China's demographic change is not only a social issue, but also a key to driving sustainable economic and environmental development.
China is the most populous country in the world and a country with rapid economic and social development. China's population issue has always been the focus of attention at home and abroad, and it is also an important factor affecting China's future development. In recent years, some new characteristics and trends have emerged in China's population development, such as the slowdown in total population growth, the acceleration of population aging, the improvement of population quality, the enhancement of population urbanization and mobility, the rationalization of the sex ratio of the population, and the reduction of household size. These demographic changes not only have a profound impact on China's social structure and social security, but also pose new challenges and opportunities for China's economic growth and environmental protection. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding and correct view of China's demographic changes is the key to promoting the sustainable development of China's economy and environment.
1. The impact of demographic change on Chinese society.
1) The pressure of an aging population on social security. With the decline in the birth rate and the extension of life expectancy, China's population is deepening. According to the data of the seventh national population census, the proportion of the elderly population aged 65 and above in China to the total population in 2020 was 135%, an increase of 46 percentage points. This proportion is expected to reach about 25% by 2030, when China will enter a stage of moderate aging. Population ageing means an increase in the social dependency ratio, i.e., an increase in the number of non-working-age people that need to be supported by each working-age population. In 2020, China's population dependency ratio was 459%, an increase of 117 percentage points. This has brought tremendous pressure to the social security system, such as the increase in demand for pension insurance, medical insurance, pension services, etc., while the corresponding fiscal expenditure and social resource supply are relatively insufficient. Therefore, how to establish and improve the social security system that adapts to the aging of the population is a major issue facing Chinese society.
2) The improvement of the quality of the population promotes social progress. Population quality refers to the comprehensive performance of the population in terms of health status, education level, skill level, innovation ability, etc. Improving the quality of the population is an important goal of population development and an important driving force for social progress. Over the past decade, the quality of China's population has improved significantly. In 2020, the illiteracy rate of China's population aged 15 and above was 267%, a decrease of 141 percentage points;For every 100,000 people, the number of people with university education (college degree or above) increased from 8,930 to 15,467, and the number of people with high Chinese education increased from 14,032 to 15,088. This shows that China has made great achievements in education, and the accumulation and quality improvement of human capital have provided strong support for economic and social development. At the same time, with the implementation of the Healthy China strategy, the health level of China's population has also improved significantly, and the average life expectancy of the population has increased from 74 in 20108 years old increased to 77 in 20203 years old. This shows that China's medical and health services have made remarkable progress, and the improvement of the health status of the population has provided an important guarantee for social stability and harmony.
3) Adjustment of social structure due to the increase of population urbanization and mobility. Urbanization and mobility are important aspects of population development and an important manifestation of social structural changes. Over the past decade, China's population has seen a significant increase in urbanization and mobility. In 2020, the urbanization rate of China's permanent population reached 6389 %, an increase of 14 percent from 201021 percentage points;The size of the floating population is nearly 3800 million people, a significant increase of 1500 million people. These changes reflect the adjustment of China's economic structure and industrial structure, as well as the reform of China's hukou system and urbanization policy. The urbanization and mobility of the population are conducive to promoting the optimal allocation of the population, improving the labor participation rate and labor efficiency of the population, expanding the consumption demand and market scale of the population, enhancing the social integration and cultural exchanges of the population, and promoting the coordinated development of the economy and society. At the same time, the urbanization and mobility of the population have also brought new challenges to social management and public services, such as how to protect the basic rights and interests of the floating population, how to improve the quality and level of urbanization, and how to solve the imbalance between urban and rural development, which need to be further strengthened research and exploration.
