The Shanghai and Shenzhen property markets ushered in a blockbuster benefit, and real estate investors ate meat in the morning
The most beautiful is sunset red!
On December 14, the blockbuster real estate policies of Beijing and Shanghai were released on the same day, and market confidence was boosted. At noon on December 15, the A-share real estate sector rose nearly 2%, SIIC Development, Jingneng Real Estate, Dalong Real Estate, New Huangpu rose by the limit, BII Development and *ST Tongda rose by more than 5%, and Vanke A, the top three in market capitalization, rose by 267%, Poly Development rose 403%, China Merchants Shekou rose 456%。
Top 10 real estate gainers.
*: Aniu Zhitou.
Bullish shareholders said: "Financing is full", "This time is expected to double", bearish shareholders said: "Sunset industry", "If it rises, it will not be sold, and its head will burn out". What should you think about the real estate industry and real estate?
Wang Liang, chief investment consultant of Aniu Intelligent Investment, said that the real estate policies of first-tier cities have been loosened, which means that there is basically little hope for third- and fourth-tier cities. Now it is necessary to rely on the first-tier cities to support the real estate industry and the economy, and the real estate may have some opportunities in the first-tier cities. In the past one or two years, the supply side of the whole real estate has contracted and the demand side has accumulated, and there may be a stable stage in the future, but the particularly high growth is not daring to think, and the players will become fewer, and the real estate demand will become less and less at present.
Beijing and Shanghai have lowered down payments and interest rates, will you buy them?
On December 14, Beijing further optimized and adjusted its real estate policy. Among them, the construction area and standard of ordinary houses have been appropriately raisedAt the same time, the minimum down payment ratio for new mortgages issued will be lowered and the loan term will be extended, and the minimum down payment ratio for first home loans will be reduced to 30%.The minimum down payment ratio for second home loans has been lowered to 50% in the six urban districts and 40% in the six non-urban districts, and the mortgage tenure has been restored from the current maximum of 25 years to 30 years. In addition, from December 15, the lower limit of the interest rate policy for new housing loans issued by commercial banks will also be reduced.
On the same day, Shanghai announced that it would optimize its differentiated housing credit policy from December 15. Among them, the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home commercial loan is adjusted to not be lower than the market interest rate (LPR) of the corresponding term loan minus 10 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to not less than 30%;The lower limit of the interest rate for second-home commercial loans is adjusted to not less than LPR plus 30 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio is adjusted to not less than 50%;The Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan have implemented differentiated policies, and the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial loans for second homes has been adjusted to no less than LPR plus 20 basis points, and the minimum down payment ratio has been adjusted to no less than 40%.
In addition, Shanghai has also adjusted the standard of ordinary housing, first, it has optimized the identification conditions of the standard and eliminated the first standard;The second is to moderately increase the floor area standard, from 140 square meters to 144 square meters.
The best and worst of real estate are over?
Net profit of the real estate sector over the years.
*: Dian Palm Finance.
Judging from the net profit of the past five years, the real estate market is still prosperous from 2018 to 2020;Since 2021, the real estate performance has declined sharply, there will be obvious losses in 2022, and the loss will continue in 2023, and it seems difficult to be optimistic in 2024. As the real estate crisis lifts one after another, the worst should be behind us.
On December 15, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the national economic situation in November 2023. At the meeting, Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the overall recovery of the economy, and at the same time under the effect of a series of optimization and adjustment policies in the real estate sector, some indicators of the recent real estate market continue to show signs of marginal improvement. From January to November, the national real estate development investment fell by 9 percent year-on-year4%, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8%, and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 52%, and the area of new housing starts fell by 212%, judging by these data, the real estate market is still in a correction.
The just-concluded ** economic work conference pointed out that it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, it is also pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for "ordinary and emergency" purposes, and the transformation of urban villages. In addition, it is necessary to improve the relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development. Judging from these policies, in the future, with the further deepening of the implementation of relevant policies in the real estate field in various regions and departments, the policy effect will continue to appear, and the real estate market situation is expected to further improve.
Fang Guangming, senior investment consultant of Aniu Intelligent Investment, said that short-term fundamental changes are still the key to affecting the real estate sectorIn the medium and long term, real estate companies with advantages in financing and land acquisition, and continuously optimizing asset quality with the help of the industry adjustment period are expected to gradually win. Once the real estate stabilizes, the real estate industry chain companies are expected to usher in the stock price repair, and the ** index will stand at 3,000 points and stay away from 3,000 points.
If the content involves** is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!Investment is at your own risk. Investment is risky, and you should be cautious when entering the market.