It is not necessary to use force against the Philippines, and within the Philippines, signs of divis

Mondo International Updated on 2024-01-28

As everyone knows, the Philippines has been very active on the Ren'ai Jiao issue since the beginning of this year, frequently challenging China's bottom line, sending supplies and building materials to the illegally beached broken ship, in an attempt to strengthen the broken ship, so as to achieve the goal of illegally occupying Ren'ai Jiao for a long time. China has always been very stable in the Philippines' approach, sending coast guard ships to intercept Philippine ships, so that humanitarian supplies can be put on board, but building materials are absolutely not. On the other hand, China has spoken out through diplomatic channels, urging the Philippines to abide by the Code of Conduct for Parties in the South China Sea and tow away the wrecked ship as soon as possible. It can be seen that the Chinese side has always been impatient and very confident on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao. Because we know that this is the last resort of the Philippines, and we are far from showing our hole cards.

With regard to the Philippines, there is no need for us to use force at all, and the Philippines is a country of many islands, and in terms of political structure, there is a certain degree of decentralization between ** and ** locality**. While *** has the dominant power in Manila, local **, such as Cagayan Province, also has its own administrative autonomy. This structure facilitates rapid response to local needs and promotes regional development, but it also leads to challenges in policy coordination. The recent move by the governor of Mamba in Cagayan province in northern Luzon shows a disagreement with *** on foreign and security policy. He invited the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Xilian, to participate in local infrastructure projects, including the construction of a new international port, airport and railway. He has proposed an international port in the northern port city of Apari and a civilian airport with a 3,000-meter runway, hoping that China will help build a railway between the two places.

This initiative will undoubtedly contribute to the economic development of Cagayan Province. However, in the case of the relatively acute territorial dispute between China and the Philippines, these proposals of Mamba are obviously contrary to the Philippines. According to the Philippine Bureau of Statistics (PSA), economic growth in Cagayan Province has been below the Philippine average for the past few years. Due to the urgency of economic development, Mamba hopes that China will provide the necessary financial and technical support to Cagayan Province in terms of attracting foreign investment. In some places**, cooperation with China can accelerate the region's infrastructure development and inject more vitality into economic growth. The governor of Mamba made it clear that he wanted to "have a good talk" with China. In his view, through pragmatic economic cooperation, tensions between the Philippines and China can be eased or even resolved. This attitude can be supported by some people and local business circles, but it will be opposed by the Philippines. As a result, the contradictions between the Philippines and the local governments have become more and more acute, and there have been huge differences in the stance on China.

From another point of view, Ren'ai Jiao is also a means for the Philippines to divert domestic attention, and Marcos Jr. has faced many domestic challenges and political contradictions since he was elected ** in 2022. The first is the widening gap between the rich and the poor and pervasive social injustice. According to the World Bank, the Philippines had a Gini coefficient of 42 in 20203. Shows a high level of income inequality. The poverty rate has reached 16 in 20227%。There is also domestic controversy over the way the Philippines has handled its relationship with China, with the Philippines wanting to attract more investment from China and fearing that over-reliance could affect national sovereignty, particularly in the South China Sea. In addition, the Philippines** faces threats of violence and terrorism at home, particularly in Mindanao and other southern regions. There is also the unresolved food issue, and Marcos Jr. promised to knock down the grain ** during the campaign, but it has not been fulfilled until now. With domestic problems so severe, the Philippines** is likely to exploit nationalist sentiments, especially on sensitive issues such as territorial disputes, to divert the attention of its citizens. In fact, similar tactics are not uncommon. History has been marked many times by using external threats to strengthen domestic cohesion and distract domestic grievances. Fueled by nationalist sentiments, the population tends to temporarily put aside its focus on domestic contradictions and instead unite in the face of external "enemies".

Since the beginning of this year, the Philippine Department of Defense has repeatedly expressed concern about China's actions in the South China Sea, while highlighting the activities of Chinese vessels near Second Thomas Shoal. These statements quickly received widespread attention from the Philippines and the public, and sparked heated discussions on social media, which to some extent alleviated the public's dissatisfaction with domestic issues. Therefore, for the Philippines, China is a very good "enemy", which can not only help the Philippines to divert internal contradictions, but also allow China to be generous and tolerant in foreign issues, and will not turn these conflicts into large-scale conflicts, which can be said to be a very safe "enemy". However, the Philippines is not of a single mind, and there are many local administrators such as the governor of Mamba who want to draw in relations with China and develop the local economy. On the one hand, China has co-opted these local forces, and on the other hand, it has exerted pressure through diplomatic means.

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