On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched the Al-Aqsa flood operation to hit Israel.
Israel then counterattacked, declaring war on Hamas, striking Hamas in all directions. The conflict has been going on for two months now.
Hamas was too weak, and under the blows of the IDF, Hamas was cornered, either capitulating or being eliminated.
Hamas members captured by Israel. )
There are two main reasons why Hamas is completely defeated strategically and tactically, and there is a high probability that it will die.
One, internal reasons for Hamas.
1. Hamas's political leaders in Qatar and military leaders in Gaza failed to communicate in depth on strategic issues and misjudged the international situation.
During the Al-Aqsa flood operation, Hamas kidnapped and killed foreign civilians, and uploaded the scene to the Internet, completely hitting its own protective umbrella, the white left of the West.
Angelina Jolie in Gaza. )
Hamas has been able to confront Israel so far, not because Hamas is more capable of fighting, but because of the pressure of the Western white left on Israel.
In this Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, most of the Muslims living in the West supported Hamas, and because Hamas went too far this time, it led to the reflection of the white left in the West and the ** of the right. led to Western countries, and did not put much pressure on Israel to force Israel to ceasefire.
The new Prime Minister of the Netherlands is far-right and extremely anti-Hamas. )
2. Hamas's military leaders in Gaza do not have enough control over the Hamas armed forces.
I believe that the top level of Hamas in Gaza is not stupid enough to upload the attack on foreign civilians to the international network, and it is likely that there is not enough control and the spontaneous behavior of the grassroots people.
Second, the Arab countries are divided into their own national interests, each with its own thoughts. Because opposition to Israel is politically correct in the Arab world, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are forced to condemn Israel on the surface, but behind the scenes they are angry at the chaos created by Hamas, hoping that Israel will eliminate Hamas as soon as possible. Egypt has no money, it is almost out of food, and if the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict produces a large number of refugees entering Egypt, Egypt will not be able to provide food and shelter, and according to the nature of Hamas, it will definitely create chaos in Egypt.
Egypt's garbage-ridden slums. )
The Saudi princes are facing strong pressure from the Shiites in Iran, who want not only land, people, and oil, but also the lives of the princes.
At present, Israel does not have the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia, Israel cannot even eat the West Bank and Gaza, but Israel is the help of Saudi Arabia in its fight against Iran. Before Israel poses a mortal threat to Saudi Arabia and Iran, no country has the ability to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran together, and the core interests are irreconcilable.
Turkish Erdogan, as always, fired the loudest with his mouth, but with no real action.
There are two reasons for this: 1. Consolidate the rule by inciting domestic public opinion.
2. Erdogan's mouth is shelling Israel, but in fact he is pointing his sword at Syria, with the goal of eliminating Kurdish independence forces and expanding his sphere of influence in Syria. As for the current Israel, Turkey is no threat either.
Iran and the Shia arc. Hamas is so big this time, it is very likely that it did not consult with Iran, Iran gave so much money, but Hamas acted on its own, Khamenei must be annoyed, because this is Hamas causing trouble for Iran for its own interests.
Thus, on the one hand, Iran severed its ties with Hamas and the Al-Aqsa flood operation. On the other hand, for the sake of face, they also kept talking about it, and let the Lebanese Allah Party and the Husseto shoe army carry out sporadic attacks as solidarity.
Mankind has now entered the information age, and there are no more isolated islands on the earth.
In particular, the Israeli-Arab conflict, which involves the world's superpower balanceFor the Palestinians to establish a state, they must be politically more important than military. Hamas's October 7 attack, killing and abduction of foreign civilians and uploading them to the international network announced the inevitable defeat of Hamas.