The battle between China and the United States and Vietnam!The new trick of US decoupling begins in Mexico and ends in Cambodia
Introductory. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has been emphasizing that it does not want to economically dissociate itself from China, but rather wants to do"De-risk"Stratagem. Recently, they conducted a tender for Vietnam, which attracted the attention of the whole world. As an important guardian of China's southern gate, Vietnam has seized the historical opportunity of production spillover and has become increasingly economically connected with China. By investing in countries such as Vietnam and India, Chinese companies have circumvented regulations and high tariffs, and have established processing, manufacturing and re-export centers in Southeast Asia. American"Friendly offshoring"The strategy has led to an increase in investment by Chinese companies in countries such as Vietnam and India. After Biden came to power, the United States took"Nearshoring", Mexico and Canada are its main partners. However, as Chinese companies skillfully relocated factories to Southeast Asia, the United States had to realize that decoupling was impractical and began to take it"Decoupling"Stratagem.
First, Mexico has strengthened its cooperation in the analysis of foreign investment.
As"De-risk"As part of the strategy, the United States and Mexico signed a cooperation agreement on December 7, 2021, aimed at strengthening the analysis of foreign investment. Under the agreement, the two countries will establish a bilateral working group to enhance the analysis of the risks that may arise from foreign investment, particularly in the areas of specific technologies, critical infrastructure and sensitive data. Although the agreement does not explicitly mention China, it is clear that the United States is working with Mexico to help it strengthen its analysis of the potential risks of foreign investment.
The United States uses Vietnam as a center for processing, manufacturing, and re-export.
This year, the United States tried to replicate the Mexican model in Vietnam. In April of this year, U.S. Secretary of State John Blinken visited Vietnam. In September, Biden personally visited Vietnam and elevated US-Vietnam relations to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership, on a par with China-Vietnam relations. However, there is confusion about the actions of the United States in Vietnam, arguing that there is no substantial cooperation on the ground, other than the establishment of partnerships. In fact, it's part of a U.S. plan starting with Mexico, which starts with a review of investment and security in near-coastal outsourcing countries, and when the model matures, expands to coastal-friendly outsourcing countries. Due to its important geographical location and the fact that it is the country with the most processing and manufacturing and entrepot in China, Vietnam has become the focus of competition between China and the United States. However, can the United States replicate Mexico's successful model in Vietnam?
Vietnam's influence on U.S. strategy.
Vietnam's strategic location and close economic ties with China make it a U.S. implementation"De-risk"Important objectives of the strategy. However, unlike Mexico, the U.S. has a more difficult time implementing security controls in Vietnam. In addition, there is also uncertainty about the continuity of US policy after the new ** came to power. Therefore, it is not yet possible to determine the success or failure of the US strategy in Vietnam, which will take time to prove. There is not much difference in the essence of decoupling and de-risking, only to a different extent, and this is just a play on words by the Americans.
Summary. De-risk"Strategy is a new change in US economic policy toward China, aimed at safeguarding security and national interests. Mexico and Vietnam have become centers of containment, and the United States wants to guard against potential risks by tightening controls on foreign investment. However, while the United States has made progress in Mexico, it will not be easy to implement its strategy in Vietnam. The author believes that whether it is decoupling or risk reduction, these are only temporary strategies, and the ultimate goal is to ensure their own economic status and interests. In today's globalized world, interdependence between countries is inevitable, and cooperation and economic exchanges can help achieve a win-win situation. Therefore, I hope that all countries will adhere to the principle of openness and cooperation and jointly promote the sustained development and prosperity of the world economy.