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** Financial gossip
Author of Financial Gossip
The sweet milk selected by Moutai still failed to break through the bottleneck.
Recently, Li Ziyuan announced its financial results for the first three quarters of 2023.
According to the financial report, in the first three quarters of 2023, Li Ziyuan will achieve operating income of aboutfor 106.9 billion yuan, year-on-yearGrowth 072%；Net profit attributable to the parent company1.$8.9 billion, year-on-yearGrowth of 2187%
Figure Li Ziyuan's financial report for the first three quarters of 2023 Compared with last year, Li Ziyuan's profit is ** year-on-year, which can be described as a boost of eyebrows.
After all, in 2022, Li Ziyuan has been under the haze of "double decline in profits".
Figure from wind However, investors do not seem to be satisfied with this seemingly "bright" performance.
Wind data shows that the third quarter financial report was disclosed the day after (October 17)., Li Ziyuan's share price**316%。
After all, Li Ziyuan's profits** are not because of the expansion of sales, but becauseIt has carried out measures to "reduce costs and increase efficiency".
This includes product price increases, lower selling expenses and lower related raw material costs in the second half of last year.
After the price increase, can the plum orchard still maintain a growth trend and let consumers continue to pay?
All this remains to be proven.
To know,The controversy over plum orchard sweet milk has always existed objectively.
Strictly speaking, plum orchards can't be counted as milk, it's calledMilk-containing beveragesMore appropriate.
Why do you still add the word "milk" to it?
Because, Li Ziyuan is still a little bit involved with "milk".
A closer look at the ingredient list of plum orchards reveals that the top three are:Water, full-fat milk powder, white sugarThe rest is a variety of food additives.
Obviously, Plum Garden is one of them"Sugar water" mixed with milk powder.
And among themGuar gum, carrageenan, sodium alginateThese three thickeners are designed to make this "sugar water".Simulates the taste of milk
Because the cost of white sugar is high and the sweetness is lowCyclamate and acesulfame potassiumThis kind of artificial sweetener is used for:Adds sweetnessTarget.
It can only be said that Li Ziyuan is really calculating.
If you drink it as milk, delusional about growing nutrients, thenThere is a high probability that it can only be lengthened horizontally
Plum Garden is also self-aware, and its full name of packaging is called "Plum Garden Sweet Milk Milk Drink".
It's not that it's sincere, but if it's not labeled that way, it's illegal.
According to the national standard, pure milk must be 100% raw milk as raw material, and the protein content is not less than 2 per 100ml9g。
And the protein content of 100ml of plum garden sweet milk is only 1g.
Not only is the ingredient list "not very clean", but even the nutritional value is not at all comparable to that of pure milk.
Neither nutritious, nor healthy, nor fresh.
Last year, the popularity of Hextech made more and more consumers worry about food safety.
The nutritional content of the plum orchard is gradually known to the public, and everyone also says that the plum orchard is the real "technology and hard work".
Of course, in the plum orchard ingredient listThese food additives are used within reasonable limits in accordance with relevant regulations.
Simply drink it as a drink, drink it sweetly and you're done.
After all, you've all been drinking, so why are you going to be healthy?It's better to seek some happiness, sweetness can delight the body and mind.
So drinking plum orchards, you can't treat them with the mentality of drinking milk.
If you think of it as a drink, it's pretty tasty.
The early plum orchard relied on this sweet taste to penetrate the hearts of elementary school students.
In 1994, the Liziyuan brand was established, at that time, Bright Dairy and Mengniu had not yet been launched.
The domestic finished dairy industry is also just getting started.
This allowed Li Ziyuan to seize the opportunity and seize the gap in the market.
A milky white bottle with a green cap of liquid milk quickly occupied all kinds of shops in East China.
Whether it's a big breakfast shop or a small cart stall, you can see plum orchards.
It can be said that plum orchards can be seen everywhere, and there is no one in East China who does not know it.
It can also be seen from Li Ziyuan's financial reportEast China has always been the most important contributor to Liziyuan's revenue, contributing nearly half of the main business income.
As soon as this product was launched, in the sweet-loving Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions, the sweet milk of Li Ziyuan became a hit at that time.
Sales soared, and performance also ushered in explosive growth.
According to related reports,In 2000, Li Ziyuan's sales exceeded 100 million yuan, and in 2003, it was three times higher than 4300 million yuan.
But now, it seems that the plum orchard can't be sold.
The financial report for the third quarter of this year shows that East China, the "base camp" of its revenue, is facing the risk of "losing ground".Revenue is on a downward trend.
Even has been continuousThe Northeast and Northwest regions have maintained positive revenue growth for three yearsThere was also a performance "Waterloo".
It is undeniable that the times are changing, everyone's health consciousness has risen, and "sugar-free drinks" have become a new trend at the moment.
And the next generation has grown up and has become sensitive to sweet and greasy tastes.
The post-00s who grew up in the era of appearance sneered at it.
The plum orchard, which is still "eaten all over the world with one trick", seems to have entered an "embarrassing period".
Although Li Ziyuan started earlier than Mengniu and Bright Dairy, it is like a younger brother.