2. The impact of demographic change on China's economy.
1) The constraints of the slowdown in population growth on economic growth. Population is an important factor in economic development, and the growth of the total population can provide more labor and consumers for economic growth, as well as promote technological progress and innovative activities. However, with the decline in the birth rate and the acceleration of the aging population, China's total population growth momentum has weakened significantly, and is expected to peak between 2025 and 2030 and then gradually decline。This means that China's demographic dividend is about to disappear, and the potential for economic growth will be limited. Therefore, how to cope with the challenge of slowing population growth is a major issue facing China's economic development. On the one hand, it is necessary to stabilize the birth rate, extend the working life of the population, and increase the effective supply of the population by optimizing the population policyOn the other hand, it is necessary to improve production efficiency, enhance innovation ability, and improve the quality of economic growth by changing the mode of economic growth.
and 2) the impact of demographic change on economic structure.
and 2) the impact of demographic transition on economic structure. Population structure refers to the distribution of the population according to its age, gender, education, occupation, etc. The change of demographic structure will affect the change of economic structure, such as industrial structure, consumption structure, investment structure, etc. Over the past decade, China's demographic structure has undergone some important changes, such as an aging population, a more reasonable sex ratio, and a shrinking household size. These changes have had a profound impact on China's economic structure, such as promoting the development of service and high-tech industries, promoting consumption upgrading and diversification, and stimulating innovation investment and social investment. For example, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of China's tertiary industry accounted for 54 percent of GDP in 20205%, an increase of 9 from 20101 percentage point;In 2020, the per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents accounted for 12 percent of the expenditure on education, culture and entertainment1%, an increase of 36 percentage points. In 2020, China's total social expenditure on research and experimental development accounted for 2 percent of GDP4%, an increase of 07 percentage points. 。These changes reflect the transformation of China's economic structure to a higher level, better quality, and more efficient.
3) The improvement of the quality of the population supports economic development. The quality of the population is an important foundation for economic development, and the improvement of the quality of the population can provide better human resources for economic development, and can also provide a stronger endogenous driving force for economic development. Over the past decade, there has been a significant improvement in the quality of China's population, such as higher levels of education, improved health, and improved skills. These improvements have played an important role in supporting China's economic development, such as increasing the labor productivity and income level of the population, expanding the consumption capacity and market demand of the population, and enhancing the innovation ability and entrepreneurial activities of the population. For example, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the average salary of employed persons in urban units in China in 2020 was 93,347 yuan, an increase of 27 times;In 2020, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents was 32,189 yuan, an increase of 2 over 20103 times;In 2020, the number of invention patents per 10,000 people in China was 258 pieces, an increase of 5 from 20106 times. These data show that the improvement of the quality of China's population has provided strong support for China's economic development.
3. The impact of demographic change on China's environment.
1) Easing environmental pressures from the slowdown in population growth. Population is one of the important sources of environmental problems, and the growth of total population will lead to the consumption of resources and the emission of pollution, which will cause great pressure on the environment. However, with the decline in the birth rate and the acceleration of the aging population, China's total population growth momentum has weakened significantly, and is expected to peak between 2025 and 2030 and then gradually decline。This means that China's population pressure will gradually reduce, and environmental problems will hopefully be alleviated. Therefore, how to seize the opportunity of the slowdown in population growth is a major issue facing China's environmental protection. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, optimize the allocation of resources, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, and reduce resource waste and pollution emissionsOn the other hand, it is necessary to improve environmental quality, restore ecosystems, and enhance ecological services by strengthening environmental governance.
and 2) changes in environmental demands due to demographic shifts. Population structure is an important factor affecting environmental demand, and the change of population structure will lead to changes in environmental demand, such as ecological environment, living environment, working environment, etc. Over the past decade, China's demographic structure has undergone some important changes, such as an aging population, increased urbanization and mobility, and shrinking household sizes. These changes have had a profound impact on China's environmental needs, such as increasing awareness and participation in the protection of the ecological environment, increasing the comfort and aesthetics of the living environment, and improving the safety and health of the working environment. For example, according to data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2020, China's urban residents' satisfaction with the ecological environment was 758%, an increase of 105 percentage points;In 2020, the satisfaction of urban residents with housing conditions in China was 796%, an increase of 97 percentage points. In 2020, the satisfaction of urban residents with the working environment in China was 774%, an increase of 8 from 20109 percentage points. These changes reflect the changing demand for the environment in response to China's demographic shift, as well as the effectiveness of China's environmental construction and improvement.
