The credit rating of the United States has been ruthlessly deprived!
However, being demoted was only the trigger, and the resulting problems were erupting one by one.
But even in this case, the Fed's ** still said that it does not rule out a further rate hike in September, which is completely contrary to market expectations.
It now seems that U.S. commercial real estate is likely to be the next target of the explosion, and the risk is escalating and could spread to the entire U.S. residential market at any time.
According to the latest data model**,The value of US GDP growth in the third quarter will reach a staggering 39%。
A boost in consumer confidence and an improvement in the job market drove the growth in consumer spending. In addition, corporate investment is also gradually picking up, injecting vitality into economic growth.
The job market also continues to show strengthThe latest employment data suggests that the number of new jobs is now 190,000 more than previously expected.
This indicates that U.S. businesses are more confident in the economic recovery and are willing to increase the number of people employed, bringing more opportunities to the labor market. The improvement in the job market has further boosted consumer confidence, creating a virtuous circle.
This series of good economic data has given the Fed the confidence to raise interest rates. According to market expectations, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again in September to deal with inflationary pressures from the economic recovery.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will inevitably increase mortgage interest rates, but unexpectedly, the emergence of another black swan has led to an accelerating increase in mortgage interest rates.
The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by rating agencies has led to an increase in the selling of damaged U.S. TreasuriesPushed the 10-year Treasury yield** to 402% level.
This change not only has an impact on U.S.** debt, but also has a direct impact on the interest rates associated with it.
At the same time, the latest data show thatThe U.S. commercial real estate vacancy rate has reached 131% level.
This means that more and more commercial properties are at risk of losing tenants and falling rents. Landlords are facing increasing pressure on loans and rental incomes continue to decline, leaving them in a double dilemma.
In this context,1US$5 trillion (equivalent to about 10 trillion yuan) of commercial real estate debt faces a severe risk of default.
Damaged credit in U.S. debt and a weak commercial real estate market can lead to defaults on home owners who may not be able to repay their debts on time. This will have a significant impact on financial markets and further exacerbate economic instability.
While the risk of default increases, financial institutions and investors also face the risk of loss. Financial institutions that hold commercial real estate debt may be exposed to balance sheet risk, while investors may face investment losses.
These risks can easily be transmitted to the residential market, not just commercial properties.
Recent data on the U.S. residential market has not been as bad as commercial real estate, and even gives the illusion that the residential market is improving.
However, some industry experts pointed out that this appearance may only be a short-term recovery phenomenon, due to problems in commercial real estate, some funds have been transferred to the residential market, temporarily boosting its performance.
Survey data shows that if the loan interest rate exceeds 5%, the willingness to sell a home will double.
The concern is that as the Fed raises interest rates and Treasury yields continue to rise, more and more household lending rates could exceed the 5% threshold. Once the loan interest rate exceeds 5%, this situation will be difficult to reverse and may have a negative impact on the residential market.
The subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 is all the way aroundUnlike commercial real estate, the holders of the residential market, mainly ordinary households, are more susceptible to emotions, and once the sell-off begins, the panic mentality will be amplified in a short period of time.
At that time, U.S. Treasuries**, U.S. home prices**, and the U.S. dollar may accelerate at a record pace**.
Some financial commentators in the United States have warned the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates easily, otherwise the dollar on the gambling table may lose all its money.
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