Its peers are emerging in an endless stream of new products, and they will also "spend their jobs".
Li Ziyuan will always only have that sweet milk, and the packaging will not change for decades, and it will always be earthy and ugly.
It is no exaggeration to say that since the establishment of Li Ziyuan, it has relied on the performance of this "sweet milk".
According to the data of its financial report, over the past few yearsThe revenue of Plum Garden Sweet Milk accounts for about 97% of the main revenue.
It is undeniable that this single product strategy is also really useful, and Li Ziyuan has conquered the sweet milk market, evenIn 2021, it was successfully listed and became the "first stock of sweet milk".
It's just that there is always momentum to run wildly, and there will always be a touch of the ceiling on the track that you are good at.
In the beverage track of "Volume King", Li Ziyuan's model of over-reliance on a single product is bound to slowly lose the market.
Therefore, Li Ziyuan also felt the crisis, and in 2018, he launched 18 products in one go.
Including coffee drinks, room temperature yogurt, "stinky milk" and so on, mainly in the high-end market.
It's just that there is no splash, and I haven't even heard of it.
The cold of new products, in addition to the low-end stereotype that Li Ziyuan has always had, I am afraid that it has a certain relationship with its product formula.
After all, in the current market, the trend of "low sugar" and "sugar-free" is popular, not only pursuing taste, but also pursuing healthy drinking.
Nowadays, consumers are becoming more and more difficult to fool, and everyone knows how to read the ingredient list, and the truth is clear at a glance.
This year, Li Ziyuan also launched zero sucrose sweet milk milk drink and zero sucrose sweet milk milk drink, although it is trendingBut it's also clearly slow.
Follow the "things to imitate" behind other people's buttocks, and once you encounter a change in the consumption outlet, you will become very passive.
What's more, the current beverage environment isThe tuyere comes and goes quicklyAs the saying goes, you can't eat hot.
It can be said thatLi Ziyuan has no more explosive products, and he has been eating his old book.
Even the current sweetened milk is not in line with the current trend of healthy, low-sugar beverages.
The main reason why Li Ziyuan was able to occupy the streets and alleys of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai and quickly occupy the market was becauseIt will save money.
Compared with similar products, Li Ziyuan's ** is low, so to speakVery cost-effective, 4 yuan a bottle, and you can even get 2 yuan a bottle for activities.
The reason why Li Ziyuan can hit the ** so low is that in addition to the low cost of raw materials mentioned earlier, there areIt's "slamming the door" everywhere.
For example, the packaging of Plum Garden, which uses high-density polyethylene, is generally used to blow cosmetics and shampoo bottles.
And Li Ziyuan used it to fill milk, without him, because it was cheap.
Yuan is a catty, and it is also durable, it can withstand the high temperature of 140 degrees, and it is difficult to break it no matter how you toss it.
For the sake of cost, Li Ziyuan can even sacrifice the beauty and use such an ugly bottle to fill the milk.
Moreover, the distribution channel of Li Ziyuan has always been in the county market, supported by the county commissary.
There is less supermarket entrance fees, bar code fees, shelf fees, ** fees and a series of other fees.
Their spokesperson is even AI designed and synthesized!Saved a lot of endorsement fees!
Other brand co-branding is a true co-brandingLi Ziyuan just relies on "rubbing", only rubbing but not linking.
Others are real Barbie, and Li Ziyuan relies on p and p, which is almost fine, and saves another penny.
In terms of R&D expenses, Li Ziyuan is also very picky.
From 2019 to 2022, Li Ziyuan's R&D expenses were 947590,000, 941540,000, 1415400,000, 1542440,000,Compared to sales expenses, it is a drop in the bucket.
The only thing that can be done may be its office building, which is at least a modern building, which looks quite expensive.
But,Although Li Ziyuan picks the door, it is very generous to dealers。The rebate that Li Ziyuan gives to dealers is very high.
Compare it to its competitor, Wangzi MilkThe profit margin of the plum orchard channel is more than double that of Wang Tsai Milk.
The main one is one"The province of the province, the flower".It has won its peers in terms of cost, which is also the most important core competitiveness of an enterprise.
In recent years, with the rise of domestic products, Li Ziyuan, who has become a word-of-mouth domestic product, has not seized this wave of dividends.
On the Douyin and Xiaohongshu platforms that young people are keen on, Li Ziyuan's shortcomings are obvious.
The number of followers on the Douyin platform is only tens of thousands, and its competitor, Want Want Food, a subsidiary of Wangzai Milk, has more than 1 million fans.
Xiaohongshu didn't settle in until mid-August last year.
At present, the mode of live streaming is even hotter, and Li Ziyuan should pay more attention to the construction of online channels.
In such a fierce track, the earthy, ugly, and money-saving plum orchard can still retain a place, and its business strategy does not need to be elaborated too much.
But this does not mean that Li Ziyuan does not have a crisis, a top priorityLi Ziyuan urgently needs to launch a new product that is differentiated and can be deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, rather than living in the story of the past.
Do people still buy plum orchards now?What's your favorite taste?In our comment area, we reminisce about the years like waterWelcome to leave a message to discuss, express your opinions or opinions, thank you.