First, the variety of raw materials
(1) Iron ore
(2) Coal and coke
(3) Scrap steel
On the one hand, the overall winter scrap resources in the market are tight, on the other hand, the cost-effective advantage of scrap steel over molten iron is still obvious, and some steel mills have opened winter storage and replenishment, which has obvious support for scrap demand. However, with the increase in production reduction and maintenance at the end of the year, the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces continued to weaken, and the kinetic energy of scrap steel may weaken accordingly. As a result, scrap is expected to run in a narrow or narrow range this week.
(4) Billet
At present, the performance of terminal demand is poor, and at the same time, the inventory of billet rolling enterprises is high, and the enthusiasm of downstream rolling enterprises to resume production in the short term is not high, and the rhythm of billet mining remains cautiousIn the first link, due to the continuous maintenance of the trend of adjustment, the spot basis operation is more cautious, and it continues to be dominated by the far month. On the supply side, although it has continued to maintain a high level in the near future, short-term storage is expected to shrink. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the market may show a trend of weakening adjustment this week.
Second, the situation of various varieties of steel
(1) Construction steel
At present, there are fewer macro disturbances, from the perspective of fundamental data, the speed of rebar accumulation has slowed down, coupled with the continuous reduction of the first end, the accumulation of supply and demand contradictions is limited, and the downward pressure is insufficient. There is still an expectation of replenishment at the raw material end, and the cost of steel prices has formed a certain support, and it is expected that construction steel will still maintain a narrow range this week.
(2) Medium and heavy plates
The weak pattern of supply and demand continues, and the cost resilience supports, and it is expected that the medium and heavy plates will run in a narrow range this week.
(3) Hot and cold rolling
Hot coil: consumption resilience still exists, steel mill profits are difficult to change, the inventory pressure in the north is slightly reflected, the pressure in the south is still slow, the fundamentals will continue to weaken due to seasonality, but it is difficult to cause substantial negative effects on the market in the short term.
Cold rolling: With the shrinking demand in the north, the regional price difference or continues to expand, there is the possibility of the north to the south, in the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, cold rolling ** also lacks the power of the first.
(4) Stainless steel
From the current supply and demand side, the social treasury is low, resources are relatively tight, the cost of goods is high, and the willingness to adjust prices or sell goods at low prices is lowIn addition, the market has begun to carry out the rhythm of payment to delivery, the downstream in the pressure of funds and the uncertainty of the first, the mentality of stockpiling is cautious, and the situation of weak supply and demand is expected to maintain a stable situation this week.
Disclaimer: All the data in the article comes from Ganglian data and mysteel research, and the views will change with the changes in the market, please communicate in time.
The market is risky, and you need to be cautious.