In the face of the Houthis in the Red Sea, the United States has already lost whether it fights or not, loses face and loses, and there is no pants left to lose. Whether the Houthis win or lose, they have already won, won the face and the inside, and won a lot of money.
The Houthis have launched strikes in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait against ships that do not heed dissuasion to Israel, while the United States has not taken strong force measures or effective solutions to the safety of navigation, and the major shipping giants have halted their routes through the Red Sea. It not only has a negative impact on the already difficult global economy, has an impact on the cohesion of the US-led NATO military alliance, but also poses a major challenge to US global hegemony. In particular, it has a huge impact on the Arab countries in the Middle East, which have long been powerless in the face of military pressure from the United States and Israel. The current Houthis are the butterflies that have caused the "butterfly effect". The hegemony of the American empire in the Middle East is likely to collapse first, and the Houthis will be the last straw that crushes the global hegemony of the American empire.
We have seen that the United States has adopted a very restrained policy in the face of the Houthis. Why is it said that the United States is very restrained this time?Everyone knows that the consistent style of US imperialism is: I will hit anyone who does not like the eye. Some time ago, the Houthis had already launched suicide drones at the US ** ship, and the Americans only said that the drones were all shot down and did not cause damage;The Houthis also fired missiles and "scooters" suicide drones at Israel, and neither the United States nor Israel retaliated against the Houthis. The United States has truly done it: it will not fight back.
** said: "The US imperialists are arrogant, and where they can be unreasonable, they must be unreasonable. If you make a little sense, you have to do it. "The Americans are not only "polite" in the face of the Houthis now, they are simply extremely rational and restrained, so why is it so rational and restrained?
First of all, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is not only an important strategic location, but more importantly, a special geographical environment
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait connects the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean, and is a necessary place for maritime communication from the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is navigable about 1With 70,000 vessels, or about 10% of the world's largest volume, it is one of the busiest sea lanes in the world.
The strait is about 26-32 kilometers wide and 150 meters deep on average, and there are a number of volcanic islands scattered among them, with the largest of the 13 square kilometers, the gateway to the southern end of the Red Sea, and an airport in the northern part of the island. The island divides the strait into small and large gorges. The small gorge is about 3 percent wide on the Asian sideAt 2 km and 30 m deep, it is the main shipping lane, near the eastern half of Asia, also known as the "Strait of Iskander" (meaning the Strait of Alexandria). The Great Gorge is about 25 times wide on the African side95 kilometers, the depth of the water is 333 meters, close to the western half of Africa is also known as the "Jack Strait", because there are many reefs and shoals in the strait, the wind is strong, the navigation ability is very poor, it brings great danger and difficulties to the ancient sailing ships, so that the travelers who come and go can not help but cry in fear, so the Arabic means "the door of tears".
Due to the special hydrological environment, the small gorge near the Yemeni side is the main waterway, and the large gorge has a poor ability to pass through. For the Houthis, which have a large number of anti-ship missiles and a large number of drones, the blockade is only 3The 2 km wide strait is easy to handle. This strait has formed a trend where one man is closed and ten thousand people cannot be opened!
Second, the Houthis hold high the banner of human rights and morality and occupy the moral high ground.
The Houthis have openly stated that as long as Israel ceases fire and averts a humanitarian crisis in Palestine, the Houthis will stop attacking Israeli-linked merchant ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
As we all know, safeguarding human rights and avoiding humanitarian crises has always been the moral banner held high by the United States and the West when intervening in the internal affairs of other countries, and now this script has been reversed: they have turned a blind eye to the humanitarian crisis and human rights crisis that are emerging in the Palestinian areas, and not only turned a blind eye, but also aided the evil, and provided Israel with a large number of advanced equipment to the Palestinian people.
At this moment, the Houthis are famous for holding high this banner, standing on the moral high ground, intercepting and attacking Israeli ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb StraitThis has formed a great irony for the United States and the West, and has slapped the United States and the West in the face.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced on December 20 local time that he would block and not allow Israel-based ZIM ships to berth at any Malaysian port, and ordered the country's Ministry of Transportation to immediately implement this permanent ban. Malaysia** has also decided to ban Israeli-flagged vessels from docking and to prohibit any vessel heading to Israel from loading in Malaysian ports, both of which are also effective immediately.
Malaysia was the first country to officially announce a ban on berthing for Israeli shipping companies, with more countries likely to follow. This is all a blow to Israel's economy and ability to sustain its operations.
Third, the United States is very worried that the war against the Houthis will spill out of control, leading to the rebellion of the people.
