Today's lithium carbonate contract has experienced a rollercoaster of drastic**. The LC2401 contract fell more than 8% intraday, and the main contract fell more than 3% intraday. However, what is surprising is that when it was approaching, ** quickly rose, and the main contract rose by 998% of the cap limit, other contracts also hit the limit, but the open interest fell sharply. As the first delivery date approaches, the capital game intensifies, and the futures price remains highly volatile.
In the spot market, battery-grade lithium carbonate** is at 104-11.40,000 tons fluctuated, and the average price was 10900,000 tons, down 0300,000 tons of yuan. The ** of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 930-9.900,000 tons with an average price of 9600,000 tons, down 0250,000 tons.
Recently, the lithium carbonate market has been on a downward trend. According to SMM, after the short squeeze crisis was lifted, some companies affected by the mood began to return to rationality. Salt enterprises have stabilized long-term agreements, and some ** merchants have also re-shipped. However, as the market still has the fundamentals of oversupply and demand, the overall ** is gradually declining.
In terms of mineral management, downstream manufacturers have slightly reduced prices every day, and some miners have reduced prices and shipped due to financial pressure, resulting in a continuous decline in market transactions. As the market is generally bearish, the factory has exerted more pressure on the carp mica, and the carp has also continued to weaken. It is expected that the follow-up carp** will continue to be weak.
In the downstream, some battery cell companies have taken holidays in advance, and leading battery cell factories have significantly reduced production, resulting in poor demand for ternary cathodes. Enterprises began to continue to reduce production and strategically shrink to adapt to a new round of industrial adjustment. Ternary precursor companies have reduced production and gone to the warehouse, the market is generally pessimistic, and many companies have taken layoff measures. Iron carp production enterprises are mainly sales-oriented, worried that downstream battery cell enterprises will regret their orders, and they will be more cautious in scheduling production, and some iron carp enterprises will reduce production. Downstream production continues to decrease, resulting in a decrease in lithium carbonate demand.
For the future market trend, industry institutions said that the current fundamental surplus is still continuing, relatively loose, and the mine price has not shown signs of stopping. The cost center of gravity continues to move downward, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain the most weak operation. The recent market volatility is obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to the occurrence of long and short games that may lead to overfalls.
Focus: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is coming
The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce this week's interest rate decision and the latest economic projections at 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 14, which is the last monetary policy meeting of the year, and Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour later, that is, at 3:30.
Wall Street reporter Nick Timiraroos, known as the "Midland Microphone", and many foreign analysts pointed out that the Fed is unlikely to seriously discuss when to cut interest rates this week and in the coming months, unless the economy is weaker than expected.
As inflation continues to fall from its highest level in decades, investors will be keeping a close eye on Fed Chair Powell's press conference, the economy**, and the prospect of a rate cut from the dot plot of interest rates, which will test bets on rate cuts in early 2024.
The vast majority of market participants expect the Fed to keep interest rates at 5 for the third time in a row25%-5.50%, although traders expect a 25 basis point rate cut as early as March next year.
The Federal Reserve has tried to overturn market expectations for a sharp rate cut next year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned earlier this month that it was too early to speculate on when to cut rates and suggested that the central bank would be "prepared to tighten policy if appropriate." ”
The unexpected acceleration of the overall and core CPI monthly growth in the United States in November, while the annual rate of growth has not slowed, not only reinforces the Fed's determination to keep interest rates high in the near term, but also makes it unlikely that it will turn to rate cuts early next year.
A number of investment banks have also given expectations for the Fed's monetary policy decision, and the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance with ANZ and Rabobank.
ANZ believes Powell will need to maintain hawkish guidance as the fight against rising inflation is far from complete and the FOMC does not want to risk financial conditions being too loose as it could undermine its goal of sustainably returning inflation to 2%.
Rabobank expects FOMC policy to remain on hold and underlines its intention to be data-dependent and cautious, and Powell is expected to reiterate that it is too early to confidently conclude that monetary policy has reached a sufficiently restrictive stance or to speculate on when policy may be eased.
According to the Commercial Bank of Canada (CIBC), while Powell's team may not be as likely to be as market-level in timing its first rate cut, there is no reason for the FOMC to change course.
Many investment banks roughly predict that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in June and maintain a rate cut of about 50 basis points next year, far lower than the market expectation of 125 basis points.