When it comes to the hot new energy track, the first thing that comes to mind in the market is photovoltaic, wind power, and charging piles that have exploded this year, but the UHV segment has been ignored by the market.
In the past 2 years, due to factors such as the epidemic, UHV has not accelerated as expected by the market, the project has stalled, and this year has officially entered the start-up period, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about to end, and the next 2 years will be the first period of UHV construction. Not only that, the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the demand for deep-sea construction have ensured the sustainability of UHV's future growth.
Those enterprises that have entered the UHV core chain will usher in a performance booster in the next round of UHV construction.
Highlights of this article: 1. How much space is there for UHV demand?
2. Which links will benefit deeply?
In the past two years, wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy power generation tracks have attracted great attention from the market, when the market is concerned about the scale of wind power and photovoltaic installation, how high the annual growth rate is, the lack of new energy consumption has been ignored. However, China's power resources and load distribution is uneven, wind and solar energy and other clean energy are mainly in the western region, and the power consumption area is in the east and the middle, this power generation and electricity imbalance, power generation in the local area can not be completely absorbed, power resources storage is difficult, if can not be strongly transmitted, power resources will be wasted, especially in the past two years, photovoltaic, wind power and other new energy installed scale and penetration rate continue to increase, the demand for consumption and transmission is becoming more and more urgent, and can solve this pain point, only UHV. And in the next two years, UHV will usher in the first period of construction.
UHV is divided into DC UHV and AC UHV, and if you want to efficiently carry out "west-to-east power transmission" to achieve long-distance and large-capacity power transmission scheme, only UHVDC transmission can be satisfied, because UHV AC transmission loses too much power in long distances, and the efficiency and economy are poor.
Although we all know the importance of UHV construction, in fact, because of the epidemic in 2021-2022, China's UHV project has been slow, and the overall UHV project construction progress has been moved backward. At present, there are "22 straight and 17 crossing" UHV that has been put into operation in China, but only 5 of them are UHV mainly for the transmission of new energy, which is far from meeting the delivery demand of future wind and solar power generation bases.
However, the advancement of the wind and solar base project has made the construction of UHV imminent. The first batch of 97The 05GW wind and solar base is planned to be fully operational by the end of this yearThe future growth of UHV construction will mainly come from the second and third batches of large wind and solar bases.
The second batch of wind and solar bases plans to build 455GW, of which 200GW of wind and solar bases are planned to be built during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, 150GW of external transmission, and 50GW for local self-use, and 255GW of wind and solar bases are planned to be built during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, with 165GW for external delivery and 90GW for local self-use. The third batch of 190GW projects announced, the proportion of delivery has not been clarified for the time being, assuming that 50% of the delivery will also be 95GW, and it is not ruled out that there will be new UHV demand in the future. Assuming that a single UHV corresponds to about 8-12GW of wind and solar bases, the second batch of large bases is expected to need 33 UHV transmission channels during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plan periods, and the third batch is expected to need 8.
According to the public information plan, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, it is expected that there will be 10 remaining (9 direct and 1 cross) UHV projects that have not yet started, and 4 straight projects have been approved to start construction in 2023, so it is expected that there will be a total of 13 UHV DC and 1 AC in 2023-2025.
The investment amount of DC UHV single line is usually 200-30 billion yuan, assuming that the investment amount of a single UHV DC is 25 billion yuan, and the AC investment is 5 billion yuan, the total scale of UHV will reach 330 billion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan this year. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the second and third batches of wind and solar bases need to send about 22 DC UHVs, with a market size of about 550 billion yuan.
The market size demand of nearly one trillion yuan in the future of UHV belongs to the great opportunity of China's electric power and has to be paid attention to.
The UHV project takes about 2 years from approval to operation, and the construction progress of the 2021-2022 "14th Five-Year Plan" is slow, and it will start normally this year, and it is expected that UHV will enter the peak period of revenue recognition in the second half of next year.
In addition to land, the development of deep-sea wind power has also increased the structural demand for UHV flexible DC transmission, because the offshore wind farm is a weak AC system composed of wind mechanisms, which cannot meet the demand for conventional DC transmission intensity, and flexible DC has low requirements for grid strength, so it has become the only scheme for deep-sea wind power transmission.
All in all, the demand for both onshore and deep sea will prompt UHV to usher in the first period of construction in the next few years.
The UHV industry ushered in an explosive period, which will inevitably drive all links of the industrial chain to benefit. Core equipment accounts for 25% of UHVDC's cost components. The core equipment of DC UHV includes converter transformer, converter valve, GIS, DC protection system, and DC wall bushing, among which the converter transformer and converter valve with the highest value are accounted for 43% and 22% of the core equipment respectively.
Insight Research).
In terms of the competitive landscape, UHV is a key power transmission link, with strict requirements for safety and quality, and high barriers to entry for core equipment, so most of the core equipment and the market are highly concentrated, and only a few UHV DC core equipment meet the production standards, DC control and protection system CR3 accounts for 100%, Guodian NARI provides 76% of the market share, and the remaining 24% is provided by Xu Ji Electric;The converter valve CR3 accounts for 83%, China Power NARI provides 50%, China Xidian provides 21%, and Xu Ji Electric provides 13%.Converter transformers CR3 accounted for 77%, of which TBEA accounted for 34%, China XD accounted for 31%, and Baobian Electric accounted for 12%.
Therefore, on the whole, the top three in all aspects of DC UHV core equipment have monopolized the vast majority of the market share.
According to the construction scale of UHVDC during 2023-2025 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the market space of core equipment will also be greatly increased.
If a total of 13 UHVDC lines are expected to be in 2023-2025, assuming that the investment amount of a single UHVDC is 25 billion yuan, the total increase of UHVDC in the next two years will be about 325 billion yuan, and about 22 UHVDC lines are expected to be needed in 2026-2030 (the "15th Five-Year Plan" period), with a market size of about 550 billion yuan. Assuming that the core equipment accounts for 25%, and the converter transformer and converter valve account for 43% and 22% of the core equipment respectively, it is expected that the market increment of converter transformer and converter valve in the next two years will be about 34.9 billion yuan and 17.8 billion yuan, and the market increment of converter transformer and converter valve during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period will be about 59.1 billion yuan and 30.2 billion yuan, and the total market size of converter transformer and converter valve will be about 94 billion yuan and 48 billion yuan as of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.
At present, the top three converter transformers are TBEA, China Xidian, and Baobian ElectricThe top three converter valves are Guodian NARI, China Xidian and Xu Ji Electric. In the future, the core equipment market increment of nearly 100 billion yuan will be mostly divided by the above leading enterprises.
In general, compared with the fully marketized tracks such as charging piles, photovoltaics, and wind power, UHV is a major event related to the construction of power infrastructure for the national economy and people's livelihood, and the degree of marketization is naturally not as high as the above tracks, and the core equipment suppliers are also very concentrated, but its future growth potential is not lower than that of the above tracks.
With the continuous increase in wind power and photovoltaic installations, as well as the laying of deep-sea projects in the future, it will inevitably drive a surge in UHV demand, and the epidemic has passed, the project has begun to start one after another this year, and the 14th Five-Year Plan goal is about to be completed.
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