The backer behind the Houthis in Yemen is Iran. Iran and the United States have been engaged in the Middle East for decades and have a lot of experience. Unlike other Arab countries, Iran has achieved a certain degree of industrialization under the predicament of decades of blockade and siege by the United States, and has built an independent military-industrial system, capable of mass-producing long-range rocket artillery systems, various types of short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and especially the so-called "air motorcycle" Deshahid-136 suicide drone is world-renowned. Therefore, if the U.S. fleet really doubles down on the damage or sinking of anti-ship ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis, the myth of the invincible U.S. navy will be shattered.
In the Middle East, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as the core, it has a large number of peripheral organizations in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, and its influence is very huge. Since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US military bases and even embassies in various parts of the Middle East have been frequently attacked in various ways, causing the US military untold suffering. As long as the United States mobilizes the Houthis, all US military bases and diplomatic institutions in the Middle East, and even American companies, may be targeted.
It's still a small thing, and the next thing is even trickier.
First of all, the war in the Middle East is going all out, and the oil ** that the United States is suppressing with all its might will inevitably skyrocket, and the impact on the global economy can exceed the "oil crisis" in the seventies of the last century.
The second point is even more fatal, which will deal a heavy blow to Europe's already recessionary economy. In the past two years, Europe has adopted the strategy of losing 1,000 to kill 500 enemies, blockading and sanctioning Russia, causing the entire European economy to be in a state of negative growth, high inflation, and strike movements have been surging in the past two years. If there is another fight in the Red Sea region now, not to mention economic losses, the sudden surge in energy ** will directly kill European countries. Even if there is no war, the ** between Europe and Asia will be greatly affected, and they will bypass the Cape of Good Hope in Africa for safety. Eurasia** is not only because the distance transported has increased by nearly 10,000 kilometers, but the travel time has increased by 15 to 20 days, and the freight cost has increased by more than 30%. So, how is it possible for European countries to collectively harm themselves again for the sake of an Israel?
Third, the most important ally of the United States in world hegemony is NATO, and if NATO countries are in such a predicament, they will have broken one of the thighs of the United States. The economic and military assistance of European countries to Ukraine will be even more stretched, or even directly abandon Ukraine. Russia will be even more assertive in Europe. In this way, the essence of the United States and the West as a foreign power and a middle-class cadre will be exposed to the world. Will there be a global de-dollarization wave, and then there will be a global war against US hegemony by force?
Fourth, the so-called "escort alliance" of the United States is unpopular, with heavy thunder and little rain.
On December 18, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced during a visit to the Middle East that a multinational naval force would be formed to protect merchant ships sailing in the Red Sea.
But judging by recent statements by close US allies, the plan is likely to be stillborn.
The French Ministry of Defense said that France will support operations to ensure freedom of navigation in and around the Red Sea, but that the French ** ship will continue to be under French command. Italy's defense ministry said that at the specific request of Italian shipowners, the country's navy will send a frigate called "Virginia Fasan" to the Red Sea, which has nothing to do with the US-led "Prosperity Guardian" alliance.
Qatar's Al Jazeera also noted on the 20th that none of the countries bordering the Red Sea (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Eritrea and Israel) have joined the US-led "Guardian of Prosperity" alliance.
On the 21st, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, the closest ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, said that Australia would not send ** or aircraft to the Red Sea.
As the saying goes, whoever wins the hearts of the people wins the world. After more than 20 years of perverse behavior, the United States has lost the glorious image of "raising its arms and shouting, and the responders gather" around 2000 and "eating pot pulp to welcome the king's teacher"!
To sum up, the current United States is "a dog bites a hedgehog and has nowhere to put its mouth" in the face of the Houthis, which do not wear shoes.
To fight or not to fight is a dilemma, and to fight is the next step. Why is it a dilemma?As far as the United States is concerned, the Houthis are not unable to fight, it is not that they cannot be defeated, and it is not that they cannot be fought, but after they are fought. The consequences and whether they can be controlled. The Americans are now completely unsure, and the most fearful thing is that the situation is completely out of control. Once the situation gets out of control, it will be the complete end of US hegemony, and it is likely that it will be completely driven out of the Middle East, and it can only survive on the American continent, returning to the starting point of 100 years ago.
But the Houthis are now blocking ships bound for Israel, and the United States cannot ignore it, if it does not care what is the authority and face of the world bossEven a bunch of people in slippers can't be suppressed, how can they suppress the Middle East, how can they cover Israel?If the blockade imposed by the Houthis against Israel is allowed to continue, Israel's economy will inevitably suffer a heavy blow, and Israel will soon lose its ability to fight against the Palestinians.
Let's see how the United States breaks through the current dilemma of "self-solving" for the sake of the unbreakable US-Israel alliance. I am afraid that it "is too clever in its calculations and has mistaken Qingqing's life": the formation of a joint escort fleet in the Red Sea is to dig a grave for its own hegemony.