3) The improvement of population quality promotes environmental governance. The quality of the population is an important factor affecting environmental governance, and the improvement of the quality of the population can provide a higher ability and level for environmental governance, and can also provide a stronger motivation and willingness for environmental governance. Over the past decade, there has been a significant improvement in the quality of China's population, such as higher levels of education, improved health, and improved skills. These improvements have played an important role in promoting China's environmental governance, such as increasing the population's environmental knowledge and skills, improving the population's environmental responsibility and actions, and enhancing the population's environmental innovation and cooperation. For example, according to data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in 2020, 78 percent of urban residents in China were concerned about environmental issues6%, an increase of 112 percentage points;In 2020, the participation of urban residents in environmental protection in China was 764%, an increase of 103 percentage points;In 2020, the support of urban residents for environmental protection in China was 802%, an increase of 9 from 20108 percentage points. These data show that the improvement of the quality of China's population has provided a powerful boost to China's environmental governance.
4. The significance of demographic change for China's sustainable economic and environmental development.
1) Demographic change provides an opportunity for sustainable economic and environmental development. As the growth of the total population slows, the population pressure will gradually reduce, providing favorable conditions for sustainable economic and environmental development. On the one hand, the slowdown in total population growth will reduce the consumption of resources and pollution to the environment, creating space and time for environmental protection and restorationOn the other hand, the slowdown in total population growth will promote economic transformation and upgrading, providing impetus and direction for economic growth and structural adjustment. Therefore, demographic change provides an opportunity for sustainable economic and environmental development, and it is necessary to seize this opportunity to achieve coordinated development of population, economy and environment.
2) Demographic change presents challenges for sustainable economic and environmental development. With the acceleration of population ageing, demographic transformation, population quality improvement, population needs and expectations have also changed, providing challenges for sustainable economic and environmental development. On the one hand, the acceleration of population aging will increase the burden of social security, affect the potential for economic growth, change the consumption structure and preferences of the population, and affect the demand and carrying capacity of the environmentOn the other hand, the demographic transformation and the improvement of the quality of the population will promote the diversification and high-quality development of the economy and environment, and will also improve the requirements and standards of the population for the economy and the environment, which will affect the supply and satisfaction of the economy and the environment. Therefore, demographic change provides a challenge for sustainable economic and environmental development, and it is necessary to address this challenge and achieve balanced development of population, economy and environment.
3) Demographic change provides the impetus for sustainable economic and environmental development. With the urbanization and mobility of the population, the quality of the population has improved, and the ability of the population to innovate and cooperate has also been enhanced, providing the impetus for sustainable economic and environmental development. On the one hand, population urbanization and enhanced mobility will promote the optimal allocation of population, improve the labor participation rate and labor efficiency of the population, expand the consumption demand and market scale of the population, enhance the social integration and cultural exchanges of the population, and promote the coordinated development of the economy and societyOn the other hand, the improvement of the quality of the population and the enhancement of the ability of innovation and cooperation will promote the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge and skills of the population, improve the innovation ability and entrepreneurial activities of the population, enhance the environmental responsibility and action of the population, and promote the innovative development of the economy and the environment. Therefore, demographic change provides the impetus for sustainable economic and environmental development, and this dynamic needs to be harnessed to achieve win-win development of population, economy and environment.
In conclusion, China's demographic change is a complex phenomenon that benefits and harms China's economic and environmental sustainability。Therefore, it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding and correct view of China's population change, grasp the laws and trends of population change, formulate and implement policies and measures in line with population change, promote the harmonious development of population, economy and environment, and contribute to the construction of a beautiful and happy China. .