China's third C919 large passenger aircraft has been delivered to China Eastern Airlines, and it will soon fly over Victoria Harbor for demonstration. All parties cheered, which seemed to mean that European and American airworthiness certificates are no longer a necessity, and the domestic market is completely sufficient.
However, there are also doubts: at the Dubai Air Show, China's large aircraft did not receive any particles, but Boeing signed a large order of 52 billion US dollars;Even more worryinglyIts total orders have exceeded 1,000 aircraft, while the annual production capacity of Shanghai Pudong ** base is only 2Frame.
The practical problem makes people have to think deeply: what are the future prospects of our large aircraft?
"Made an empty shell"?
Since its birth, it has carried the "big aircraft dream" of the Chinese people, until the successful commercial first flight, and the 50-year expectation has been fulfilled. But the voices of doubt have not stopped:"The domestic production rate is only 60%", the engineImported from the United States"The European and American airworthiness certificates have not yet been obtained".
Realistically speaking, this assertion is not unreasonable, we can clearly see from the structural diagram that the engine, power system, and avionics system are imported from abroad, and 60% of our independent production is concentrated in the fuselage structure.
But we also need to make a horizontal comparison of this data, because even Boeing and Airbus, which share the world equally in the field of civil aviation, have an autonomy rate of less than 40%, which is much lower than that of China's large aircraft.
At the previous Dubai Airshow, although Boeing won a large order of 52 billion US dollars, its main order was a large wide-body aircraft, while the C919 was a short-range narrow-body passenger aircraft, mainly used for short-range flights, and the two could not be compared. What's more, it has won more than 1,000 orders, and the number of orders is not inferior to Boeing.
At present, the main orders for large aircraft come from China, but it seems to be sufficient. According to the analysis data of the international aviation analysis company Ricvic, it is expected that by 2040, COMAC will deliver 1,124 aircraft to domestic airlines, accounting for about 14% of the total market. Hong Kong media is even more bold, for the first domestic large aircraft, it does not matter whether it has obtained the European and American airworthiness certificates, and the huge domestic demand is completely enough to support future development.
Mission critical: Expansion of production capacity
The key to domestic large aircraft now is not technology, but more importantly, to expand production capacity and mass production in time!”
According to public data, the annual production capacity of its Shanghai Pudong ** base is only about 20 aircraft. At this rate, it will take at least a few decades to fulfill the thousands of orders that exist. Although many Boeing factories around the world are facing the dilemma of suspending production, they can still complete the production of one 737 aircraft every day with years of technology accumulation.
Interestingly, according to Reuters, Boeing, which was once invincible, recently announced that it had a 50% strategic layoff in key departments, and this seems to be an important opportunity for us to catch up.
In this regard, domestic experts collectively call for us to solve the problem of mass production as soon as possible, but we have many successful precedents for this. In recent decades, many domestic technologies have been overtaken under the control of others, such as cutting-edge life double force technology, hand-torn steel, high-speed rail wheels, etc.
In recent years, while the quality of life of the people has improved, the hidden dangers that hinder the healthy aging of the people have increased. However, China is still in a blank in technology, so it takes the initiative to connect with foreign mature cutting-edge science and technology.
Modern medical data have shown that its core substance, Kaempfera parviflora, can inhibit PDE5 and help blood flow relaxSaw palmetto, on the other hand, can inhibit DHT and maintain the "life glands".
Just as large aircraft mainly rely on the domestic civil aviation market, the emerging "Beiliin" technology is also highly dependent on the Chinese market, and its four-digit unit price is not cheap. It is reported that our country 405% of middle-aged men have problems such as "lack of energy", and the resulting potential consumer group can reach hundreds of millions.
In order to take the health of the Chinese people into their own hands as soon as possible, with the popularity of the above-mentioned technology on platforms such as JD.com, many domestic universities and other teams are also conducting research on its principles. I believe that it will not take long for us to achieve breakthroughs in the corresponding fields.
The production plan was raised to 1Frame.
Data shows that in the next 20 years, more than 40,000 new aircraft will be delivered worldwide, with a value of more than 6$4 trillion. The domestic demand for passenger aircraft is expected to be more than 8,000 aircraft.
After the advent of large aircraft, China's civil aviation has given priority to supporting local development. In addition to the delivery of the third aircraft to China Eastern Airlines, it also arrived in Hong Kong today and will fly twice over Victoria Harbour in the future. "The planes that flew over Victoria Harbour were all foreign-made, so this flight demonstration was very symbolic. ”
The person in charge of COMAC once revealed in an interview that in order to ensure timely commercial operation, in 2023, it is expected that the production plan will be increased to 150 aircraft.