2024, in the first camp (annual shipments of more than 10 million years), only Hisense and TCL will remain aggressive in their goals, while Korean and Japanese brands are not optimistic about next year's market expectations and have conservative goals. Under the pressure of Chinese brands, it is difficult to grow the scale of shipments, and the desire for profitability is more urgent.
Against the backdrop of such a situation. Samsung"Boss"The status will still be stable,But it may be with Hisense、TCLThe gap between the two giants of Chinese color TVs will continue to "close"。 In addition,The battle between Hisense and TCL "second internally" will also be more intense and stalemate.
At the same time, Aowei also believes that in 2024, under the background that the overall industry is still low and the changes are only slightly increasing, combined with the increasing concentration of head brands, the expansion of mid-waist brands may be more difficult. Next year,The trend of the strong in the color TV market will be further strengthened。
Postscript Comments:In 2024, the global market recovery of color TVs still depends mainly on the global macroeconomic pattern. In particular, the policy trend of the US dollar as a global currency. The consensus within color TV enterprises,More opportunities for alternative innovation of large-size and high-end products,Take the mid-to-high-end、New technology as the main focus,Instead of aiming at"Quantity and energy"Change of quantity。 Such a background is naturally conducive to the head brand to continue to consolidate the fundamentals, and at the same time bring more pressure to the middle and rear brands.