In the upcoming first half of 2024, there will be six major trends in our country, which will directly affect our lives and economic environment. First of all, residents will become more and more aware of saving money, and people will begin to pay more attention to saving to cope with emergencies. Second, mortgage interest rates are expected to fall further, which is a boon for people who need to buy a home. Third, prices will continue**, and consumers should buy and stock up on the goods they need in advance. House prices will also continue to adjust to provide more opportunities for home buyers. In addition, the decline in the marriage rate and the increase in the divorce rate will continue, and the pension industry will usher in new development opportunities. Let's know ahead and prepare for the changes ahead.
In the past, middle-aged and elderly people were the main force of saving. However, with the outbreak of the pandemic and the increase in various uncertainties, more and more young people are joining the ranks of saving. According to the data, the increase in residents' deposits in the first three quarters of 2023 reached 1442 trillion yuan. The main reason why people's enthusiasm for saving has increased is to cope with emergencies such as unemployment and illness. At the same time, due to the current uncertain investment environment and high risks, the return of keeping money in the bank is more stable and reliable.
Since 2023, the real estate market has faced a serious downturn, with poor sales. In order to stimulate the market, mortgage interest rates have been lowered one after another. At present, the domestic mortgage interest rate has fallen below 4%, and even as low as 3 in some areas6%。It is expected that as the real estate market continues to be sluggish, some banks will further reduce mortgage interest rates to provide more choices and convenience for people who need to buy a home.
Prices in China will vary from year to varying degrees, especially commodities closely related to life are more likely to be affected. This is mainly because China's economic growth relies on loose monetary policy, and after a large amount of money enters the financial system, part of the capital flows into the commodity market. As a result, prices are expected to continue in 2024**. It is recommended that consumers should buy as soon as possible if they have a demand, and reserve moderately to avoid the pressure that *** brings to life.
In 2023, China's housing prices will be double-**, and the sales of new and second-hand houses will not be smooth. With restrictions on housing prices lifted in many places, developers can decide for themselves whether and how much to reduce prices. At the same time, the second-hand housing market has surged, and sellers have begun to take the initiative to reduce prices. This will be the main trend in 2024, and families with strong demand for housing will have the opportunity to pick up the leaks.
In 2023, China's marriage rate will hit a record low, and many post-90s young people are reluctant to get married. The main reason is the high cost of marriage, which requires all the savings to buy a house, a car, and various wedding expenses and debts. In contrast, celibacy is more liberating. At the same time, the divorce rate is also rising, especially after flash marriages. Many young people only find out that they are not suitable for each other after they get married, and eventually choose to divorce. This trend will continue in 2024.
As China enters a moderately aging society, the size of the elderly population over 60 years old exceeds 2800 million people, with more than 300 million expected by 2025. This will bring great pressure to the pension distribution, but also bring new opportunities to the pension industry. It is expected that in 2024, there will be more ** and private capital to invest in the construction of nursing homes. At the same time, there is a lack of a large number of caregivers in society to take care of the elderly. Therefore, starting from next year, the pension industry will usher in new development opportunities.
In the first half of 2024, a series of changes will take place in China's economy and society. Residents' awareness of saving money will continue to increase, mortgage interest rates will be further reduced, and the pressure on prices and housing prices will continue to exist. The decline in the marriage rate of the family and the increase in the divorce rate will continue, and the pension industry will usher in development opportunities. In the face of these changes, we need to understand and prepare in advance to deal with the risks and challenges that may arise in the future. Whether it is the importance of savings, the choice of buying a house, or the rational view of prices, housing prices, marriage and divorce, we need to keep a clear head and continue to pay attention. Only by being prepared can we better cope with the changes ahead. This will be a year full of opportunities and challenges, and we look forward to future development and growth.