According to Israel's "Jerusalem Post" and the British "Daily Mail", according to a source close to Putin, Putin plans to nominate his chosen ** person in 2023 and will not participate in the ** election planned for 2024. He will retire and live in a private residence near the Black Sea to avoid the risk of being overthrown in a coup. The news was reported in the West, but not in Russia. This raises the question: is this message true?
In fact, this news reported by the West is likely to be a discord. The essence of this kind of discord is to use the psychological gap to make the other party feel a sense of loss. The appearance of this news may trigger a struggle within **. This kind of distraction is insidious because it tends to make people make unrealistic decisions. Therefore, we must not be deceived by this kind of divisive scheme, and we must not believe the reports of the West. Sometimes people lose their minds in the face of the supreme power, and even when they know that the news is false, they have unrealistic hopes.
Medvedev said that Lyres is stupid, and this cannot be ignored. Many people around Putin may have a psychological gap like Konishi Yukinaga and others, which can cause some trouble. This kind of discord out of nothing has a very low cost, but the benefits are very high. Although this news is fake, whether Putin will run in 2024 and who he likes is still needs us to understand the current domestic political ecology in Russia. Russia is divided into three factions. The first faction is pro-Western, also called the St. Petersburg Gang.
These people are Putin's henchmen, such as Medvedev, Ivanov and others. Prigozhin, who crashed the plane, was also one of them. These are the contacts that Putin made when he was deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. Their status in Russia is equivalent to that of the Ming Dynasty's cabinet, the Qing Dynasty's military aircraft department, or the Han Dynasty's inner court, all of which were the core of the emperor's team. After Putin took out the seven oligarchs, these people filled the power vacuum and controlled the lifeblood of Russia's economy.
Now they control Russia's gas, banking, finance and **, setting the country's major policies. Behind these big oligarchs, there are many small oligarchs, representing the interests of their class. Putin used to be an oligarchic killer, but he is not on the opposite side of the oligarchic class. He killed the seven oligarchs only because they tried to interfere in politics and refused to listen. For the oligarchic class, Putin did not exterminate them all.
On the contrary, after the fall of the seven oligarchs, Putin and his St. Petersburg gang replaced them as the leaders of this stratum. If the St. Petersburg Gang is the strongest ruling party in Russia, then the Imperial Russia faction is the largest opposition party in Russia. The Imperial Russian faction pursued extremist great-power chauvinism. They believe that the Soviet Union in the past and Russia now have taken the wrong path, and they should return to the line of the tsarist era, continue to expand their territory, and deter their neighbors. This group of people is neither inclined to the West nor to the East, and only follows Russia.
However, the Imperial Russian faction is not a good type, they have ambitions in many parts of our country, and if they come to power, it may lead to the deterioration of Sino-Russian relations. Dugin is known as Putin's national teacher, but in reality he and Putin's faction are opposites. Another representative of the Imperial Russian faction was Stecolev, and it was he who took matters into his own hands and forcibly rebelled against the entire Crimea during the Crimea incident, which forced Putin to recognize the ownership of Crimea and send troops, triggering the Crimean crisis.
Although Putin did not want to do so, Stekolev's connections and influence made him a national hero in the country, especially in the four regions of eastern Ukraine. The St. Petersburg gang represented the pro-Western faction, but it was unpopular at home, and on the contrary, the prestige of the Imperial Russian faction was growing. In addition to these two factions, Russia also has a powerful unit called the Hilavik clique, which is mainly composed of military and police gendarmes. If the St. Petersburg Gang is the brain of Russia, then the Shiravik group is the hands and feet of Russia, engaged in whatever instructions the brain gives.
However, both the KGB and the military in Russia have their own self-awareness, and all palace coups in history have their participation. Putin was able to rise to power on the one hand because he was born in the KGB and the Shiravik clique considered him one of his own, and on the other hand, he showed a tough attitude in the war against Chechnya and won the favor of the military. Without the support of Hilavik, Putin would not have been able to ascend to the throne with the strength of the St. Petersburg gang alone.
However, unlike the Imperial Russian faction and the St. Petersburg gang, the Shiravik clique is like flowing water, and no matter which faction comes to power, it will not be affected. Shiravik, this sword, they prefer to be held in the hands of the strong, unlike a mediocre monarch like Yeltsin, who will not like it. The Yeltsin period was a special period in the history of Russia. During Yeltsin's tenure in office, he allowed all kinds of demons and monsters to act recklessly and weaken themselves. As for the Hilavik group that maintained the royal power, they chose to put away the sword.
