In the past year, there have been a lot of "more and more blows" in the world, and some even threatened that Vietnam would replace China's status as the "world's factory".
However, a report by Nikkei Chinese entitled "Vietnam's "Export Country" Has Dead Spots" completely punctured Vietnam's "prosperity bubble" with a series of data. The article mentioned that since the first quarter of this year, Vietnam's low-end orders such as textiles and footwear have dropped by 80%, and the shipments of high-end industries such as electronic products have also shrunk290,000 businesses closed and 640,000 workers were laid off.
The sudden collapse of the manufacturing sector directly dragged down Vietnam's GDP in the first quarter (3.).32%) compared to the fourth quarter of last year (5.).92%), which is almost half. The vigorous claim to replace Vietnam, which is made in China, did not rush to eat, why did his bowl break first?
Vietnam, which is "full of gold", once fell out of favor
Back to a year ago, also in May, there was a labor shortage in Vietnam, and phenomena such as "10 million VND can't recruit a skilled worker" frequently appeared on the cover of Vietnamese media news.
At that time, Vietnam becameThe foothold of many multinational companies during the Sino-US friction。Not only Adi and other major clothing and shoe manufacturers chose to produce more than that, but also announced that they would withdraw from China and run away from Vietnam. Japan's Toshiba, South Korea's Samsung Electronics and other leading chip companies have moved their production capacity from China to Vietnam. In the six months that followed, a large number of multinational state-owned enterprises that had been stationed in China poured into Vietnam.
The sudden "favor" of the capital giants made Vietnam, which has no technical foundation, have the advantage of exporting electronic products overnight, which directly drives Vietnam's economic growth. In 2022, Vietnam achieved a ** surplus of US$12.4 billion, a full triple the surplus of US$4 billion in '21. Its GDP also increased to 5 in the fourth quarter92%, catching up with Shenzhen, China.
Coincidentally, this series of growth coincided with the backlog of a large number of empty foreign trade containers in China's ports due to the pandemic, so many international analysts at that time believed that Vietnam would soon take over the status of China's "world factory", and also called China's economy in decline.
However, the good times did not last long, and in January 2023, after China ushered in the liberalization, Vietnam's exports took a sharp turn - not only the export orders for textiles and footwear plummeted by 80%, but South Korea's Samsung, which contributed 20% of the export value, also reduced the output of Vietnam. Overseas investors, who had previously shown great enthusiasm for Vietnam, also fell sharply by 38 percent in the first quarter8%。
If you want to grab Chinese rice to eat, your own rice bowl will be broken first
In just half a year, Vietnam has changed from a "sweet and sweet" to an outcast. The contraction of export orders has caused Vietnam to face a severe economic collapse, with more than 42,900 enterprises closing in the first quarter and about 640,000 people unemployed.
On the other hand, China, which has been sung down by the "more and more blows", has received heads of state and businessmen who have come to China since February. Apple CEO Tim Cook, who took the lead in running away from Vietnam half a year ago, also came to China for the first time this time, and at the same time played the emotional card with China while not talking about Vietnam, which was interpreted by the outside world as wanting to return to the Chinese market.
Soon after he left, Lee Jae-yong, the "thigh" Samsung exported by Vietnam, also visited China again after three years.
The excitement spread beyond the technology industry, and the president of the U.S. semiconductor industry recently slapped the chip ban in the face in an interview, bluntly saying that "it is inseparable from the Chinese market";LV and other luxury giants lined up to rush to China, after all, China has contracted 80% of their fashion and leather goods sales in Asia
Coveting the position of "world factory"?Vietnam is advised to abandon all illusions
Nikkei Chinese Network mercilessly pointed out in "Vietnam's "Export Country" Has Dead Spots" that Vietnam has a hard flaw in assembly technology. Taking smartphone production as an example, the yield rate of high-end mobile phones produced in Vietnam today is only about 50%, and it must be increased by another 200% to catch up with China.
In addition, the article also analyzes that the proportion of Vietnam's imports of parts and components to China has reached 33%, and in terms of exports, in addition to Samsung, the United States is another major export target of Vietnam, accounting for 30%. This shows that Vietnam's economic growth formula in the past six months seems to be from China's first intermediate parts, and then the finished products are sold to the United States and South Korea.
Therefore, in essence, neither Vietnam, which wants to usurp the throne, nor the West, which wants to defeat our country, can really leave the Chinese market. China's official media once issued a self-examination when the domestic economy was sluggish, reminding the Chinese people that "all illusions should be abandoned". Now these seven words can also be given to Vietnam, which has ambitions for the position of "world factory" - instead of relying on others to dream, it is better to strive for self-improvement.