In fact, these people have long looked at Yeltsin unpleasantly, and even if Yeltsin himself is shameless later, after Putin appears, the Hilavik clique will help him maintain his dignity. But it's precisely because the Hilavik group is so powerful that they can push you up and pull you down. No monarch would have absolute trust in such a group. In Putin's power system, the St. Petersburg gang is more trusted than the Hilavik clique. At the helm of the Hilavik group is Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
After the Wagner mutiny, many people **Putin should clean up Shoigu. But in the end, I found out that this old brother suffered almost nothing. This is not because of how much Putin trusts him, but because he can't move. In fact, the relationship between them is not that of a monarch and a minister, but of a partnership. Shoigu. This is doomed to make Putin absolutely impossible to make him the "crown prince", because Shoigu's forces are already terrifying enough, and if he is given the orthodox title of the East Palace, then many originally neutral forces will bet on him in advance.
Whether Putin can land safely at that time is a question. So is it possible for Mishustin and Medvedev?In the St. Petersburg gang, the loudest voice is Medvedev. This person has also been a ** before, has experience in governance, and he is also a close friend of Putin, so he is the most suitable heir in public and private. But alas, he was defeated by the international situation. After the Crimea incident, anti-Western sentiment in Russia has been rising, and Putin must conform to public opinion, otherwise the hearts and minds of the people will be snatched away by the imperial Russian faction.
You must know that Hilavik did not reject the Imperial Russian faction, on the contrary, the butcher and the sword were born a pair. But Medvedev does not understand this, he is a hardcore pro-Western, and the relationship between the two is increasingly estranged. It is impossible for Putin to make him the "crown prince", otherwise the St. Petersburg gang will definitely be defeated by the Shiravik and the Imperial Russian faction. Remember, Hilavik was crucial, he was the key to the St. Petersburg gang's struggle against the Russian faction. Whoever he supports, he will win.
Therefore, in 2020, Putin launched a surprise attack and wiped out Medvedev's cabinet, which can be said to have completely abolished them. As we mentioned earlier, the St. Petersburg faction was pro-Western. Putin's opposition to Medvedev's claims is not just a disagreement between the two men, but also between Putin and the St. Petersburg faction. Especially against the backdrop of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is impossible for the St. Petersburg faction to come to power. If they come to power, Russia is bound to be betrayed. And what about Mishustin?
Again, the answer is no. Both the Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of Russia are positions of real power, with the Prime Minister in charge of diplomacy and security, and the Prime Minister in charge of civil affairs. Mishustin never had any military experience, and it was impossible for such a person to be supported by the Shilavik group. Mishustin. In my opinion, it is uncertain who the next ** will be.
But one thing is certain, that is, in the case of internal and external troubles in Russia, ** people can only be selected from the Hilavik group, at least with the background of the Hilavik group, and be regarded by them as their own. The person with the most potential at the moment is Alexei Dyumin. He was born in the Shilavik group, served as Putin's guard, and also served as the governor of Tula Oblast, whether in the military or civilian field, and has a certain potential.
However, to become the next Putin, this person is missing one very important thing, and that is military merit. Alexey Dyumin. Therefore, I do not think that Putin's political career will end in the short term, and he will need to serve at least one more term. Because he needs to give his successors enough time to grow. Moreover, at this critical moment when the two countries are at war, changing the leader is a taboo. The current situation is not friendly to Russia, and even if Putin wants to leave, the Russians will not agree.
Alexei does not have the ability to replace Putin in the short term and assume the responsibility of uniting people's hearts and defending against foreign enemies. And he is still a junior, not influential enough compared to Medvedev, Stekolev, Shoigu and other predecessors. You know, Russia does not pay attention to the order of succession, they prefer capable people to take power. Therefore, if Alexei wants to consolidate his dominance, he must have military exploits like Putin in the past in order to win the approval of his ministers. Alexey Dyumin.
And the current Russia-Ukraine war, like the Chechen war back then, is an opportunity for heroes to rise in troubled times. But somehow, this man never appeared on the battlefield. The author believes that Putin may want to wait until the situation is clear before letting his ** person take office. After all, in the current situation, Putin does not have a grasp of the outcome of the control of the war, and if he loses, it will be troublesome.
In addition, the Hiravík group itself is not a plate of water, the internal competition for the successor is open and covert, and Putin's last candidate was inexplicably hung up, which must involve the shady scenes within the Hiravik. If Alexei goes to the battlefield and these people stab him in the back, then it will be difficult for him to succeed. And changes in the external situation may also affect the race for successors in Russia.
If the situation becomes worse, then there is a high probability that there will be a Putin-style strongman rise among the imperial Russian faction, and even if Putin is unwilling, he will not be able to stop it. Therefore, it is too early to discuss the issue of Putin's ** person. This article was originally written by "Literature and History", and has been opened to protect rights on the whole network